分红方面，立高食品A股上市后累计派现4.88亿元。近三年，累计派现3.19亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，立高食品十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股311.38万股，相比上期减少277.83万股。易方达裕鑫债券A（003133）位居第十大流通股 东，持股196.56万股，为新进股东。 融券方面，立高食品2月24日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出4600.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额19.17 万元；融券余量4900.00股，融券余额20.42万元，低于近一年20%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，立高食品股份有限公司位于广东省广州市增城区石滩镇兴石一路3号，成立日期2000年5月11 日，上市日期2021年4月15日，公司主营业务涉及从事烘焙食品原料及冷冻烘焙食品的研发、生产和销 售。主营业务收入构成为：冷冻烘焙食品54.35%，奶油26.94%，其他7.85%，酱料6.85%，水果制品 4.02%。 截至9月30日，立高食品股东户数1.11万，较上期增加29.70%；人均流通股10522股，较上期减少 22.90%。2025年1月-9月，立高食品实现营业收入31. ...

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy Industry and Beef Cattle Price Trends Industry Overview - **Dairy Industry Supply and Demand Trends**: In 2024, coconut milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, while deep-processed dairy products like cream and cheese will continue to grow, with growth rates anticipated to outpace liquid milk and milk powder in the coming years. The average per capita dairy consumption in China is projected to be just over 40 kg, indicating significant room for improvement compared to developed economies and recommended consumption levels in China [1][1]. - **Low-Temperature and Room-Temperature Milk Consumption Trends**: The consumption scale of low-temperature milk in first-tier cities is approximately 36.6 billion yuan, with second-tier cities at a combined 24.6 billion yuan, and below third-tier cities around 30 billion yuan. The market for low-temperature milk in lower-tier cities is expected to be a core area for rapid expansion over the next five years [1][1]. Market Dynamics - **2024 Consumption Scale**: The consumption scale for room-temperature liquid milk is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan, while low-temperature liquid milk is expected to reach 89.7 billion yuan. Low-temperature milk is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, while room-temperature milk faces a contraction. By 2025, low-temperature milk is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with a penetration rate of 25% in 2024, projected to rise to over 30% by 2029 [2][2]. - **Milk Price Trends and Profitability**: The cumulative decline in milk prices is expected to be 1.1% in 2025, a slight improvement from a 1.9% decline in 2024. Despite demand pressures, dairy companies are expected to see a stabilization in raw milk prices, which have remained between 3.03-3.05 yuan/kg, with a recent increase noted. The improvement in profitability for dairy and beef cattle industries is anticipated to be more pronounced in 2026, with significant cost reductions expected for leading companies [2][2][3]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Recovery for Leading Dairy Companies**: Smaller dairy companies that previously gained competitive advantages through low-priced raw milk are expected to struggle as they lose this cost edge. Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are projected to recover market share in 2026, with optimistic revenue targets set for 2025 [3][3]. - **Yili's Strategic Goals**: Yili aims for a mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, focusing on upgrading flavors in its room-temperature products and expanding its deep-processing business, which targets a scale of 10 billion yuan over five years [3][4]. - **Mengniu's Operational Improvements**: Mengniu, facing more significant internal adjustments, is expected to see a notable improvement in its operational status in 2026, with revenue growth anticipated in early months of the year [3][4]. Beef Cattle Industry Analysis - **Beef Cattle Price Trends**: The beef cattle industry is at a cyclical turning point, with prices expected to rise significantly. The industry has been in a loss cycle since 2023, projected to last until mid-2025, with a recovery in profitability expected in the latter half of 2025. As of early February 2026, prices for various cattle types have shown significant year-on-year increases [5][5]. - **Dairy Cow Inventory and Price Outlook**: The dairy cow inventory reduction is nearing its end, with a cumulative decrease of 8.8% expected by the end of 2025. Current milk prices have dropped below previous cycle lows, but there is an expectation for significant price increases in the latter half of 2026 [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Leading Dairy Companies**: Investors are advised to pay close attention to leading dairy companies such as Yili and Mengniu, as the dairy sector is expected to improve, particularly in the context of rising beef cattle prices and stabilizing milk prices [6][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory reduction ongoing during the Spring Festival cycle. Moutai's performance in terms of volume and price has shown continuous improvement before the festival, and the trend of exchanging price for volume is expected to accelerate inventory reduction [2][7] - The demand for consumer goods is expected to gradually recover, with the Spring Festival stocking period potentially leading to a strong start to the year. Recommended companies include Ganhe Weiye, Guizhou Moutai, Guoquan, Mengniu