2025年11月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 2025 年 11 月 27 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：移仓换月，或仍以震荡为主 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：关注新糖报价 | 7 | | 棉花：关注现货基差走势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：去库节点来临，近端压力扩大 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,440 | 0.96% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Weak Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [3] - SSE 50: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weak Oscillation [6] - Offset Paper: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Soybean Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean No.2: Weak Oscillation [8] - Soybean No.1: Weak Oscillation [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with a Slight Uptrend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the steel mill profit is squeezed again, but the short - term negative feedback probability is low, with the price oscillating strongly at a high level [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply concerns, and the price is in a weak adjustment state in the short term [2] - The downstream demand for rolled steel and rebar is weak, and the price is in a bottom - oscillating state, depending on production reduction policies and macro policies [2] - The glass demand is weak, and the price is weak, with the need to focus on production line cold repair and policies [2][3] - The stock index futures/options market has short - term adjustments, and the medium - term trend is still optimistic [3] - The gold price is supported in the long term by the Fed's interest - rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, with short - term fluctuations [4] - The log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to supply pressure and weak demand [4][6] - The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost support weakening and poor demand [6] - The oil price is expected to operate in a range, and the meal price is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by supply, demand, and policies [6][8] - The live pig price is expected to oscillate, with short - term downward pressure on the settlement price and upward support for the slaughter rate [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely due to supply and demand factors [10] - The polyester products' prices are affected by supply, demand, and raw material prices, showing different trends such as oscillation and weak adjustment [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 million tons to 2939.5 million tons, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 million tons. The demand core is in the real estate, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by import news and supply concerns, the futures price dropped sharply. The fourth round of price increases by coke enterprises has been implemented, but the profit repair is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth - round increase [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The downstream demand is weak, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The steel price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2] - **Glass**: The spot price is weak, and the demand is dragged down by the real - estate竣工. The inventory is increasing, and the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the surplus problem [2][3] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose 0.95%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.25%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 1.31%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows, and geopolitical news affected the market [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan. The bond market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In a high - interest - rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the gold pricing mechanism is changing. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term factors, and long - term support comes from multiple aspects [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, inflation, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, the inventory increased, and the spot price was weak. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase [4][6] - **Pulp**: The spot price was divided, the cost support weakened, the paper - mill demand was poor, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils**: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, the palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the domestic oil supply was abundant while the demand was weak. The price was expected to operate in a range [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted, the global soybean supply was relatively loose, and the domestic meal supply was abundant. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight fluctuated, the settlement price decreased by 2.58%, the demand recovered slightly, and the slaughter rate increased. The price was expected to oscillate with short - term downward pressure [8] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in different regions changed, the output in some areas was affected by the weather, the demand was supported by the auto industry, and the inventory was accumulating. The price was expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical easing led to oil - price decline, and the supply was strong while the demand was boosted by the polyester load rebound, with wide - range oscillation [10] - **PTA**: The cost was affected by oil prices, the short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was poor, and the price followed the cost [10] - **MEG**: There was long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term price was weak with upward pressure [10] - **PR**: The raw - material support was weak, and the market was expected to adjust weakly [10] - **PF**: The current supply - demand was okay, but the future expectation was negative, and the price was expected to adjust weakly [10]

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4108 -31 | （-0.75%） 4107 | | -10（-0.24%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3013 | +8（+0.27%） 3020 | | +11 （+0.37%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1124 | +2.75（+0.25%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 320.5 | +2.6（+0.82%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3020～3100， M2601+20/+30/+60， 持平； M2601+30， 持平； M2605+50/+80， 持平； | 较昨持平或+20； 现货基差M2601+40， 12-3月M2601+20/+30/+60， 2-4 ...

