一拖股份 20250616 摘要 粮食价格触底反弹，特别是玉米和大豆价格上涨，作为农机需求的前瞻 指标，预计将持续推动农业机械市场需求，对公司业绩产生正面影响。 我国主要农作物如玉米和小麦的轮作机制使得粮食价格对农机需求有直 接影响。 公司通过降价修复，库存已接近正常水平，去库存周期结束，解决了毛 利率下降的问题，为未来业绩增长奠定基础。2022 年国三标准、国四 标准实施导致过度满足终端采购需求，使得 2023 年上半年社会面时效 差。 新的农机购置补贴政策提高了动力换挡机型的市场竞争力，公司采取积 极定价策略推进产品渗透率，虽然短期内可能折损部分毛利率，但长期 来看将显著提升公司在高端农业机械市场中的竞争力。 港股回购政策增强投资者信心，优化资本结构，提高每股收益，对公司 整体财务状况产生积极作用，是推荐该股票的重要逻辑之一，有助于进 一步提升其市场表现和投资价值。 2025 年第三季度，预计收入环比增长，毛利率提升，主要受益于华北 平原销售马力数更大且秋季双抢旺季推动收入增长，以及一季度去库存 力度降低。预计 2025 年三季度利润率同比增长 2.5 到 3 个百分点，达 到 30%以上。 今年下半年及 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the positive impact of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policies on farmers and cooperatives, enabling them to acquire advanced machinery at reduced costs [2][4] - The cooperative mentioned has benefited from over 600,000 yuan in subsidies since the implementation of the policy, allowing them to expand their machinery fleet to over 30 units, including advanced technologies like unmanned aerial vehicles and precision planting machines [2][3] - The introduction of "smart agricultural machinery" has led to tangible benefits in agricultural production, such as a 1% reduction in harvesting losses and improved planting accuracy, contributing to increased crop yields [3][4] Group 2 - The city has effectively advanced its agricultural machinery purchase subsidy program, completing settlements for 45 units and disbursing approximately 447,900 yuan in subsidies, with an outstanding amount of 1,928,600 yuan pending [4] - The rapid and precise distribution of subsidy funds has lowered the barriers for agricultural producers to upgrade their equipment, thereby accelerating the modernization of agriculture and enhancing operational efficiency [4]