来源 | 中国人民大学出版社 作者 | 大卫·史文森 预计阅读时间：7分钟 导读： 在历史的长周期中，观察价格波动与价值内核的复杂互动，这种超越短期波动的视角，或许 是当下市场稀缺的认知维度。 《财富、战争与智慧》一书，便 通过研究历史上全球资本市场的真实轨迹，揭示了一个超越特定历 史背景的深刻规律——当社会面临重大转折与不确定性时，资本市场依然遵循着价值发现与价格重 估的基本逻辑。旧秩序的打破与新平衡的建立，往往伴随着资本定价机制的深刻调整，而非简单的 崩溃或停滞。 以下内容转自耶鲁大学原首席投资官大卫·史文森为本书作序推荐，希望能有助于大家，从在历史的 维度里，重新理解风险与机会。 一本独具匠心、不可多得的上乘之作 大卫·史文森 30年来，巴顿·比格斯笔耕不辍，在摩根士丹利的《投资展望》这本刊物上，有他写下的金融界最优雅、 最有洞察力的文字。 比格斯擅长写作，部分原因是他在20世纪50年代就读于耶鲁大学英文系。 他深谙金融市场，部分原因是他在20世纪60年代末和70年代初管理费尔菲尔德基金的投资业务，在70— 90年代任职于摩根士丹利，以及在21世纪初创立特雷西基金。 他在特雷西基金的工作尽管繁忙，仍不辞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article serves as a summary of selected articles from 2025, aimed at providing readers with a convenient way to review, share, and collect valuable content related to investment knowledge and practical insights [1][2]. Investment Knowledge and Insights - The summary includes insights on investment fundamentals, addressing common questions faced by investors during the fund investment process [2]. - Key topics covered include the development stages of index funds in the US stock market, the concept of stablecoins, and strategies for enhancing index investments [4][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding different investment products and their performance in various market conditions, including how to manage risks and optimize returns [4][5]. Investment Strategies and Performance - Highlights include the performance of various investment portfolios, such as the "螺丝钉投顾组合" which has achieved notable results over its four-year history [4]. - The article discusses the benefits of using index funds for global stock market investments and the introduction of features like automatic profit-taking to enhance investment management [4]. - It also mentions the recent high performance of the "365天投顾组合" and explores the sources of its returns, questioning whether adjustments are needed in the current market environment [4]. Practical Knowledge - The article provides practical advice on tax filing deadlines and benefits available for families, such as child-rearing subsidies [5]. - It encourages readers to stay informed about investment opportunities and market trends, including the significance of annual shareholder letters from influential investors like Warren Buffett [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment philosophy of Warren Buffett, particularly focusing on the concept of "economic moats" and how it influences value investing strategies. It contrasts different investment styles, including growth investing and value investing, and highlights the importance of understanding a company's competitive advantages for long-term investment success [3][31][42]. Group 1: Investment Styles - The article introduces two distinct investment styles represented by different investment masters: growth investing, exemplified by firms like Baidu, and value investing, represented by Buffett [5][12]. - Growth investing focuses on identifying sectors with significant future potential and making early investments, even in companies that are not yet publicly listed [13][14]. - Value investing, particularly Buffett's approach, has evolved from deep value strategies to a focus on purchasing high-quality companies at reasonable prices for long-term holding [27][30]. Group 2: Economic Moats - Economic moats are essential for identifying companies with sustainable competitive advantages, which are crucial for long-term profitability [36][42]. - Buffett's moat theory emphasizes the importance of a company's ability to maintain its competitive edge over time, which is vital for delivering substantial returns to investors [37][38]. - The article provides an example of how Buffett invested in Apple when it had established itself as a leader in the smartphone market, demonstrating the application of the moat concept in investment decisions [43]. Group 3: Historical Context - The evolution of Buffett's investment strategies is traced from his early "cigar butt" approach during World War II, where he capitalized on undervalued companies, to a more sophisticated strategy post-war that focused on a basket of undervalued stocks [16][22]. - The article notes that the investment landscape changed significantly after the war, leading to a shift in strategies among value investors, including the adoption of low P/E and low P/B strategies [23][25]. - The influence of peers like Charlie Munger and John Bogle on Buffett's investment philosophy is highlighted, showcasing how collaboration and shared insights can shape investment approaches [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous investment in undervalued quality assets, particularly through index funds, as a more suitable approach for most ordinary investors compared to individual stock picking [3][4][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors have two main tasks in investment: to work diligently to increase their savings and to continuously invest in undervalued quality assets [3][4]. - Quality assets include both individual stocks and index funds, with the latter being more appropriate for the majority of families due to lower time and risk requirements [5][10]. - The article discusses the classic dilemma of whether to invest in individual stocks or index funds, highlighting the author's personal journey from stock picking to primarily investing in funds [7][9]. Group 2: Risks and Considerations - Both individual stocks and index funds carry market volatility risks, but individual stocks also face operational risks due to the finite lifespan of companies [12][14]. - Historical data shows that a significant percentage of companies listed in the U.S. stock market have disappeared over time, indicating the inherent risks of individual stock investments [16][22]. Group 3: Index Fund Advantages - Index funds possess a unique ability to adapt and replace older companies with new ones, effectively achieving longevity in investment [24][25]. - The article notes that the composition of indices, such as the ChiNext Index, has changed significantly over the past decade, demonstrating