1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT May soybean contract fell 1 to close at 1159.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.09%; the May bean meal contract fell 92 to close at 2937 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.04%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China fell 120 to 3280 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.53%; the May rapeseed meal contract fell 108 to close at 2315 yuan per ton, a decline of 4.46%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 110 to 2330 yuan per ton, a decline of 4.51% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans fluctuated. Trump postponed his visit to China. U.S. soybean export sales generally met USDA targets. South American export supply increased, having an advantage in cost - effectiveness. It is difficult for China to significantly increase purchases of old - crop U.S. soybeans in the future. The U.S. biodiesel policy was implemented, basically in line with expectations, providing support for the crushing demand. The conflict in the Middle East continued, and as the North American planting season approached, the prices of production materials such as fertilizers and fuels increased, raising the planting cost. In China, the prices of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. China relaxed the weed inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans. The arrival of soybeans in China in April will increase, and the supply will become more abundant. The crushing operation rate of oil mills decreased slightly, the inventory reduction of soybean meal was slow, and the trading volume of soybean meal was light [4][7]. - The continuous spread of the war in the Middle East led to a strong oil price. The rising costs of production materials such as fertilizers and diesel increased the planting cost of agricultural products. The intention - area report will be released at the end of the month. The increase in production cost is more conducive to soybean planting. Attention should be paid to the expected difference after the report is released. The U.S. biodiesel policy was released, basically in line with expectations; the export sales progress met the target. With the relaxation of Brazilian soybean quarantine, the inventory reduction of soybean meal in domestic oil mills was slow, and the spot price declined. The arrival of soybeans in April will gradually increase, and the supply will become more abundant. Attention should be paid to the crushing operation rate and supply situation of oil mills. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate weakly in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | March 27 | March 20 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1159.50 | 1160.50 | - 1.00 | - 0.09% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 483.00 | 482.00 | 1.00 | 0.21% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 517.00 | 512.00 | 5.00 | 0.98% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | 29.28 | 109.69 | - 80.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2937.00 | 3029.00 | - 92.00 | - 3.04% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2315.00 | 2423.00 | - 108.00 | - 4.46% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 622.00 | 606.00 | 16.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3220.00 | 3330.00 | - 110.00 | - 3.30% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3280.00 | 3400.00 | - 120.00 | - 3.53% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 343.00 | 371.00 | - 28.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of March 19, 2026, the net increase in U.S. soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 669,000 tons, compared with 298,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the current season was 37.26 million tons, with a sales progress of 86.9%, compared with 89.7% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of U.S. soybeans in that week was 263,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 11.24 million tons and an unshipped volume of 2.73 million tons [8]. - The U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 85.549 million acres, higher than the 81.215 million acres planted last year and also exceeding the 85 million acres estimated by the USDA Outlook Forum [8][15]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the gross profit of U.S. soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was $3.80 per bushel, compared with $3.27 per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $332.17 per short - ton, compared with $325.63 per short - ton in the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 64.76 cents per pound, compared with 66.64 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $11.56 per bushel, compared with $12.16 per bushel in the previous week [9]. - According to the Conab agency, as of March 21, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week and 76.4% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 66.4%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 98.3%, compared with 96.4% last week and 98.8% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Paraná was 70%, compared with 60% last week and 81% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in South Mato Grosso was 87%, compared with 68% last week and 85% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters announced that the estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in March was 15.87 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 16.32 million tons [9]. - According to the report of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of the week of March 26, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crop conditions was 82%, compared with 78% in the previous week and 76% in the same period last year. The exchange estimated that the soybean output in the 2025/26 season would remain at 48.5 million tons [10]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.5977 million tons compared with the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 78,700 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 3.5201 million tons, a decrease of 369,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.783 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 5.131 million tons, a decrease of 358,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.5255 million tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of March 27, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 69,240 tons, including 49,240 tons of spot trading and 20,000 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the previous week was 190,000 tons; the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 169,800 tons, compared with 168,900 tons in the week before the holiday; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.8352 million tons, compared with 1.9905 million tons in the week before the holiday; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.35 days, compared with 8.82 days in the previous week [11]. Industry News - According to foreign media reports, agricultural consulting agency AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday, the harvest rate of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 68%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week. AgRural also said that as of last Thursday, the sowing rate of the second - season corn in the central - southern region of Brazil in 2026 was 97% [12]. - According to Steel Union data, as of March 20, the total planned shipment volume of soybeans from Brazilian ports to China was 8.538009 million tons. Although slightly lower than last week's 8.660012 million tons, it was still at the highest level in recent years. The corresponding arrival in China is from mid - to late April to early May, and the shipment has increased significantly. In terms of shipments, as of March 20, the total shipment volume from Brazilian ports to China since March was 6.535711 million tons, an increase of 2.624315 million tons from the previous week [13]. - AgMarket.net company reported that it is expected that the U.S. soybean planting area this spring will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in February. The market is closely watching the planting intention report to be released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture next Monday [13]. - The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of March 13, 2026, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 7.5243 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, 1.2651 million tons more than a week ago and 6.7064 million tons in the same period last year. The sales pace has accelerated significantly. The total soybean inventory in Argentina in February was 5.2875 million tons, a decrease