Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to analyze the impact of external environment changes on corporate profitability, particularly in the industrial sector, and the necessary policy responses to stabilize profits [2][3]. Group 1: External Demand Exposure - The estimated external demand exposure for industrial revenue is approximately 16.2% [5][20]. - The calculation of external demand exposure is defined as the total export value of industrial enterprises divided by total revenue, with 2024 total exports projected at 25.5 trillion and industrial revenue at 156 trillion [5][20]. Group 2: Export Profit Elasticity - Two pathways are used to estimate the elasticity of industrial profits to export changes: one focusing on revenue and profit margins, and the other on total output [6][8]. - The elasticity of industrial profits to exports is estimated to be between 0.41% and 0.43%, meaning a 1% change in exports could lead to a 0.41% to 0.43% change in industrial profits [21][23]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Elasticity - The elasticity of industrial profits to final consumption is estimated at 0.54%, while to capital formation it is 0.70%, indicating that changes in domestic demand have a significant impact on industrial profits [31][32]. - A 1% increase in final consumption is estimated to increase industrial profits by approximately 0.05 trillion, while a similar increase in capital formation could raise profits by about 0.06 trillion [32]. Group 4: Policy Response Requirements - To stabilize industrial profits, a 1% decline in exports may require a 0.76% increase in final consumption growth or a 0.59% increase in capital formation growth [35][36]. - The required policy response is greater for consumption than for investment, reflecting the broader impact of consumption across various sectors [36]. Group 5: Industry-Level Insights - Industries with high export elasticity include textiles and metal smelting, while those with high elasticity to final consumption include food and tobacco, and paper and education [45][49]. - Industries that could benefit from increased investment include non-metallic products and metal smelting, which have high elasticity to capital formation [49].

2025年6月13日收盘，物流行业年初以来涨幅为6.2%，相对于沪深300超额收益为8.0%。物流行业由外 需转向内需，逐步积累超额收益。2025年以来，直营制快递股价表现相对优于加盟制快递，主要系直营 制快递受行业价格竞争影响相对较小。短期内龙头对份额提升具有较强诉求，行业价格竞争强度或大于 2024年同期，但基于有效监管的软约束下该行认为整体竞争强度预计可控。 海运行业：关税谈判节奏导致行业收益波动 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，关注交运行业内需弹性与高股息两条主线。物流板块， 建议关注有望内需顺周期的直营制快递龙头顺丰控股(06936，002352.SZ)和京东物流(02618)。海运行 业，短期建议关注集运板块，中期建议关注油运板块。基建板块，建议关注盈利相对稳健的高股息标的 皖通高速(600012.SH)、粤高速A(000429.SZ)，以及广泛布局全球优质港口资产、PB估值具备修复空间 的招商港口(001872.SZ)。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 物流行业：关注内需叙事的落地情况 基础设施：内需驱动下基本面有望迎来改善 截至2025年6月13日收盘，高速公路板块、铁路板块与港口板块 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 工业盈利：外需敞口与弹性分析 ❖ 核心观点 4 月以来，外部环境出现急剧变化。4 月政治局会议强调，"着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期"。此处，稳企业的内涵，我们理解或包括稳定企业盈利。 因而，有必要进一步研究外部环境变化对企业盈利的影响幅度以及需要的政策 对冲力度。简言之，工业企业（与出口相关）的外需敞口，内外需盈利弹性。 我们的估算表明，工业部门营收端的外需敞口或在 16.2%左右。从两个路径分 析出口变动对企业盈利影响，路径一为影响工业企业营收与利润率。路径二为 影响全社会总产出进而影响工业企业盈利。1 个百分点的出口变动，工业盈利 增速或变化 0.41%至 0.43%。 内需弹性方面，类似的分析估算表明，最终消费增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈 利增速或变化 0.54%。资本形成增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈利增速或变化 0.7%。换言之，1 个百分点的出口变动，需要的对冲力度可能是 0.76%的最终 消费的增速变化或 0.59%的资本形成的增速变化。从 4 月政治局会议来看，最 终消费的政策加码方向为"大力发展服务消费，尽快清理消费领域限制性措施， 设立服务消 ...