1） 成本方面，公司通过推动精益管理降本以对冲煤价下行，自产商品煤单位销售成本为262.97 元/ 吨，同减10.2%（对应29.91 元/吨的降本），其中主要拉动因素为安全费和维简费使用减少专项基金结 余拉动成本降低25.31 元/吨，较去年同期降低52.1%。兑现到利润端，虽然25H1煤市下行导致公司自产 煤销售价格同比-19.5%至470 元/吨，但是在降本增效对冲下毛利率仅下滑1.8pct 至23.7%，体现出优秀 的盈利韧性。 公司公布上半年业绩：营业收入744.36 亿元，同比去年-19.95%；归母净利润77.05 亿元，同比去 年-21.28%，上半年业绩整体符合我们预期（我们预测1H25 归母净利润77.32 亿元）。公司积极回馈股 东，继提升2024 年度分红比例后实施 2025 年中期分红（分红率28.57%，每股股利0.17 元），近年分红 水平逐渐贴近煤炭板块第一梯队，作为煤炭央企在市值管理导向下具备高股息潜力，叠加下半年美联储 潜在降息或进一步催化红利价值。维持"买入"评级。 1H25 平稳落地，煤炭主业产销符合预期 煤炭业务方面，2025 上半年公司商品煤产量达到6,734 万吨 ...

2025 年二季度末，保险行业资金运用余额达 36.23 万亿元，同比增长 8.9%。债券配置比例升至 51.1%，股票占比 8.8%，股票、基金和长 股投合计占比达 21.4%，较上年末提升 1 个百分点，权益规模增加约 9,000 亿元。 寿险公司增配长期政府债需求强烈，利率债占比达 70%；财险公司倾向 于金融债、企业债。二级权益配置比例普遍提升，另类资产配置比例下 降。主要保险公司债券投资占比普遍超 50%，股票加基金占比在 10%- 18%之间。 截至 2025 年二季度，59 家人身险公司投资收益率均为正，32 家未年 化数据达 2%以上。高股息风格在保险板块增配趋势明显，银行、公用 事业、通信及交通运输行业占比较高。 2025 年以来，共有 30 次举牌行为，涉及 14 家保险公司与 45 家公司， 被举牌企业多集中于银行、公用事业、交运等高股息行业，多为质地优 良、业绩良好的 H 股上市公司。 保险行业：低利率下保险资金入市必要性提升，高股息仍 是重要配置方向 20250821 摘要 Q&A 保险资金入市的必要性和未来空间如何？ 保险资金入市的必要性在当前低利率环境下显得尤为重要。现代利率整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of bank and insurance stocks in 2023 is attributed to high dividend yields, stable returns, and low valuations, with expectations for continued strength due to market recovery and increased capital inflows [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of August 20, 2023, the bank sector in A-shares has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 14% since 2025, while the insurance sector has risen about 13% [1]. - Individual stocks such as Agricultural Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Qingdao Bank have each increased over 30% this year, with New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance rising over 15% [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, banks like Qingdao Bank, CITIC Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank have also shown strong performance, with some H-shares increasing over 30%, and New China Life Insurance H-shares rising over 120% [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The rise in bank and insurance stocks is driven by a combination of market recovery and their inherently low valuations, with high dividends and improved asset quality contributing to their appeal [2]. - Insurance capital inflows have been significant, with favorable policies encouraging long-term investments, leading to increased demand for bank stocks among insurance funds [2]. - The low interest rate environment and asset scarcity have made bank stocks attractive to insurance capital due to their high dividends and stable valuations [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the valuation of bank and insurance stocks remains attractive, with expectations for continued strong performance driven by increased capital from insurance companies [3]. - The potential for significant capital inflows is supported by regulatory guidance encouraging insurance companies to invest a portion of new premiums in A-shares starting in 2025 [3]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from improved market conditions, which may alleviate pressure from interest rate reductions and enhance long-term investment value [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6][17] Core Views - The company's revenue from supply chain trade, cross-border multimodal transport, and land port projects is projected to be 65.72%, 27.96%, and 5.64% respectively in 2024, with gross profit contributions of 42.41%, 41.63%, and 15.79% [1] - The company has faced pressure in its Mongolian coal business, with a 8.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports and a 39.6% drop in import prices, but there are signs of potential recovery due to policy changes [2] - The African cross-border logistics network is developing, with the acquisition of BHL expected to enhance operational efficiency and expand into broader international markets [3] - The company is considered undervalued with a projected PE of approximately 12 times for 2025, and an estimated dividend yield of around 5% for 2026 [4] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 6,995.26 million in 2023 to 11,533.70 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 44.85% in 2023 and a projected 12.61% in 2027 [10][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 1,038.79 million in 2023 to 1,204.52 million in 2025, before increasing to 1,753.88 million in 2027 [10][11] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to rise from 1,297.88 million in 2023 to 2,330.67 million in 2027, indicating a strong operational performance [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 6.11 [6][22]. Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations with its dividend commitment, offering a minimum dividend yield of 4.9% for 2025-2027, which combines high dividend value with growth potential from hydropower projects [4][6]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 77.655 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 9.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.687 billion, down 45.11% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of thermal power generation in 3Q25 due to high temperatures in East China during the peak summer season [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's thermal power generation was 151.84 billion kWh, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 4.507 billion for the same period [2]. - The company’s wind power net profit for 2Q25 was RMB 106 million, significantly impacted by a credit impairment loss of RMB 624 million [3]. - The company’s hydropower segment showed a net profit of RMB 859 million in 2Q25, a 20.8% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations [3]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend policy for 2025-2027, distributing at least 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum cash dividend per share of RMB 0.22 [4][6]. - The interim dividend for 1H25 was RMB 1.784 billion, corresponding to a dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 0.1, with a payout ratio of 48.4% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards by 7.3%, 7.6%, and 6.0% to RMB 7 billion, RMB 8.2 billion, and RMB 8.8 billion respectively [5]. - The target price of RMB 6.11 is based on a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15.0 for 2025, reflecting the company's valuation compared to peers in the renewable energy sector [5][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sai Lun Tire [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 22.06%) and sulfur (up 5.26%), while synthetic ammonia and butanone experienced substantial declines [4][20]. - The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities due to the impact of renewed U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions affecting international oil prices [6][20]. - The overall chemical industry remains in a weak position, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [23]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - Key products with notable price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, sulfur, and urea, while synthetic ammonia and butanone saw significant price drops [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets amid a challenging market environment [23][24]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The report notes fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $65.85 per barrel and WTI at $62.80 per barrel, reflecting a downward trend [6][20]. - The chemical product prices have shown some rebound, but many products still face price declines, indicating a mixed market sentiment [23][24]. Company Focus and Profit Forecasts - The report recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [8][23]. - It also highlights the potential of domestic fertilizer companies to meet local demand, with specific recommendations for companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yang Feng [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) [2] Core Views - The company reported stable performance with a proposed mid-term dividend, enhancing its high dividend advantage [5][7] - For the first half of 2025, Jiangsu Jinzu achieved operating revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.56 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to initiate mid-term dividends based on a payout ratio exceeding 50%, projecting a dividend yield of over 5% for 2025 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s operating revenue for 2025 is estimated at 5.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 3.18 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [6] - The report indicates a decrease in the net interest margin to 3.71% in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3 basis points [7] Asset Quality and Growth - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the net financing lease assets amounted to 144.11 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% from the beginning of the year [7] - The company’s non-performing financing lease asset ratio remained stable at 0.91%, with a coverage ratio of 401.5% [7] - The number of cooperative manufacturers increased to nearly 6,000, up from over 5,800 at the end of 2024 [7]