Dairy, Angel Yeast, Wuliangye, Wancheng Group, Anjixin Food, Qiaqia Food, Babi Food, Ruoyu Chen, Dongpeng Beverage, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kuaijishan [2][7] Summary by Sections Dairy Products Supply and Demand Trends - The deep processing and low-temperature liquid milk sectors are driving structural prosperity in the dairy industry. The price of raw milk has stabilized, indicating an approaching supply-demand inflection point. The total sales scale of various dairy products in China for 2024 is estimated to be approximately 653.5 billion yuan, with liquid milk at 355 billion yuan, milk powder at 176.6 billion yuan, and other dairy products at 121.9 billion yuan. While liquid milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, other dairy products (such as cheese and cream) are projected to continue growing, with growth in other dairy products expected to outpace that of liquid milk and milk powder over the next five years [4][18] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China for 2024 is estimated to be about 40.5 kg per person per year, indicating significant room for improvement compared to the world average and other developed economies [20] - The consumption scale of chilled and ambient liquid milk in 2024 is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan and 89.7 billion yuan, respectively. The penetration rate of chilled milk is expected to rise to over 30% by 2029, up from 25% in 2024 [22] Market Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the Food and Beverage (Yangtze River) Index has risen by 4.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has increased by 0.29%. This performance is primarily driven by the liquor, seasoning, and soft drink sectors due to the stocking effect of the Spring Festival [6][35] - The white liquor sector continues to show improvement in sales dynamics, with high-end liquor performing the best. The overall market is expected to benefit from the ongoing inventory reduction and the gradual recovery of demand [7][35]

Group 1 - The recent inspection by the Weihu City Market Supervision Administration found that Henan Aokun Food Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Lihigh Food (300973), was rated as "unqualified" [1] - The inspection results were recorded on November 25, 2025, indicating regulatory concerns regarding the company's compliance [1] - Henan Aokun Food Co., Ltd. was established in 2019 and focuses on food production and sales, as well as food and technology import and export trade [1] Group 2 - Lihigh Food is a large publicly listed company that integrates the research, production, and sales of baking food ingredients and frozen baked goods [3] - The company's main products include cream, fruit products, sauces, chocolate, and various baked food ingredients and semi-finished products [3] - Henan Aokun Food Co., Ltd. is classified as a tertiary subsidiary under Lihigh Food [3]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 26年收入增长动力清晰，成本压力有望缓解 26年公司增长抓手依旧清晰，奶油有望继续受益于国产替代红利，公司较早投入储备稀奶油，新品一月份 已经进入试销阶段，稀奶油26年有望继续贡献增量。冷冻烘焙目前在核心商超大客户的新品反馈良好，26 年商超渠道有望延续增长，餐饮新零售渠道继续扩张，公司积极把握烘焙渠道多元化趋势，在大单品的基 础上，针对不同渠道、根据使用场景进行延展创新，估计餐饮新零售渠道仍将保持较快发展。成本端，公 司在25年下半年针对部分原材料已采取锁单措施，26年成本压力有望缓解，且公司内部继续推进降本增 效，提高费用投入产出比，预计利润率有望继续改善。 风险提示： 下游需求放缓，原材料成本上涨，新品销售不及预期。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 立高食 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of founder Chai Xiu from key positions at Miaokelando marks the end of the "Chai Xiu era" and signifies full control by Mengniu after the acquisition of the cheese company [1][13]. Company Changes - Chai Xiu has been removed from the positions of Vice Chairman, General Manager, and legal representative, retaining only his board member status [1][13]. - Kuai Yulong, a Mengniu executive, has been appointed as the new General Manager, indicating a shift towards a management team of younger professionals [1][13]. Historical Context - Chai Xiu founded Guangze Dairy in 2001, which became a significant player in the dairy market by 2006, capturing 90% of the local market in Jilin Province [14]. - In 2015, he pivoted the company towards cheese, launching the "Miaokelando" brand focused on children's cheese products [2][14]. - Miaokelando became the first cheese company listed on the A-share market in 2016, with revenue growing from 512 million to 1.744 billion yuan from 2016 to 2019, peaking at 5.32 billion yuan in 2023 [4][16]. Financial Issues - The direct cause of Chai Xiu's removal is linked to a long-standing arbitration dispute regarding guarantees for a private equity fund, which he failed to fulfill [5][17]. - Miaokelando reported a significant drop in net profit from 138 million yuan in 2022 to only 6 million yuan in 2023, with a projected decline in 2025 net profit due to the impact of the private equity fund [20][19]. Strategic Direction - The management change is seen as a necessary step for strategic integration under Mengniu's control, with Kuai Yulong's experience expected to enhance resource allocation and business development [1][19]. - Mengniu's resources are anticipated to provide Miaokelando with stable, low-cost raw milk, reducing reliance on imported cheese and improving cost efficiency through joint procurement [24].

