冷冻烘焙行业渗透率提升

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立高食品(300973):奶油驱动营收增长,效率提升优化盈利
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-05 15:26
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that revenue growth is driven by cream products, with efficiency improvements optimizing profitability. The company is expected to continue benefiting from the rapid growth phase of the frozen baking industry in China, leveraging its advantages in scale, capital, management, and R&D [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 38.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.61%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.68 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 266.94% [6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.46 billion yuan, up 14.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.88 billion yuan, which is a 15.11% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is reported at 31.47%, with a net profit margin of 6.99%, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9 percentage points [6]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from frozen baked goods and baking raw materials was 21.33 billion yuan and 16.75 billion yuan, respectively. The cream products within the baking raw materials segment saw a revenue increase of 61.75% [6]. - The sales channels for 2024 included 22.22 billion yuan from distribution, 15.86 billion yuan from direct sales, and 0.09 billion yuan from retail, with the growth primarily driven by the distribution channel [6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates that the company has optimized its expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing in 2024 compared to the previous year [6]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 8.45%, showing a slight year-on-year increase [6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the increasing demand for cream and sauce products, with rapid growth anticipated in the whipped cream segment [6]. - The competitive landscape is improving, which is seen as a catalyst for the stock price increase [6].