Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Justice is planning to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with a senior official urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that inflation remains high and on an upward trend, indicating no reason for a rate cut if a meeting were held tomorrow [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but the labor market's direction is concerning and warrants close monitoring [1] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that while some recent inflation data shows signs of easing, a surprising surge in service prices poses a "danger signal" [3] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in September, while a 75% probability exists for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The global central bank annual meeting commenced in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with market participants closely watching Fed Chair Powell's speech for insights on future monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The U.S. reported an increase in the August composite PMI to 55.4, the highest in eight months, while initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May [4] - The market is experiencing mixed signals due to the conflicting economic data, contributing to fluctuations in trading [4] Group 4 - The current outlook for gold remains bearish, with expectations of further declines towards key support levels [6] - The market is observing resistance at the 3350 area, with potential downward movements if this level is not sustained [8] - Key support levels are identified at 3325-20, with further critical support at 3300 and 3280 [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve, particularly his call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook, indicating potential legal implications for Cook [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting reveal that inflation risks have overshadowed concerns about the labor market, leading to internal divisions regarding interest rate policies [1] - NATO member countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine during a recent video conference, emphasizing the importance of achieving a just and lasting peace [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising from around 3311 to a peak of 3351, driven by Trump's demands regarding the Federal Reserve [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes was anticipated, with gold showing a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart [2] - Despite the recent bullish trend, the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish, with targets set at 3245 and potentially down to 3000-2950 [5] Group 3 - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and manufacturing statistics for August, are expected to influence market sentiment [6] - The market is at a critical juncture, with potential resistance levels identified at 3358-60 and 3370-75, while support is seen at 3330 and 3320 [7] - The overall market behavior suggests a pattern of initial declines followed by recoveries, with traders preparing for potential volatility as the September Fed meeting approaches [9]

Market Overview - The market is currently focused on two main aspects: the stability of geopolitical situations following US-Russia talks and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The outcome of the US-Russia talks remains unclear, which may reduce market demand for gold as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has broken below the key support level of 3330, indicating a shift to a bearish trend [2][3] - The current support levels for gold are identified at 3300 and 3280, with 3300 being a trendline support and 3280 being the lower Bollinger Band support [2] - If gold maintains above these support levels, there may still be potential for a bullish reversal [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has also transitioned from a strong consolidation phase to a bearish trend, with a recent close below 37.5 [3][4] - The next support level for silver is at 36.5, and the overall long-term trend remains bullish despite the current adjustments [3] Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold contract closed around 773, indicating limited downside potential in the short term [3] - The domestic silver market has shown a significant decline, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a low of 9050 [4] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen a contract change to oilV25, with a current close around 62, and a critical support level at 61.2 [4] - If oil prices remain above 61.2, there is potential for a rebound, while a break below this level could lead to further bearish trends [4] Fuel Market Insights - The domestic fuel market has experienced a slow decline without significant momentum, closing around 2710 [4] - There is a need to observe if the market can establish a bottom and regain levels above 2800 for potential upward movement [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - Gold remains a focal asset for investors, influenced by economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policies [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset, despite a decrease in market sensitivity to these risks [1] - Economic data from the U.S. shows mixed results, with declining consumer confidence but stable employment, leading to increased uncertainty about the economic outlook and its impact on gold demand [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - The performance of U.S. economic data is crucial for gold prices, with potential for further support if data continues to underperform, possibly leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Divergence in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path creates volatility in the gold market, with some anticipating rate cuts while others expect the current policy to remain unchanged [3] Group 3: Market Performance - As of August 19, the London gold price was approximately $3,322 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of $8.64 or 0.26% from the previous day, with a weekly decline of 1.85% [4] - The gold market is currently in a state of consolidation, fluctuating within a narrow range of $3,320 to $3,370, with significant attention on geopolitical developments and their potential impact on gold prices [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are near the middle of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a balanced market, with short-term potential for continued range-bound trading [5] - The MACD indicator shows increasing bearish momentum, while the KDJ indicator indicates a potential for a rebound, though the overall trend remains downward [5] Group 5: Trading Recommendations - Short-term trading strategy suggests a high sell-low buy approach, with specific price targets and stop-loss levels outlined for both short and long positions [6][7] - Mid-term investors should closely monitor geopolitical risks and economic data, as worsening conditions could lead to a new upward trend in gold prices, with recommendations for gradual accumulation during pullbacks [7]