the dynamic nature of index investing [27][28]. - Ordinary investors are encouraged to start with index funds, which are easier to manage and less risky compared to individual stocks [30][36]. Group 4: Recommended Indexes - Suitable index funds for ordinary investors include broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and strategy indices such as the A-share leader strategy [31][32]. - For global stock market investments, global stock indices are recommended, although there may be restrictions on purchasing overseas funds from mainland investors [33][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of two key abilities in investment: the ability to earn money and the ability to save money, highlighting that these are distinct skills that impact financial success [5][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Dollar-cost averaging (定投) does not require timing the market; instead, it focuses on regular investments regardless of market conditions [3]. - Investors can choose to buy undervalued assets during market dips, which is a strategic approach to dollar-cost averaging [3]. - The essence of dollar-cost averaging is converting human capital into financial assets through consistent investment [3][4]. Group 2: Saving and Spending Habits - The ability to save money is crucial, as demonstrated by examples of individuals who earned significant wealth but failed to manage it effectively post-retirement [6][7]. - Spending habits are influenced by the source of wealth; unexpected gains often lead to less cautious spending compared to earned income [11][12]. - It is recommended to control lifestyle inflation, ideally keeping increases in living expenses within 150% of previous spending levels after financial gains [14]. Group 3: Savings Rate Insights - A household savings rate of 20% is considered a benchmark for financial health, with higher savings rates correlating with wealth and income levels [18][19]. - The article provides statistics showing that the top 1% of earners save 51% of their income, while the lowest 20% save only 1% [19]. - A practical tip for increasing savings is to match spending with investment, such as buying an asset equivalent to the amount spent on a luxury item [20][21]. Group 4: Summary of Investment Tasks - The two main tasks in investment and financial management are to work diligently to increase savings rates and to consistently invest in undervalued quality assets [22].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of systematic investment, particularly through regular contributions to financial assets, which can be achieved without needing unlimited cash flow [15][17][30] - The article discusses that every working individual is essentially engaging in a form of systematic investment through mandatory contributions to social security and pension plans [6][7][8] - It highlights that additional investments in stock funds are necessary to enhance long-term returns beyond traditional savings [9][10] Group 2 - The article explains that systematic investment does not require infinite cash flow, as it is closely tied to the individual's "human capital" which generates cash flow [18][19][30] - It outlines a typical investment timeline, suggesting that the primary period for systematic investment is from age 25 to retirement, allowing for approximately 1800 weekly investments or 450 monthly investments [27][31] - The article also notes that with increasing life expectancy and aging populations, future generations may have the opportunity to make even more systematic investments [28][29] Group 3 - The article contrasts systematic investment with the concept of phased investment, where investors may choose to invest a lump sum over time to mitigate volatility risks [39][41] - It explains that phased investment involves using existing capital, while systematic investment relies on future income streams that are not currently available [48][49] - The article concludes by suggesting that understanding how to increase available funds for systematic investment is crucial for effective financial planning [49]

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the book "Continuous Investment," emphasizing the importance of consistent investment without timing the market to achieve financial freedom through cash flow accumulation [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The book discusses two common behaviors associated with market timing: investing based on valuation and predicting future market trends [6][9]. - It highlights that systematic investment (定投) is inherently non-timing based, focusing on regular investment intervals regardless of market conditions [12][22]. - The article suggests maintaining discipline in systematic investment, recommending a comfortable frequency such as weekly or monthly [13]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Investor Behavior - The article notes that from 2022 to 2024, a prolonged bear market occurred, with over 94% of investors using active selection strategies remaining profitable by 2025 Q3 [14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of sticking to a systematic investment plan during market downturns to mitigate panic and emotional decision-making [15]. - The article illustrates that during high market valuations, investors can adjust their systematic investment to include other asset classes, such as bonds, instead of equities [16][22]. Group 3: Real-World Examples - The article references Warren Buffett's investment strategy, which involves using cash flow from his numerous private companies to fund systematic investments, adjusting asset allocation based on market conditions [16]. - It compares investment strategies to grocery shopping, where purchasing decisions are based on current prices rather than fixed choices, advocating for flexibility in investment selections [20]. - The article concludes that long-term investment success is more about having capital available than about timing the market [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the annual Double Eleven shopping festival, emphasizing the opportunity for consumers to purchase books at discounted prices, particularly in the investment and finance category [1][2]. Discount Benefits - The company has prepared special purchasing benefits for the Double Eleven event, including a discount of 120 yuan for purchases over 300 yuan, with coupons available on the product page [5]. - The promotional period is from November 9, 2025, at 20:00 to November 11, 2025, at 24:00 [5]. Selected Books for Investment and Finance - The company has selected six notable investment and finance books for this promotion, including: 1. **"Active Fund Investment Guide"** - A comprehensive introduction to active funds, covering what they are, how to buy and sell them, and investment strategies [11]. 