国内商品期市夜盘收盘涨跌参半，化工品涨幅居前，PTA涨2.28%；黑色系全部上涨，焦煤涨2.10%；能 源品多数上涨，低硫燃料油涨1.33%；非金属建材跌幅居前，PVC跌1.87%；农副产品多数下跌，棉花 跌1.66%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆一跌0.87%。 ...

热点追踪 （2026年1月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪锡 沪深300期货 短纤 不锈钢豆油红枣 菜粕 纤维板 豆二 10豆一粳米年期国债期货鸡蛋玉米 棕榈油 上证沪金50期货苯乙烯 低硫燃料油 橡胶 铁矿石 PVC豆粕 PTA 尿素2玉米淀粉 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 白糖乙二醇菜油沥青 20号胶 沪锌 生猪5年期国债期货 聚丙烯 硅铁焦炭 纯碱 郑棉棉纱热轧卷板 沪铅沪银 烧碱玻璃 30对二甲苯 年期国债期货 LPG 塑料 原油 螺纹钢 锰硅 沪铜国际铜 丁二烯橡胶 集运指数(欧线) 氧化铝 工业硅 纸浆 甲醇 花生 焦煤 沪镍 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 每日成交量变化 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪深300期货 沪锡 红枣 豆油 短纤 不锈钢 棕榈油 上证50期货 纤维板 苯乙烯 沪金 豆一 低硫燃料油 菜粕 10年期国债期货 ...

期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周四，豆油主力05合约午后收于7944（日变动-14或-0.18 %）。印尼计划在2026年继续正值400-500万公顷棕榈油种植园， 叠加印尼B50测试以及市场担忧印尼可能上调出口关税等影响下， 棕榈油期价近期走强，带动豆油坚挺运行。目前豆油自身基本面并 不理想，我国豆油目前供应虽有收紧，但整体供应依旧宽松，关注 大豆供应及节前备货情况。供应充足，豆油续涨驱动预计不足，多 单考虑离场观望。豆油主力05合约支撑位关注7600-7650元/吨， 压力位关注8030-8050元/吨； 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月08日星期四 农产品团队 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-6 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 豆粕：震荡，等待下周 USDA 报告 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | +41 4387 | （+0.94%） -9 （-0.21%） 4369 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2782 -9 | （-0.32%） 2779 -25（-0.89%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1061.25 | -4.75（-0.45%） | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | -1.9 303.4 | n a （-0.62%） | | | | 3105～3200， 较昨+30至+40； | 豆粕 （43%） 1月M2605+350/+380， 持平； 2月M2605+370， 持 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | | M2605+260/+300/+310/+3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the soybean meal and soybean industries. Instead, it suggests a "wait - and - see" approach due to market sentiment [1] Core View - Due to market sentiment, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean markets. The price movements of related futures and spot markets are influenced by factors such as China's soybean purchases and the expected decline in Brazil's soybean exports to China [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4404 yuan/ton during the day session, up 140 yuan (+3.28%), and 4388 yuan at night, up 42 yuan (+0.97%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2811 yuan/ton during the day, up 48 yuan (+1.74%), and 2807 yuan at night, up 16 yuan (+0.57%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1066 cents/bushel, up 9.5 cents (+0.90%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 305.3 dollars/short - ton, up 6.2 dollars (+2.07%) [1] - **Spot Data**: In Shandong, the spot price range is 3100 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day; in different regions and time periods, the spot prices are related to different contract premiums. For example, in January, it is M2605 + 350/+380. In East China, the price range is 3090 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 25 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Industrial Data**: The daily trading volume of soybean meal (43%) is 16.35 million tons, and the weekly inventory is 105.05 million tons, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 7, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the US Department of Agriculture confirmed that China continued to purchase US soybeans. Private exporters reported selling 33.6 million tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season. It is estimated that China has purchased more than 1000 million tons of US soybeans. However, once China's purchase volume reaches 1200 million tons, the demand for US soybeans may slow down. The head of the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) said that the US soybean sales to China will suppress Brazil's soybean demand this year, and ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports to China will drop to 7700 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 1000 million tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral situation in the main contract price fluctuations of the day session on the reporting day [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 农产品组 相关品种：豆一 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 昨日豆一价格大幅上涨，主力合约2605收盘价格4404元/吨，上涨140元/吨，涨幅3.28%。 上涨主要原因：首先，现货方面，东北产区基层农户惜售情绪仍浓、要价较高，高蛋白大豆货源短缺。 叠加春节备货逐步启动，企业补库积极性增强。供需矛盾逐步凸现。其次，近期拍卖成交率高且溢价明 显。据博朗咨询数据，九三集团大豆交易中心国产大豆竞价销售：1月6日14：00竞价销售2022年产大豆 4193吨，全部成交，底价4050元/吨，成交均价4089元/吨，溢价30-70元/吨。融通粮食产业发展有限公 司黑龙江大豆毛粮竞价销售：1月7日10：00竞价销售2025年产大豆4983.6吨，全部成交，底价 4020/4050/4120元/吨，成交均价4396元/吨，溢价240-390元/吨。蛋白38.3%-40.7%。最后，近几日黑龙 江及内蒙古产区大部降雪天气，将在一定程度上影响现货装运，加剧短期供需矛盾。 整体来看，豆一短期供需矛盾凸显，市场挺 ...

| VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | なな女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | 菜粕 | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 宏观流动性偏好的背景下,大宗商品贵金属有色金属等品种表现更为强势,后续关注对农产品的影响力度。国 产大豆近期基本面偏强的背景下,也受到宏观的提振,近期的大豆竞价拍卖表现出来了高溢价和高成交率。国 产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调， ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | | | | | | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4276 | +17（+0.40%） 4280 | | | | | +16（+0.38%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2776 | +30（+1.09%） 2789 | | | | | +26（+0.94%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1056.5 | -5.75（-0.54%） | | | | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 299.1 | n a -0.6（-0.20%） | | | | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | | | | 较昨持平至+40； 3070～3160， ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注宏观情绪影响 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持强势20260107 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：仍存累库行为 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注宏观情绪影响 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.14% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.47% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 ...