说完消息面，再来看市场走势。我认为今日市场大概率以上涨为主，原因如下：一方面，虽然昨日欧美 主要指数出现分化，但整体基本保持稳定，大宗商品方面，现货黄金跳水，跌幅近1%，铜在"懂王"宣 布征收附加关税后探底回升，从大跌3%回到涨1.86%，其他方向基本稳定，汇率小幅贬值，A50小幅震 荡，总体虽偏弱但还算稳定。不过外部环境只是辅助，关键在于A股自身。另一方面，从A股自身来 看，昨日市场已化解压力，上周五三大指数冲高回落，放量冲高回落本是压力信号，但周一小幅震荡 后，昨日市场明显修复，基本修复了上影线位置，且盘中刷新高点，表明压力化解基本结束，有助于推 动市场反攻。此外，昨日三大指数涨幅扩大，给出中阳线，代表做多力量增加，也有助于推动市场反 攻。而且昨日市场大幅放量超2400亿，说明场外资金开始进场，市场上涨靠资金推动，资金进场可推动 指数继续上攻，也表明主力资金未离场，有助于市场反攻。权重板块、科技以及新能源方向继续表现， 综合来看，整体行情未结束，今日市场大概率上涨。那么出现这种情况后该如何应对？其实很简单，主 要以持有做多为主。若手中品种未经历大涨，维持在5日均线、10日均线横盘震荡，继续等待即可，大 概 ...

分析师：关税消息将成为本周原油价格的主要不确定因素 金十数据5月26日讯，周一亚洲早盘油价上涨，此前美国总统特朗普延长了与欧盟贸易谈判的最后期 限，缓解了人们对美国对欧盟征收关税可能损害全球经济和燃料需求的担忧。IG市场分析师Tony Sycamore表示："在特朗普延长最后期限后，原油和美国股票期货上涨。贸易和关税消息以及持续的财 政担忧将成为本周风险情绪和原油价格的主要不确定因素。" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of FEI at the bottom rebounded significantly, with high - level exports from the Middle East and medium - low - level exports from Russia. The East - West arbitrage logistics remained stable, and the overall supply of naphtha was stable. The impact of US naphtha on the Asian market was limited. The demand for naphtha decreased due to the increased propane procurement in Japan and South Korea, and the FEI - MOPJ spread rebounded significantly. The cracking profit of naphtha dropped to an extremely low level year - on - year, and the negative feedback of cracking units was expected to be delayed [8]. - For ethylene, whether the tariff is maintained or not, it has a limited impact on the domestic and Asian ethylene markets. The upstream and downstream are basically matched, and the expected supply - demand reduction of affected units can be compensated by imports to some extent. The actual gap will be balanced by the negative feedback of downstream demand [8]. - In the case of no tariff impact, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet shows a structural gap. After the partial restart of Southeast Asian units this week, the balance sheet tightened slightly in April, but the overall gap is still equivalent to the maintenance volume of 1 - 2 ethylene cracking units. After the US dollar price of ethylene actively declined this week and the profit was compressed by the strengthening of naphtha, the future dynamic balance is expected to deteriorate [86]. - Under the continuous impact of tariffs, the demand for Asian naphtha will increase in the near - term. However, due to the improved economic efficiency of propane for Japanese and South Korean factories, the degree of propane substitution in these factories will gradually increase. Eventually, the market will return to the supply - demand situation of cracking units [87]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Naphtha Part 3.1.1 Price and Spot - The price of naphtha in Asia strengthened this week, and the cracking profit dropped to a year - on - year low. The spot market was tight at the end of the month, but the willingness of factories to stock up in the future decreased due to the rapid decline in ethylene cracking profit [10][11]. - The naphtha premium fluctuated this week, and the monthly spread structure changed little. The global naphtha price difference showed that the European support was relatively strong, and the East - West spread was repaired month - on - month [12][16]. - The overseas gasoline cracking spread rebounded this week, showing seasonal characteristics. The EIA data was optimistic, with a significant reduction in refined oil inventories in the US and a rapid decline in gasoline inventories. The European inventory remained high [18][21]. - The export quota of refined oil in 2025 changed, with a decrease in general trade quota and an increase in processing trade quota. The overall export plan of refined oil in April remained stable, with low exports of gasoline and diesel and high exports of jet fuel [26]. - The price difference between gasoline and naphtha in Europe and the US remained stable, and both gasoline and naphtha strengthened this week [27]. 3.1.2 Valuation - The global naphtha cracking spread strengthened this week, but the downstream profit weakened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the decline after the end of the pricing cycle [41]. - The Asian ethylene cracking profit declined significantly this week, and the FEI cracking profit declined year - on - year, but the substitution economy of Japan and South Korea was still better than that of naphtha [47]. - The Asian aromatics profit declined rapidly, while the change in Europe and the US was not significant month - on - month [59]. - The overseas refinery profit rebounded this week, while the domestic refinery profit continued to decline [64]. 3.1.3 Supply and Demand Balance - In terms of supply, the exports from major regions such as the Middle East, Russia, and the US changed little this week. The global CDU maintenance changed little week - on - week [66][67]. - In terms of demand, the substitution economy of propane raw materials in Japan and South Korea increased, and the demand for naphtha from CDU decreased [74]. - In the balance sheet, under the assumption of tariff mitigation, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet has a structural gap; under the assumption of continuous tariffs, the near - term demand for Asian naphtha will increase, but the substitution of propane will gradually increase [86][87]. 3.2 Ethylene Part 3.2.1 Global Capacity and Logistics - In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China, while the capacity in other regions remains basically unchanged [107]. - Asia is the main pricing area. Japan and South Korea are exporters in Asia, while China and Chinese Taipei are importers. The US exports ethylene to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and Europe has a net export of 3 - 4 million tons [109]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The price of ethylene in the domestic market remained stable this week, and the import profit increased. The downstream profit of ethylene derivatives was differentiated, with the profit of ethylene glycol and styrene weakening, while the profit of plastics remained stable and the profit of ethylene oxide remained high [110][115]. - The overseas downstream profit of ethylene derivatives remained at a relatively high level, and the overall chemical profit in Europe and the US was healthy [122]. 3.2.3 Supply and Demand Balance - This week, the maintenance of Asian ethylene cracking units changed little. Attention should be paid to the possible delayed restart and additional maintenance of Asian cracking units in May after the consumption of cheap raw materials and in a loss state [75][130]. - The domestic downstream production capacity of ethylene will increase in 2025, with significant growth in the production capacity of plastics, ethylene glycol, styrene, and other products [131].