2. **"Index Fund Investment Guide"** - Suitable for beginners, this book discusses 256 mainstream index funds in China and provides investment strategies for ordinary investors [13][14]. 3. **"Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment"** - This book details the concept of regular investment, making it ideal for working professionals with steady cash flow [17]. 4. **"Long-Term Stock Market Secrets"** - A globally bestselling book updated with nearly 30 years of new data, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term wealth accumulation method [19][20]. 5. **"Trillion Index"** - A narrative on the history of index funds, featuring stories of investment masters and industry elites [25]. 6. **"Patient Capital"** - This book illustrates the journeys of long-term investment pioneers, providing insights into managing family assets [26][27]. Additional Recommendations - The article also mentions various other financial and investment-related books, categorized into different themes such as professional investment, wealth thinking, and workplace improvement, providing a comprehensive reading list for interested individuals [49][75][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the different stages of a company's lifecycle and the corresponding investment opportunities and valuation methods associated with each stage [3][4][20]. Group 1: Company Lifecycle Stages - The company lifecycle consists of four main stages: Deep Growth, Growth, Growth Value, and Deep Value [4][16]. - In the Deep Growth stage, companies are newly listed with small revenue but experience rapid growth [4]. - The Growth stage sees companies with larger revenue and continued high growth [4]. - In the Growth Value stage, revenue growth slows, but profitability remains high due to effective cost control [4][15]. - The Deep Value stage is characterized by slow growth in both revenue and profit, with companies focusing on stable high dividends [4][17]. Group 2: Valuation Methods - Different stages of a company's lifecycle require different valuation methods [6][7]. - Common valuation metrics include Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B), Price-to-Sales (P/S), Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF), and Dividend Yield [9]. - The stability of financial metrics is crucial for selecting appropriate valuation indicators; for instance, stable earnings allow for the use of P/E ratios [9][11]. - In the Growth stage, companies often reinvest earnings, making P/E ratios less relevant, while P/S ratios may be more applicable [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Companies in the Growth Value stage can be evaluated using P/E ratios once their Return on Equity (ROE) stabilizes, indicating a competitive advantage [15]. - Deep Value companies typically provide returns through high dividends or share buybacks, making dividend stability critical for their stock prices [18][19]. - The article emphasizes that a comprehensive analysis of a company's operational situation is essential, rather than relying solely on valuation metrics [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the different stages of a company's lifecycle and the corresponding investment opportunities available at each stage, emphasizing the importance of understanding these stages for effective investment strategies [2][11]. Group 1: Company Lifecycle Stages - The company lifecycle is divided into six stages: startup, venture capital, deep growth, growth, growth value, and deep value [2][11]. - The startup stage corresponds to angel investment, focusing on creating a product prototype [3]. - The venture capital stage includes multiple rounds of financing (A, B, C) aimed at developing a commercial product and expanding the customer base [4][12]. Group 2: Investment Styles - After a company goes public, it enters the deep growth stage, characterized by rapid growth in market share, revenue, and profits [13][14]. - The deep growth style is less common among funds, but many new stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market fit this category [16]. - The growth style typically involves companies that have been listed for some time and maintain high revenue and profit growth rates, with a higher tolerance for valuation [18][21]. Group 3: Value Investment Styles - The growth value style represents companies nearing revenue ceilings, with slower growth rates, exemplified by Warren Buffett's investment strategies [29][30]. - The deep value style focuses on companies with stable dividends and high dividend yields, often associated with low price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [36][39]. - The article notes that different investment styles do not have a clear superiority over the long term, but there are noticeable style rotations in the A-share market over 3-5 years [43][45]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Understanding the characteristics of different investment styles allows for strategic adjustments based on valuation opportunities, such as increasing allocations to undervalued styles or taking profits from overvalued ones [49][51]. - The article highlights a past strategy where the company shifted from high-valued growth styles to value styles during market fluctuations [51].