决策质量
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新研究:决策反馈可能增加人们冒险倾向
Xin Hua She· 2026-02-10 01:41
研究人员指出,该研究有助于更深入地理解风险情境下决策的认知机制。结果表明,反馈可能会提升人 们对风险的偏好而非促进理性学习。这提示人们需重新审视反馈在决策中的作用,尤其是在金融、健康 或公共政策等领域。 相关研究论文已发表在英国《自然-通讯》杂志上。(完) 研究人员在实验中提供两种形式的反馈,即部分反馈(只给出所选选项的结果)或完整反馈(给出两种 可能选项的结果),随后观察受试者收到反馈后下一次决策行为的变化。 结果显示,与无反馈的情况相比,总体上收到反馈会让受试者的风险决策行为系统性地增加35%至 45%,但其决策质量并未因此显著提升。进一步分析认为,部分反馈条件下的冒险倾向增加可能由好奇 心驱动,完整反馈条件下的冒险倾向增加可能是由于担心选错而后悔。 新华社巴黎2月9日电(记者罗毓)反馈通常被视为"吃一堑长一智"、改善未来选择的一种手段。然而, 法国研究人员参与的一项新研究表明,决策后收到的反馈并不会让后续决策质量更优,而是可能增加人 们的冒险倾向。 在日常生活的许多场景中,人们做出决策后往往会收到相关结果的反馈,例如经济收益或损失、事情的 成败等。主流理论认为,这种反馈能让人逐步调整认知,并学会在反复决 ...
金融破段子 | 投资中的勤奋与噪音
中泰证券资管· 2026-02-09 11:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concepts of "diligence" and "noise" in the context of investment, emphasizing the need for investors to align their diligence with their investment framework to avoid mismatched efforts [2][4]. Group 1: Types of Diligence - There are two types of diligence in investing: one focuses on rapid information collection and processing, while the other emphasizes deep research and understanding of industry dynamics and company moats [4][6]. - The first type of diligence is characterized by quick responses to market information, aiming to capture temporary pricing discrepancies, but it can lead to continuous pressure from information overload [6]. - The second type of diligence prioritizes the quality of decisions over quantity, requiring investors to be patient and derive satisfaction from cognitive growth rather than immediate market rewards [6]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The two types of diligence represent different worldviews and investment philosophies, where the choice of approach should align with an individual's talents, temperament, and available resources [6]. - A critical aspect of successful investing is accurate self-awareness, which helps investors avoid the pitfalls of mismatched diligence that can lead to increased stress [6].
查理·芒格的人生管理课:20%的决策决定80%的人生,做好最有价值的事 | 螺丝钉带你读书
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-17 13:51
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of time management and decision-making quality in investment, drawing insights from Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett's philosophies on managing time and work effectively [2][11]. Time Management - Time is a finite resource, and even the most successful individuals have the same amount of it [4]. - The "80/20 rule" suggests that only 20% of tasks are truly valuable, while 80% have minimal impact [6]. - Focusing on improving decision quality within that critical 20% is essential [6]. Decision-Making - Major life decisions, such as career choices and financial planning, can significantly alter one's life trajectory [7][12]. - Munger and Buffett allocate substantial time for reflection and reading, which enhances their decision-making capabilities [7]. - The article highlights the tendency of individuals to overanalyze trivial matters while rushing significant life decisions [7]. Surrounding Oneself with Excellence - Associating with intelligent and successful individuals can elevate one's own decision-making quality [9]. - The difference in outcomes among investors can be attributed to the quality of information and insights gained from peers [9]. - Experienced investors tend to achieve better average returns compared to novices, especially those who have weathered market fluctuations [9]. Personal Development - Finding a fulfilling career is crucial, and it may take time to discover one's passion [11]. - The article encourages individuals to seek out wise and capable companions to foster mutual growth and learning [11].