Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fiscal inflection point and pension new policy help the A-share ecosystem enter a new starting point of a "slow bull." Market funds have voted in advance under the policy combination. The central bank has increased support, and multi - ministry "anti - involution" actions are advancing to reshape profit expectations for a long - term bull market [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity in China will continue to be loose, in the policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September increases, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in the resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom" [2][11]. - The unexpected US inflation data last week put pressure on gold and silver, and the positive signals from the US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The long - term driving factors of gold still provide support, and gold and silver may show a volatile trend under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][20]. - SC crude oil fell 0.87% at night. The situation after the multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue is under concern, and the subsequent OPEC production increase situation needs attention [4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chief Comment - On August 19, the Ministry of Finance data showed that the growth rate of the national general public budget revenue in July reached a new high this year, and the cumulative growth rate turned from negative to positive. Five departments such as the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced new pension withdrawal situations and optimized channels. The securities transaction stamp duty in July was 15.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year surge of 125%. The A - share total market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time. The central bank added 100 billion yuan of re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [1]. 2. Key Varieties 2.1 Index Futures - US three major indices mainly declined. The domestic market turnover was 2.64 trillion yuan on the previous trading day. The margin trading balance increased by 39.506 billion yuan on August 18. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. 2.2 Precious Metals - Unexpected US inflation data last week pressured gold and silver. US 7 - month PPI and CPI data had different impacts on the market. Geopolitical risks declined, and the long - term driving factors of gold still support it. Gold and silver may fluctuate under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][20]. 2.3 Crude Oil - SC crude oil fell 0.87% at night. The multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue was held, and India's state - owned refiner continued to buy Russian crude oil. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 15, 2025. Follow - up attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][5][14]. 3. Main News Concerns of the Day 3.1 International News - The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate to protect domestic manufacturing and curb import dependence [6]. 3.2 Domestic News - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 2.0273 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative increase in the first 7 months turned positive. The expenditure was 1.60737 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed to standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry, strengthen industrial regulation, and curb low - price disorderly competition [8]. 4. Daily Earnings of External Markets - The report provides the daily earnings of various external market varieties on August 18 and 19, 2025, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, etc., showing the price changes and percentage changes of each variety [10]. 5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties 5.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom." The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are defensive [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's net investment increased, and the US interest rate cut expectation in September decreased. The bond market may be under pressure, and the cross - variety spread may widen [12][13]. 5.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Pay attention to the situation after the multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue and OPEC's production increase [4][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.5% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may fluctuate and decline in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are weak. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to late August [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures fell. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory has rebounded. Pay attention to the inventory digestion speed [18][19]. 5.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are under pressure from US inflation data. Geopolitical risks decline, and they may fluctuate under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][20]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee is low, and the downstream demand is mixed. The copper price may fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee is rising, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Jiangte Motor plans to resume lithium mine production. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also growing. The lithium price may have callback risks and potential upward space [23][24]. 5.4 Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the global shipment may increase rapidly in the second half of the year. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. The export is still strong, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures are weak. The inventory of coking coal has increased, and the market is in a wide - range shock [27]. 5.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures are weak. The USDA report shows a decrease in US soybean production and inventory, and the domestic market is supported by import costs [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures are weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have changed, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to be weak, while the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell. The domestic cotton supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The Zhengzhou cotton futures may be weak and volatile [32]. 5.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is volatile. The freight rate has decreased, and it is expected to slow down in early September. The market is likely to continue to fluctuate [33].