of 899,500 tons from the previous month. The industrial inventory in Argentina in January was 1.2537 million tons, a decrease of 268,600 tons from the previous month [13]. - According to the European Commission, as of March 22, the import volume of palm oil in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 2.11 million tons, compared with 2.13 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of soybean meal in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 13.23 million tons, compared with 13.72 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of rapeseed in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 3.37 million tons, compared with 5.02 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of soybeans in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 8.92 million tons, compared with 10.02 million tons in the same period last year [14]. - The Agricultural Economics Department of Paraná State in Brazil (Deral) reported on Tuesday that the harvested area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 82% of the planted area, an increase of 12 percentage points from the previous week, but lagging behind the 90% harvest progress in the same period of the previous year. Deral said that the soybean harvest in most areas had entered the later stage or was completed, and the work was occasionally suspended due to rainfall. More than 90% of the crops had matured. The weekly report showed that the yield per unit area varied greatly, mainly affected by the uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the growth cycle and drought during the critical period (especially in late - sown areas) [14]. - According to an AgroConsult survey, the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 184.7 million tons, higher than the previous expectation of 183.1 million tons, because both the planting area and the expected yield per unit area have been increased. It is estimated that the soybean planting area in Brazil is 49.1 million hectares, an increase of 300,000 hectares from the previous estimate. The national average soybean yield per unit area is also expected to increase from the previous estimate of 62.5 bags per hectare to 62.7 bags per hectare [15]. - The preview of the planting intention area report at the end of the month shows that the U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 85.549 million acres, higher than the 81.215 million acres planted last year and also exceeding the 85 million acres estimated by the USDA Outlook Forum [15]. - The Rural Economic Research Institute of Paraná State in Brazil (Deral) estimated that the soybean crop output in the state in the 2025/26 season would be 21.89 million tons, lower than the 22.12 million tons estimated in February [15]. - The Animal and Plant Health Service (SDA) under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture issued a document stating that in a meeting with Chinese officials, the two sides reached a consensus and recognized that, given the characteristics of soybean production, it is impossible to ensure that soybeans are completely free of any weed seeds. Based on this consensus, the relevant Chinese departments agreed that the "zero - tolerance" quarantine standard for weeds will no longer be applied to soybean cargoes imported from Brazil for domestic processing purposes. Currently, the specific threshold for acceptable weed content has not been determined and will be finalized through bilateral consultations [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the U.S. soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot prices of soybean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the spread between the May - September contracts of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in the CBOT, the precipitation and temperature in the U.S. and Argentine soybean - producing areas, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil, the crop conditions of soybeans in Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and in oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory in oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [17][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][35][39][42][44].

Report Information - Report date: March 24, 2026 [2] - Report industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The external market of US soybean futures contracts is relatively strong, with the main contract approaching 1170 cents. The news of Trump's postponement of his visit to China has a significant impact on the market, but the trade negotiations between China and the US are relatively stable, and it is estimated that China will continue to purchase US soybeans at a normal level. The Middle East situation has escalated, and the logic of rising agricultural product planting costs driven by energy prices still holds, providing a basis for the CBOT to remain at a relatively high level. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the survey data from a third - party institution indicating a potential increase in the planting area of new - season US soybeans. Before the USDA's March - end area report and a turning point in the war, the external market may remain strong [6]. - In the domestic market, the change in the soybean export quarantine process in Brazil has slowed down the shipping progress in mid - March. Based on the shipping time window, the supply - demand situation will be relatively tight before the end of April, so the 05 contract theoretically has some support. However, considering that a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will flow into the market in May, it is expected that the basis will likely increase in the future [6]. Market Review Contract Quotes | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 3030 | 3020 | 3035 | 2972 | 3007 | - 23 | - 0.76% | 1259866 | 1783092 | - 66806 | | Soybean Meal 2607 | 2888 | 2899 | 2927 | 2880 | 2914 | 26 | 0.90% | 76591 | 531699 | 1684 | | Soybean Meal 2509 | 3031 | 3046 | 3070 | 3021 | 3050 | 19 | 0.63% | 482552 | 1074476 | 45750 | [6] Market Influencing Factors - External market: The news of Trump's postponement of his visit to China has cast a shadow on the previously optimistic expectations of US soybean export demand. However, the trade negotiations between China and the US at the Paris meeting are relatively stable, and it is estimated that China will continue to purchase US soybeans at a normal level. The Middle East situation has escalated, and the logic of rising agricultural product planting costs driven by energy prices still holds, providing a basis for the CBOT to remain at a relatively high level. A third - party institution's survey data shows a potential increase in the planting area of new - season US soybeans, mainly due to corn - to - soybean conversion [6]. - Domestic market: The change in the soybean export quarantine process in Brazil has slowed down the shipping progress in mid - March. The supply - demand situation will be relatively tight before the end of April, providing support for the 05 contract. However, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will flow into the market in May, and it is expected that the basis will likely increase [6]. Industry News USDA March Supply - Demand Report - Argentina: The 2025/2026 soybean production forecast is lowered from 48.5 million tons last month to 48 million tons, and the export volume of 8.25 million tons remains unchanged [9]. - Brazil: The soybean production is 180 million tons, and the export volume is 114 million tons, both remaining unchanged from last month [9]. - China: The import volume of 112 million tons remains unchanged from last month [9]. - Global: The global production is slightly lowered to 427.18 million tons (from 428.18 million tons in February), and the global inventory is slightly lowered to 125.31 million tons (from 125.51 million tons in February) [9]. - US: The sown area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 81.2 million acres, the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, the yield per unit is 53 bushels, the production is 4.262 billion bushels, the export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 350 million bushels, all remaining unchanged from February. The import volume and crushing volume are both increased by 50 million bushels [9][10]. China's Soybean Import Data In February 2026, the total import volume of soybeans was 5.976 million tons, the lowest this year. It increased by 146,000 tons (2.50%) compared with 5.83 million tons in the same period last year and decreased by 595,000 tons compared with 6.571 million tons in the previous month [10]. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the Soybean Meal 05 contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][17]