Group 1 - The core CPI in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing a previous decline, while the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking the third consecutive month of growth [2][11][12] - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the month-on-month decline compared to previous months [2][15][16] - The introduction of two consumer loan interest subsidy policies aims to stimulate domestic consumption by targeting both demand and supply sides [3][35][37] Group 2 - The domestic securities market showed a mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the highest increase of 8.6% [4][39] - The communication sector led the industry gains with a rise of 7.7%, reflecting strong market interest in technology and innovation [4][41] - The overall GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.39%, indicating resilience in the domestic economy [4] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on new productive forces, emphasizing sectors such as artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics, which are expected to yield excess returns [5][47] - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumer spending, particularly in new consumption areas, home appliances, and automobiles [5][47] - The report highlights the potential for stable returns from high-dividend assets and suggests a long-term investment opportunity in gold due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5][47]

专题：贵州茅台2025年半年报发布 营业收入增速同比下降近50%，净利润则下降了40%以上，归为白酒龙头老大，贵州茅台今年上半年的业绩，虽然依旧实现了稳定增长，但同过去相比，增 速已然出现乏力迹象。 8月12日晚间披露的半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台的营业总收入、净利润，同比只分别增长了9.16%、8.89%，与去年同期17.7%、15.8%以上的增速相 比，今年上半年已经出现了显著下滑；营业成本则较上年同期增长了15%以上，毛利率则同比小幅下降。 股息率已经超过部分银行股。 对于上述情况，该公司解释称，这主要是销量增加及生产成本增加所致。而2025年主要目标，是实现营业总收入在上年的基础上增长9%左右，完成固定资 产投资47.11亿元。展望未来，虽面临不少难题，但有利因素强于不利因素，总体发展态势依然向好。 业内人士认为，茅台酒的消费需求下降，"囤酒"的金融属性也在下降，这可能会导致该公司未来的业绩增速进一步放缓。而贵州茅台也将从高成长属性，逐 步变成高股息属性，随着其他高股息个股上升，贵州茅台能否获得价值投资者青睐，需要继续观察。 上半年营收增速接近"腰斩" 半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台实现营业总收 ...

四川成渝 20250813 摘要 四川成渝公路业务稳健，通车里程约 900 公里，超 50%路产剩余收费 年限超 10 年，为未来现金流提供保障。公司通过收购和新建拓展省内 公路网络，并受益于与蜀道集团的资源整合，如二绕西高速注入。 公司财务费用率通过低利率债务置换得到有效控制，管理费用和销售费 用有望随收入规模增长而降低。优化债务结构叠加宏观利率下行，预计 将释放更多盈利弹性。 高速公路业务贡献主要收入（约 60%），其余来自多元化业务。2023 年以来利润逐步恢复，通行费为主要毛利润来源。优化债务结构降低财 务费用是提升盈利能力的关键。 公司承诺 2023-2025 年分红比例不低于归母净利润的 60%，分红水平 不断提升，增强了对高股息回报投资者的吸引力。2023 和 2024 年通 行费收入基本持平，车流量略有增长，毛利率持续上升。 公司拥有陈雅、陈仁、成渝和二绕西等成熟公路项目，提供稳定收益。 成乐高速改扩建预计年底完工，天琼高速即将收费，有望带来增量。多 元化业务方面，能源销售、商品销售和服务区经营保持稳健，多式联运 经营逐步修复。 Q&A 公司未来的发展前景如何？ 四川成渝公司在高股息方面有哪些 ...