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DDR4退场,国产CPU面临小考
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-14 00:03
Core Viewpoint - The DDR4 memory prices have surged dramatically since early May, with a notable increase of over 160% for popular models, leading to a rare price inversion where DDR4 is more expensive than DDR5 [1][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of DDR4 16Gb 3200MHz rose from $2.4 to $6.4 between May 6 and the current week [1]. - Major manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have announced plans to phase out DDR4 production, causing market turbulence [4]. - The supply-demand mismatch has driven DDR4 prices to unprecedented levels, with expectations of continued high prices in the short term [11][17]. Group 2: Technological Transition - DDR4, which began its lifecycle in 2014, is now entering a phase of gradual discontinuation, with a production cycle of approximately 11 years [7]. - DDR5 offers significant improvements over DDR4, including higher frequencies starting from 4800MHz and greater bandwidth, making it more suitable for high-performance applications [8]. - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 is being accelerated by the increasing adoption of DDR5-compatible CPUs from major companies like Intel and AMD [13]. Group 3: Domestic CPU Challenges - Many domestic CPUs still support only DDR4, which may lead to challenges as DDR4 prices rise and availability decreases [10][15]. - The limited number of domestic CPUs that support DDR5 could hinder the transition to newer memory technologies, posing risks for domestic manufacturers [12][15]. - Companies are urged to expedite the development and production of DDR5-compatible products to remain competitive in the market [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The DDR4 price surge is expected to last for several months, driven by strong demand and limited supply, with some manufacturers reporting order increases of 1.5 to 2 times [16]. - As DDR5 production ramps up and prices stabilize, DDR4 prices are anticipated to return to more rational levels in the long term [17]. - The ongoing price fluctuations in both DDR4 and DDR5 highlight the need for domestic CPU manufacturers to enhance their supply chain management and technological capabilities [21].