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豆粕:隔夜美豆收涨,连粕或反弹震荡,豆一:震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound and fluctuate; the soybean futures are expected to be volatile [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4105 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.51%, and 4110 yuan/ton during the night session, up 21 yuan; DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2741 yuan/ton during the day session, up 6 yuan (+0.22%), and 2738 yuan/ton during the night session, down 2 yuan (-0.07%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1064 cents/bushel, up 4.5 cents (+0.42%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 301.7 dollars/short ton, up 0.4 dollars (+0.13%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) in different regions had different changes compared with the previous day, with the range from -10 to +30 yuan/ton; the spot basis was M2605 + 360, down 10 yuan compared with the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.03 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.48 million tons two trading days ago; the inventory was 100.92 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 22, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to China's soybean purchases, rising crude oil prices, and a weaker US dollar. Although the Brazilian soybean production is expected to be bumper this year and traders are still skeptical about China's purchase speed under the Sino - US bilateral trade truce agreement, the year - end bulk purchases in the agricultural product market supported the soybean futures. The US Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters sold 39.6 million tons of soybeans to China, with 33 million tons to be delivered this year and the rest in 2026/27 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts of the day session on the reporting day [3].