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金银价格比率的主要驱动因素
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-23 22:47
Core Insights - Gold prices have recently reached record highs, surpassing $3500 per ounce before retreating to $3350, while silver prices peaked above $37 per ounce, remaining below historical highs from 1980 and 2011 [1] - The relative value of gold and silver continues to fluctuate due to supply growth, central bank purchases, technological advancements, and the economic growth in China [1] Price Correlation - Historically, gold and silver prices have shown a high correlation, with a one-year rolling correlation coefficient ranging from 0.68 to 0.95, but this correlation has recently dropped to its lowest level in over 20 years [3] - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to purchase one ounce of gold, has fluctuated significantly, recently exceeding 100 for the first time since 2020 before falling back to 90 in June [4] Supply Dynamics - Gold production has been approximately 97 million ounces, while silver production is around 800 million ounces, with both metals' production peaking around 2015 and stabilizing since then [7] - Central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2008, which has reduced the available gold supply in the market, contrasting with silver, whose supply has increased by over 35% since 2005 [7][9] Demand Factors - Gold has limited industrial applications, primarily being used in jewelry and investment, while silver has a wide range of industrial uses, including in batteries and solar panels [10][11] - The demand for silver is significantly influenced by global industrial demand, particularly in the context of its growing applications in technology [12]