数据来源：WIND、五矿期货期权服务部 农产品期权 2025-11-26 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花弱势盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约陷入震荡调整。现货价格小幅上涨，富锦大豆市场价由4040元/吨涨至4060元/吨附近。豆一基差震荡， 盘面升水维持。 豆粕01合约震荡调整。豆粕现货价格小跌，张家港43粕由3000元/吨跌至2980元/吨附近。基差震荡，盘面维持小幅 升水。 豆粕或延续震荡走势 2025年11月25日 （1）国产大豆减产，继续去库。据农业农村部11月报告，华北等天气不佳致单产下降，国产大豆总产量微下调19 万吨至2090万吨，仍高于去年。国内大豆开始去库。据钢联：截至11月21日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至79%；安徽大豆 余粮占比落至78%；河南大豆余粮占比落至80%；山东大豆余粮占比落至86%。黑龙江地区大豆库存低于近年同期，销售 较快。 （2）国内大豆进口回落，港口大豆库存回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月21日，油厂大豆到港量为204.7 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 昆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆波动反复，反弹之后再度回调。目前现货市场报价稳定，市场参与者挺价意愿偏强。政策端上周仍然在进行拍卖,不 过市场预计短期拍卖量尚未对供应端带来冲击。今年国产高蛋白太豆供应趋紧，因此市场对高蛋白大豆给予乐观的预期，给整 体大豆市场带来偏强的预期。美豆方面11月份显现出中国在采购美国大豆，预计中国 ...

2025年11月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约 | 8 | | 花生：关注现货 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） 8,486 | 涨跌幅 -0.75% | 收盘价（夜盘） 8,454 | 涨跌幅 -0.38% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,168 | -0.27% | 8,174 | 0.07% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,778 | -0.39% | 9,788 | 0.10% | | 期货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,055 | -0 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 吴光静 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价(日盘) | 涨跌 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE = 2601 ( = / 中) 4109 -1 (-0.02%) | | 4101 | -6 (-0. 15%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601(元/吨) 3012 -1 (-0.03%) | | 2996 | -21 (-0. 70%) | | | CBOT大豆01(美分/蒲) 1126. 5 +4 (+0. 36%) | | | | | | CBOT豆粕01(美元/短吨) 319. 8 +2.2 (+0.69%) | | | na | | | 豆粕(43%) | | | | | | 2990~3080. 较昨=10至持平:现货基差M2601+40. 较昨持平:12月 M2601+30/+60,持平:12-3月M2601+20/+50,持平;2026年1-3月M2601+30;2-4 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [4] - Logs: Bottom volatile [6] - Pulp: Weakly volatile [6] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and weakening [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and weakening [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strengthening [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Volatile [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Wide-range volatile [10] - PR: On hold [10] - PF: On hold [10] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are in a volatile state, some are showing signs of rebound or upward movement, while others are weakening or range-bound. The performance of each sector is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policy, and geopolitical situation [2][4][6][7][10] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals Industry - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased significantly, but domestic port arrivals continued to decline. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with weak domestic demand. The supply-demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by import target news and supply concerns, the futures prices dropped significantly. The profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth price increase. The supply-demand situation is expected to become loose again, and the short-term adjustment trend will continue [2] - Rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price will remain in a volatile state, and it depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The spot price is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The inventory is increasing, and the price will be in a low-level consolidation state [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short term, but the medium-term trend is still upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds remained flat, and the market showed a slight rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The central bank's gold purchase behavior is the key, and factors such as high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and currency credit issues support the long-term price of gold [4] Light Industry Sector - Logs: The port inventory is increasing, and the demand is in the off-season with limited growth prospects. The spot price is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - Pulp: The spot price is differentiated, and the cost support for pulp prices is weakening. The demand from the paper industry is not strong, and the pulp price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] - Offset paper: The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] Oil and Fat Sector - Oils: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are higher than expected, and the export is weak. The domestic supply of oils is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to range-bound [6] - Meals: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is affected by factors such as the uncertainty of biodiesel policies and the weather in Brazil. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] Agricultural Products Sector - Live pigs: The trading weight of live pigs fluctuates, and the demand has recovered to some extent. The slaughter rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the price is expected to remain volatile [7] Soft Commodities Sector - Rubber: The supply in some regions is affected by weather conditions, and the demand from the tire industry has recovered. The inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10] - PX: The supply is strong, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is favorable. The price will mainly fluctuate [10] - PTA: The cost end is loosened, and the short-term supply-demand situation has improved, but the seasonal weakening is inevitable. The price will follow the cost end to fluctuate [10] - MEG: The long-term inventory accumulation pressure still exists, and the short-term supply has decreased. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10] - PR: Affected by factors such as falling oil prices and new device production, the market continues to decline [10] - PF: The demand is average, and the supply of raw materials is loose. The market is likely to be weakly volatile [10]