农产品期货趋势强度
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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20260120
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Palm oil: Short - term negatives are limited, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production cuts [2]. - Soybean oil: There is a lack of US soybean themes, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans were closed overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal followed the rapeseed meal to correct [2]. - Soybean: The spot is stable, and the market is adjusted and fluctuating [2]. - Corn: It has corrected [2]. - Sugar: It is in low - level consolidation [2]. - Cotton: Wait for the adjustment to end [2]. - Eggs: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [2]. - Hogs: The spot has weakened, and the peak - season expectations have decreased [2]. - Peanuts: They are moving in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - time closing price was 8,710 yuan/ton with a 0.72% change. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and night - time closing price was 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.13% change [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Reuters survey shows that the average price of palm oil in 2026 is expected to be 4,125 ringgit per ton, a 2.55% year - on - year decrease. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a 2.61% year - on - year decrease. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a 0.39% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensity are both 0 [9]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2605's daytime closing price was 4321 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change, night - time closing price was 4316 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change. DCE soybean meal 2605's daytime closing price was 2727 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, night - time closing price was 2715 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the Martin Luther King Day, the US market was closed on Monday, and there was no CBOT agricultural product daily review. As of January 15, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 2% [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensity are both 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2603's daytime closing price was 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change, night - time closing price was 2,271 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. C2605's daytime closing price was 2,272 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change, night - time closing price was 2,266 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port - collection price was 2280 - 2290 yuan/ton; the container first - grade grain port - collection price was 2330 - 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. The Guangdong Shekou bulk shipping quotation was 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decrease from yesterday [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound with a 0.39 change. The mainstream spot price was 5340 yuan/ton with a - 10 change. The futures main - contract price was 5244 yuan/ton with a - 14 change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 15, the 25/26 Indian sugar production increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons) [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2605's daytime closing price was 14,545 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, night - time closing price was 14465 yuan/ton with a - 0.55% change. CY2603's daytime closing price was 20,510 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change, night - time closing price was 20420 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was generally average, and the cotton yarn price was generally stable, but the market sentiment was weak [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 1 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2602's closing price was 2,998 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.93% change. Egg 2603's closing price was 3,023 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.34% change [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [30]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13430 yuan/ton. The Sichuan spot price was 12950 yuan/ton. The Guangdong spot price was 14060 yuan/ton. Hog 2603's price was 11705 yuan/ton, Hog 2605's price was 11945 yuan/ton, Hog 2607's price was 12605 yuan/ton [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 2 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. PK603's closing price was 7,890 yuan/ton with a 0.69% change. PK605's closing price was 7,842 yuan/ton with a 0.28% change [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was basically stable, and some large - peanut producing areas were slightly weaker. In Jilin and Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was basically stable, and the purchase volume increased slightly [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [38].