现状显示，美国对来自巴西的进口商品征收高达40%的从价关税，其中大部分产品的关税税率更是达到 了50%。此前，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体发声，施压要求巴西政府终止针对博索纳罗的司法调查程 序。对此，巴西总统卢拉坚决回应，强调巴西的司法体系独立运行，不容任何外部势力干涉或威胁，国 家机构的自主性神圣不可侵犯。 今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于773.22附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报775.96元/ 克，跌幅0.01%，最高触及776.98元/克，最低下探773.84元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 巴西财政部长费尔南多·阿达公开指出，当前巴西与美国之间的关税谈判已陷入僵持局面。 据阿达阐述，美方竟将贸易议题与巴西前总统博索纳罗所涉及的司法案件相捆绑，妄图推行一种违背巴 西宪法规定的解决方案。他明确表态："这样的要求绝无实现的可能，如今双方已然陷入僵局。" 他还提及，近年来巴美两国间的贸易规模呈现明显缩减态势，且未来不排除进一步下滑的风险。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 在国内黄金市场中，周一的波动幅度相对较小。尽管存在一定的上涨动力，然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation rebound, with a focus on short-term trading strategies until a clear breakout occurs [4][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a wide range of fluctuations, opening lower and then rising, with a minimum of 3323 and a maximum of 3358, before settling around 3326 [3]. - The current trend is identified as a bullish one, but the strength of the upward movement is under pressure due to a stronger dollar [4]. - The key resistance level for gold is set at 3360; if this level is broken, further upward movement is anticipated [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed limited upward momentum, peaking at 38.2 before retreating, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend above the support level of 37.5 [5][6]. - The target for silver is set at 38.5 and potentially 39 if upward momentum is strong enough [5]. Domestic Gold and Silver Contracts - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets of 785 and 790 depending on market strength [5]. - The domestic silver contract (沪银) is also projected to remain bullish as long as it stays above the support level of 9200, with potential targets of 9400 and 9550 [6]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil rebounded from a support level of 62, with a current price around 63.2, indicating a low-level oscillation [6]. - The focus is on whether the 62 support level holds; if it breaks, further declines may occur, potentially reaching 58 [6]. Fuel Oil Market Analysis - Domestic fuel oil is currently weak but is expected to hold above 2800, with potential for upward movement if a rebound occurs [7].

千里马常有，而伯乐不常有，人生最快意的三件事莫过于：棋逢对手，酒逢知己，将遇良才！实力打造 精典，成功绝非偶然！佛渡有缘人，我渡有心人！【关注"钟亿金"可享受独家操作计划】 （三）经济数据影响不容忽视 除了美联储主席讲话，美国等主要经济体即将公布的经济数据也将对黄金走势产生影响。例如零售销售 数据，若数据表现强劲，说明美国国内消费市场旺盛，经济复苏态势良好，将进一步打压降息预期，不 利于黄金价格。反之，若数据不及预期，显示经济增长乏力，将增加市场对降息的期盼，为黄金价格提 供支撑。 一、黄金市场回顾 本周上周五黄金市场呈现出先抑后稳的态势。周初，受美国7月PPI数据远超预期影响，市场对美联储9 月降息的预期大幅降温，美元指数走强，黄金价格承压跳水。周四，黄金一度创下近两周低点。尽管上 周五有所反弹，但整体依旧周跌1.5%左右，基本持平于3336美元。 二、影响本周黄金走势的基本面因素 （一）美联储政策预期是关键 本周，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话，这无疑是下周黄金市场的最大焦 点。目前市场对于美联储9月是否降息以及降息幅度存在较大分歧。若鲍威尔释放偏鹰派信号，强调通 胀压力仍需关注，暗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent PPI data release in the U.S. has significantly altered market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a substantial rate cut in September [2][4][6]. Group 1: PPI Data Impact - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 3.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.5% [2]. - The month-on-month PPI for July was 0.9%, also exceeding the previous value of 0.00% and market expectations of 0.20% [2]. - Experts noted that the impact of PPI data is more significant than that of CPI data, as PPI reflects price pressures at the production level [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Response - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped to around 85%, down from 100% [4]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a shift in sentiment, with concerns about the necessity of a 50 basis point cut being dismissed [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, a favored inflation measure by the Fed, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, influenced by tariffs [4]. Group 3: Political Reactions - President Trump, who had previously pressured Fed Chair Powell for rate cuts, has remained silent following the PPI data release, indicating a shift in the political narrative [6]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also begun to find excuses for previous statements regarding rate cuts, suggesting a retreat from aggressive rhetoric [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a high of 3374.9 and a low of 3329.8, ultimately closing at 3334.9 [8]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further declines in gold prices, targeting levels around 3330 and potentially lower [9][11].

Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data shows a mixed picture with the overall CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.0%, marking the highest level since February [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged to 98% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that the Fed should consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points in the upcoming decision [2] - Analysts predict a total of six rate cuts by the Fed, with three expected this year and one each quarter next year, ultimately bringing the rate down to 3% [2] Stock and Commodity Movements - U.S. stock markets rallied, with the S&P reaching a historical high, while the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields declined [4] - Gold experienced volatility post-CPI data, remaining within a trading range of $3330 to $3360 [4][5] Gold Market Analysis - After a significant drop in gold prices, the market showed reduced volatility, with trading primarily around $3350 [5] - The outlook for gold suggests a challenging environment for bulls, with potential downward targets set at $3330, $3315, and ultimately $3245 [7] - Short-term strategies indicate a focus on buying on dips while maintaining short positions at higher levels [10] Silver Market Insights - Silver showed stronger rebound potential compared to gold, with a focus on short positions after a brief rally [10]