2025 年 10 月 12 日 車 度 千 国庆前后(09.29-10.10),美豆期价涨跌互现,期价上涨主要因为中美谈判希望(10月1日美国总 统特朗普表示,他将在四周后与中国国家主席习近平会面,大豆贸易将成为核心议题)和美国政策支持 (10 月 2 日美国财长贝森特表示,美国政府将为美国农民、特别是大豆种植者推出支持性政策);期价下 跌主要因为中美贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温（10月10日特朗普表示,没有理由按计划在两周后在韩国与中国 领导人会面;随后,特朗普宣布将从11月1日起对中国商品加征额外100%进口关税)。从周Ｋ线角度, 10月 3日当周,美豆主力 11月合约周涨幅 8.3%; 10月 10 日当周兴 美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 0.98%。 国庆前后 (09.29-09.30、10.09-10.10),国内豆粕期价偏弱,豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面,主要交 易中美缓和、中加缓和。豆一方面,盘面偏强主要因为国内政策支持预期、国庆期间美豆价格上涨带动。 东北产区新豆现货价格稳中偏弱。从周 K 线角度，18 月 10 日当周（节后两个交易日），豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 0.2%,豆一主力 a2511 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...

豆粕/豆一基本面数据 品 研 2025 年 10月 10 日 右安期赏研 | | 豆粕: al | | --- | --- | | 吴光静 | 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | 收盘价(日盘) 涨跌 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511(元/吨) 3975 +46 (+1. 17%) | 3960 | +0 (+0. 00%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601(元/吨) 2939 SU +6 (+0. 20%) | 2929 | -5 (-0. 17%) | | | CBOT大豆11(美分/蒲) 1021. 75 -8.0 (-0.78%) | | | | | na CBOT豆粕12(美元/短吨) 276.6 -1.5 (-0.54%) | | | | | 豆粕(43%) | | | | | 2950~2980. 较节前+10或持平:现货基差M2601+20/+40/+50. 持平:11月 山东(元/吨) M2601+30,持平:11-1月M2601+40 ...

表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2511 | 3,960 | 0 | 0.00 | 10.55 | 1.73 | 13.76 | 0.10 | | 豆二 | B2511 | 3,637 | 4 | 0.11 | 10.21 | 2.57 | 8.70 | -0.15 | | 豆粕 | M2511 | 2,903 | -6 | -0.21 | 9.03 | 2.94 | 35.21 | -4.75 | | 菜籽粕 | RM2601 | 2,418 | -11 | -0.45 | 20.63 | -1.13 | 35.62 | 0.33 | | 棕榈油 | P2511 | 9,436 | 20 | 0.21 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 1.35 | -0.21 | | 豆油 | Y2511 | 8,370 | 8 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-10） | | | | 铁矿：节后铁矿有所反弹，更多是供应端消息层面支撑。部分自媒体报道 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 称因铁矿石定价争议升级，对禁止进口 BHP 等矿山矿石的消息产生新的 | | | | | 担忧，但中国钢厂并没有收到相关通知，另外西芒杜事故也影响了市场情 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 绪，后续关注供应端的实际影响情况。近期钢厂盈利面走低，但依旧处于 | | | | | 近年偏高水平，日均铁水产量也维持 241-242 万吨左右，短期很难看到 | | | | | 负反馈，节后核心仍在钢材需求，若十月钢材需求不及预期，从而钢材库 | | | | | 存持续累积，钢价下跌带动利润走低，导致钢厂减产进而形成负反馈。目 | | | | | 前铁矿石交易逻辑不确定性增加，短期供应端干扰下仍有支撑。 | | | | | 煤焦：10 月国内焦煤供给预计将维持平稳运行态势。受前期"反内卷" | | | 煤焦 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/24 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 2025/09/25 20 ...

2025 年 10 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3927 | -4（-0.10%） | na na | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2928 | -9 （-0.31%） | na na | | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1029.75 | +8.75（+0.86%） | 注：连盘指9月30日收盘， 夜盘休市； | 美盘 | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 278.1 | +1.4（+0.51%） | 收盘指10月8日收盘价。 | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） （节前9月30日报价） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2940～2980； M2601+40/+50/+80， | 10月基差M2601+0/+50， 持平； 持平； 12-1月M2601+50， 持平； 5-7月M2605+10， | 持平； 11-1月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: B50 road test is advanced, maintain low - long and range - bound operations [2][4] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebounded during the holiday, and soybean oil followed the upward opening of oils and fats [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybean prices rose during the holiday, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound after the holiday [2][11] - Soybean: Pay attention to the soybean market atmosphere, may rebound and fluctuate [2][11] - Corn: Fluctuate weakly [2][14] - Sugar: Fluctuate strongly [2][17] - Eggs: Spot prices continue to decline [2][21] - Pigs: Spot price decline increased during the holiday, it's a basis - narrowing market [2][23] - Peanuts: Fluctuate weakly [2][26] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Malaysian palm oil main contract closed at 4,546 ringgit/ton (up 1.65% during the day, 4,560 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.33%); CBOT soybean oil main contract closed at 51.29 cents/pound (up 0.49%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 168 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 310 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year, which requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters [5][6] - SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month [7] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,927 yuan/ton (down 0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton (down 0.31%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1029.75 cents/bushel (up 0.86%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 278.1 dollars/short - ton (up 0.51%) [11] - Spot: Shandong soybean meal (43%) was 2,940 - 2,980 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - On October 8, CBOT soybean futures continued to rise due to possible downward adjustment of US soybean production and improved prospects of China - US trade negotiations [11][13] Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: C2511 closed at 2,143 yuan/ton (down 1.29%); C2601 closed at 2,130 yuan/ton (down 0.33%) [15] - Spot: Jinzhou平仓 price was 2,280 yuan/ton (unchanged); Guangdong Shekou price was 2,440 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - During the National Day holiday, Northeast corn prices declined, and North Port prices rose slightly on October 6; North China corn prices fluctuated with an overall downward trend [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Main contract price was 5,493 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) [17] - Spot: Mainstream spot price was 5,830 yuan/ton (unchanged) [17] - **Macro and Industry News** - Typhoon "Madam" affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and floods occurred in Guangxi; Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year [17] - Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [17] Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Egg 2510 closed at 2,909 yuan/500 kilograms (down 0.65%); Egg 2601 closed at 3,360 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.36%) [21] - Spot: Liaoning spot price was 3.40 yuan/jin (unchanged); Hebei spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin (down 0.11 yuan/jin) [21] Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Pig 2511 closed at 12,355 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton); Pig 2601 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) [23] - Spot: Henan spot price was 12,480 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: PK510 closed at 7,602 yuan/ton (down 2.54%); PK511 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) [26] - Spot: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton); Henan Baisha general peanuts were 8,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [26] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were slightly weaker than the previous day; in Shandong, prices were stable or slightly weak [27]

Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]