报告期内，面对农资市场行情低迷等不利因素，公司坚持"防风险、提质效"原则，持续稳固上游核心资 源、深入推进服务网络建设；并针对性加强内控建设与资源整合，管理增效成果持续强化，运营管理质 效显著提升。同时，进一步加强市场行情研判与分析，合理控制采销节奏，在持续扛稳农资保供稳价责 任的前提下，较好地把握住了市场机遇，业务经营效益显著提升。 格隆汇1月22日丨天禾股份(002999.SZ)公布，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润4,100万元～ 6,000万元，比上年同期增长84.35%～169.78%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润3,600万元～5,300万元， 比上年同期增长103.05%～198.93%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into the operational effectiveness of the agricultural material market in Donghai County highlights significant improvements in supply and sales, ensuring stable agricultural production support [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The merchant occupancy rate of the agricultural material market reached 100% [1] - The coverage rate of rural sales outlets also achieved 100% [1] - Annual sales are expected to grow by 10%, with market rental income increasing by 10% as well [1] Group 2: Supply Stability - The agricultural material supply ensures 70% of pesticides and 30% of fertilizers are consistently available, crucial for key agricultural periods such as spring plowing and summer planting [1] - The county aims to strengthen precise supply-demand scheduling and enhance services in logistics, distribution, and storage [1] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Donghai County Supply and Marketing Cooperative plans to optimize work measures and improve service levels to provide high-quality, efficient, and stable agricultural material support [1]

Group 1 - The State Council meeting emphasized the importance of continuing efforts in autumn harvest and planting, with expectations for a good grain harvest this year and sufficient supply of agricultural products [1] - The meeting highlighted the challenges posed by continuous rain since late September, which has affected autumn grain harvesting and planting [1] - Experts suggest that collaboration among various departments is crucial to ensure timely harvesting and planting, as well as to stabilize the supply and prices of agricultural materials [1][3] Group 2 - The meeting called for the effective use of policy-based storage to support market entities in increasing grain purchases, ensuring farmers' income [1] - Starting from October 17, the minimum purchase price policy for medium and late rice will be implemented in eligible areas of Henan Province [1][2] - The meeting also stressed the importance of utilizing agricultural disaster relief funds and ensuring insurance claims to mitigate farmers' losses due to disasters [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 14.72 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, also showing a 5.0% increase, meeting expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.72 billion RMB, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, which is a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share reached 0.15 RMB, marking a 5.0% year-on-year growth [1]. Business Segments - The company's core business segments achieved significant growth, with revenues from basic, growth, and production businesses reaching 7.56 billion, 5.86 billion, and 1.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 5.4%, and 4.2% [2]. - The basic business, which includes strategic procurement of potassium, phosphorus, and sulfur fertilizers, played a crucial role in stabilizing domestic agricultural supply and prices [2]. - The growth business, focusing on bio-composite fertilizers and specialty fertilizers, saw a 51% increase in high-end fertilizer sales, with notable core products gaining brand influence [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits to reach 1.23 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.59 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.7%, and 12.1% respectively [3]. - The upward revision of performance forecasts is attributed to rising domestic potassium prices and sustained high growth in bio-fertilizers [3]. - The target price has been raised to 1.8 HKD, corresponding to an 8.2 times forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 1.8, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 1.4 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 14.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and net profit of RMB 1.1 billion, up 5.0% [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the rise in domestic potash prices and the continued high growth of the company's bio-fertilizers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 14.72 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.1 billion, and earnings per share of RMB 0.15, all reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, 5.0%, and 5.0% respectively [2][4]. - The company's core business segments, including basic, growth, and production businesses, reported revenues of RMB 7.56 billion, RMB 5.86 billion, and RMB 1.3 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 5.4%, and 4.2% respectively [3]. Business Development - The company is focusing on high-quality development across its various business segments, particularly in bio-composite fertilizers and specialty fertilizers, which saw a 51% increase in high-end fertilizer sales [3]. - The production segment faced challenges with a significant drop in prices for synthetic ammonia and urea, leading to a decrease in pre-tax profits [3]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits to reach RMB 1.23 billion, RMB 1.41 billion, and RMB 1.59 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.7%, and 12.1% respectively [4].