2026 年 1 月 26 日 公司研究 利润短期波动，旺季加快备货 ——立高食品（300973.SZ）跟踪点评 要点 事件：立高食品发布 2025 年度业绩预告，公司预计 25 年实现营业总收入 42.6-44.2 亿元，同比增长 11.07%-15.24%，预计归母净利润 3.11-3.31 亿元， 同比增长 16.06%-23.52% ，扣非净利润 3.06-3.26 亿元，同比增长 20.61%-28.49%。按照区间中位数，估计 25Q4 实现总营收 11.95 亿元，同比增 长 6.92%，归母净利润 0.73 亿元，同比增长 12.79%。此外我们近期跟踪公司 经营情况，更新观点如下： 高基数下 25Q4 收入增速放缓，促销/奖励费用影响当期利润。1）短期看，公司 25Q4 收入端同比增速环比放缓，估计与 24Q4 同期基数较高、26 年春节较晚存 在旺季错期等因素有关。为提前抢占市场份额、保证各渠道旺季供应，公司在 25Q4 加快备货节奏，11 月中旬后即开始提前备货，同时采取相关返利促销/奖 励方案，以提高销售团队和经销商客户积极性。全年来看，公司 25 年收入实现 双位数以上增长，其中核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a decrease of 78.39% to 81.99% compared to the previous year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and a decrease in the proportion of high-margin products [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 36.26 million to 43.52 million yuan [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased prices of key raw materials, leading to higher production costs and a decrease in overall gross and net profit margins [1] Group 2: Raw Material Costs - Key raw materials include palm oil, soybean oil, coconut oil, and natural cream, all of which have seen significant price increases [1] - Palm oil prices have shown notable fluctuations, while coconut oil prices have reached historical highs, contributing to cost pressures [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The company faces intensified industry competition, which has resulted in product price increases lagging behind raw material cost hikes, further pressuring profit levels [1] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to monitor raw material price trends and adjust procurement strategies dynamically to mitigate cost impacts [2] - Efforts will be made to enhance operational efficiency through process optimization, automation, and supply chain management [2] - The company aims to drive revenue growth through a dual approach of market expansion and product innovation, focusing on retail and emerging channels [2] - Product offerings will be diversified to meet various market demands, with an emphasis on upgrading to clean label and high-end products [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Lihigh Food has seen a stock price increase of 5.17%, reaching 45.16 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.647 billion CNY [1] - Lihigh Food, established on May 11, 2000, and listed on April 15, 2021, specializes in the research, production, and sales of baking food ingredients and frozen baked goods [1] - The main revenue composition of Lihigh Food includes frozen baked goods at 54.35%, cream at 26.94%, other products at 7.85%, sauces at 6.85%, and fruit products at 4.02% [1] Group 2 - According to data, a fund under ICBC Credit Suisse has Lihigh Food as one of its top ten holdings, with an increase of 26,000 shares in the third quarter, totaling 90,000 shares, which represents 3.59% of the fund's net value [2] - The ICBC Food and Beverage Mixed A Fund (013289) has a current scale of 57.2543 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 1.92% [2] - The fund manager, Zhang Weisheng, has been in position for 8 years and 87 days, with the best fund return during his tenure being 115.93% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the operational strategies and future outlook of the company, particularly in terms of capacity utilization and cost management [1][2] Group 2 - The company reported that since November of the previous year, it has gradually entered a peak season for stocking, with plans to complete capacity expansion based on anticipated order growth, but not exceeding one year in advance [1] - The joint venture with Feihe is aimed at developing domestically sourced, deep-processed raw materials, with a focus on utilizing by-products from Feihe's production processes, which are essential for the company's cream and baked dairy product business [1] - The company expects to see a significant reduction in sales and management expense ratios in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year, driven by scale effects from sales growth and improved logistics efficiency [2] - The company plans to reduce the number of external warehouses from over thirty to a dozen by mid-2025, which is expected to enhance inventory turnover efficiency and lower expense ratios [2] - The completion of centralized procurement at the headquarters by mid-2025 is anticipated to yield cost reduction effects that will be gradually realized [2]