Core Points - The nature of child-rearing has shifted from an investment for family continuity and elder support to a high-cost consumption activity for parents [2][5] - Economists, including Timothy Taylor from Stanford University, are exploring the economic implications of this transformation in child-rearing [3] Cost Analysis - The direct costs of raising children can be categorized into out-of-pocket expenses and opportunity costs, which include the value of time parents could have spent on other activities [6][7] - In low-income, agricultural economies, the direct costs of raising children were low, as children contributed labor to the household [8][9] - In the early 20th century, children provided significant income support to elderly parents, accounting for about one-third of income for families with males over 65 [10] Modern Costs - In high-income countries like the U.S., the out-of-pocket cost of raising a child is substantial, with estimates around $250,000, excluding college tuition and adult living expenses [21][22] - Housing remains the largest expense in child-rearing, with significant increases in housing and healthcare costs over time [20][21] Opportunity Costs - Women's opportunity costs have changed significantly, as more women enter the workforce and pursue higher education, leading to delayed childbirth and fewer children [24][29] - The average number of children born to women with different education levels shows a clear trend: higher education correlates with fewer children [31][32] Technological Impact - The introduction of birth control pills has significantly altered women's reproductive choices, allowing for greater participation in education and the workforce [35][36][41] Economic Returns - The economic benefits of having children have diminished over time, with social security and pensions reducing reliance on children for elder support [44][45] - The return on investment for parents has shifted towards having fewer children and investing more in each, as skill premiums in the labor market have increased [48][50] Consumption Perspective - The perception of children as a luxury good has emerged, with wealthier individuals spending more on child-rearing as income increases [54]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant decline in China's birth rate despite previous predictions of a baby boom following the implementation of the two-child policy [2][19][25] - In 2016, the first year of the "single two-child" policy, the birth rate increased to 17.86 million, but subsequent years saw a sharp decline, with 2023 recording only 9.02 million births [21][23] - Experts had predicted a sustained increase in births, estimating an annual addition of 20 million newborns, but the reality has shown a drastic drop, highlighting a gap between expectations and actual outcomes [14][25][27] Group 2 - The article outlines the historical context of China's population growth, noting a significant increase in births during the 1960s and 1970s, followed by the introduction of family planning policies [4][8][10] - The shift in societal attitudes towards family size and child-rearing costs has contributed to the declining birth rate, with many young people citing financial burdens as a primary reason for not having children [29][34][36] - The rising costs associated with raising children, including education and housing, have created a significant deterrent for young couples considering parenthood [31][32][34]