扬农化工 20250916 摘要 农药行业呈现约五至六年周期性，受资本开支和需求变化驱动。当前处 于下行周期末尾，始于 2022 年 Q3，预计 2025 年 Q2 结束，历时近三 年。行业正显现反转信号，如价格触及十年低位，部分原药价格指数已 反转。 2025 年 Q2 中国农药制剂出口在连续十个季度下滑后显著改善，尤其除 草剂同比大幅增长，表明行业景气度可能上升。美国农化品库存同比变 动曲线在 2025 年 Q2 重新上穿 0 轴，与中国出口数据形成呼应，是复 苏信号。 补库和去库显著影响农药需求，补库阶段采购需求可能达正常水平的 130%，而去库阶段可能仅为 70%。补库是行业景气度变化的信号，而 非核心驱动因素。 中国农药生产企业数量降至约 1,600 家，但仍有 50%未进入化工园区， 供给侧改革仍有效。2021-2023 年新增原药产能投放有限，对市场供 应冲击不大。 Q&A 农药行业的景气周期是如何变化的？目前处于什么阶段？ 农药行业具有明显的周期性波动特征，通常与人口增长和粮食种植面积相关。 过去 20 年中，农药行业经历了四轮完整的周期，每轮周期大约持续 5-6 年， 包括上行和下行两个阶段 ...

Industry Research Summary - Pesticide Industry Industry Overview - The global pesticide market is approximately $70 billion, highly concentrated with multinational companies such as Syngenta, FMC, Bayer, Corteva, and BASF dominating the market, providing integrated services of seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides [1][2] - The domestic pesticide market in China is fragmented, influenced by historical factors and the participation of both domestic and foreign enterprises. About 70% of raw material exports are for international markets, while 30% are for domestic sales [1][4] Market Dynamics - In 2021, a significant increase in demand occurred due to inventory replenishment, but prices began to decline from Q4 2022, leading to a bottoming out phase in 2024 and 2025 [1][5] - Key products expected to perform well in 2025 include Bacillus subtilis, Mancozeb, Abamectin, Methomyl, and Acetochlor, driven by factors such as disease outbreaks and supply shortages [1][6] Supply and Demand Analysis - Glyphosate has a global supply of approximately 1.2 million tons, with China supplying 800,000 tons and Monsanto accounting for 370,000-380,000 tons. The global demand is around 900,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75% [1][9] - The price of glyphosate has increased from 23,000 yuan to 27,000 yuan per ton due to reduced supply and declining inventory, leading to improved profitability for companies [1][9] Product-Specific Insights - Glyphosate's future outlook is optimistic due to stable supply-demand dynamics and no new capacity additions allowed by policy [1][8] - In contrast, Glufosinate has faced oversupply issues since being listed in a restricted directory in 2024, with demand growth lagging behind supply growth, resulting in poor price and margin performance [1][10][11] Company-Specific Strategies - Yangnong Chemical's investment logic is based on capacity expansion and price elasticity opportunities, while Limin Co. focuses on reversing its main business challenges and developing innovative products [1][13] - Guangxin's core competitiveness lies in its comprehensive layout along the phosgene industrial chain, enabling it to achieve the lowest cost operations [1][15] - Runfeng Company emphasizes global formulation channel development, achieving periodic growth through continuous registration and channel establishment [1][16] Key Considerations for Industry Analysis - Important factors to monitor include cyclical trends, supply-demand relationships, the development of innovative products, and the characteristics of the formulation industry, which is asset-light and high-turnover [1][17] - Tracking inventory can be done through multinational company financial reports, communication with listed companies, and industry exhibitions [1][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the pesticide and veterinary drug industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Jiangsu Fengshan Group's pesticide business is the main source of revenue, while the new energy and advanced materials segments are still developing [19]. - Recent price increases for products such as chlorpyrifos and glyphosate are attributed to upstream raw material supply constraints, particularly due to environmental compliance issues affecting production [20][21]. - The company maintains strong relationships with suppliers, ensuring stable production despite raw material shortages [21]. - The overall capacity utilization is at historical highs, contributing to improved profit margins due to price increases [21]. - The agricultural industry is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a positive outlook for the pesticide sector as inventory levels normalize and demand increases [22][23]. - The company is optimistic about its performance in 2025, driven by strategic operational improvements and new product launches [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Company Information - Jiangsu Fengshan Group operates in three main segments: pesticides, new energy electronic chemicals, and advanced materials [19]. 2. Key Issues Discussed - Recent price trends for chlorpyrifos and glyphosate, with chlorpyrifos priced around 4.1 and glyphosate at approximately 50,000 to 52,000 per ton, are discussed [20]. - The impact of raw material supply constraints on production and pricing is emphasized [20][21]. 3. Future Industry Outlook - The pesticide industry is cyclical, with expectations for recovery in 2025 as inventory levels are addressed and demand increases [22][23]. - The company is focused on enhancing its operational strategies to boost performance in the upcoming year [24].