农药景气触底回升

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扬农化工(600486):一季报点评:Q1业绩同比微增,农药景气有望触底回升
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 09:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance shows a slight year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit, with revenue reaching 3.24 billion yuan, up 2%, and net profit at 430 million yuan, up 1% [1] - The core products' prices continue to decline, but there are signs of potential recovery in the agricultural chemical industry as inventory levels decrease and seasonal demand begins [3] - The company is optimizing its product layout through project advancements, and recent policy changes may catalyze a recovery in the agricultural chemical market [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company's raw materials and formulations revenue were 1.81 billion yuan (up 4.75% YoY) and 870 million yuan (up 1.10% YoY), respectively. Raw material sales volume was 28,700 tons (up 14.82% YoY) with an average price of 63,000 yuan/ton (down 8.77% YoY). Formulation sales volume was 15,400 tons (up 2.77% YoY) with an average price of 56,600 yuan/ton (down 1.63% YoY) [2] - The company's expense ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%, with gross and net profit margins at 24.6% and 13.4%, respectively [2] Market Outlook - The prices of key products such as high-efficiency chlorpyrifos and glyphosate have seen declines of 1.5%, 8.5%, and 9.1% YoY, but some products are beginning to stabilize and rise in price due to seasonal demand [3] - The completion of the first phase of the Huludao project ahead of schedule and the implementation of the "one certificate, one product" policy are expected to reduce market homogenization and improve competition [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.482 billion, 1.764 billion, and 2.025 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 19.06%, and 14.79%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are 14, 12, and 10 times [5]