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美股12月首个交易日收跌,市场仍看好头部AI股前途
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-12-02 13:53
Core Viewpoint - Analysts believe that some downside risks for large U.S. tech stocks have diminished, but concerns about a "bubble" driven by the AI boom still persist [1][4]. Market Performance - On December 1, U.S. stock markets continued to decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% to 6812.63 points, the Dow Jones down 0.9% to 47289 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.4% to 23275 points, extending the downward trend from November [3]. - The S&P 500 recorded a slight gain of 0.1% in November, while the Dow Jones rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.6%, ending a seven-month streak of gains [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investors remain concerned about the concentration of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks within the S&P 500, fearing that declines in these stocks could drag down the entire index [3][4]. - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF fell 1.8% in November and dropped another 0.1% on December 1 [3]. Volatility and Market Outlook - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the "fear index," rose over 5% to around 17.2, still below its long-term average of 20, indicating that overall market sentiment has not shifted to extreme fear [4]. - Recent market fluctuations are seen as short-term turbulence rather than a significant trend change, with expectations of potential support for the stock market from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. AI Sector Insights - The AI sector remains a focal point, with analysts maintaining a constructive view and suggesting that investors take advantage of market pullbacks to reallocate towards more attractive valuation sectors, such as financials, utilities, and industrials [4]. - Alphabet's stock significantly contributed to the S&P 500's performance in November, driven by renewed market expectations regarding Google's AI advancements [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - The S&P 500 is up approximately 16% year-to-date, with the "Magnificent Seven" contributing over half of this gain [6]. - Notably, Nvidia's performance negatively impacted the S&P 500 in November, with the index's gain being 0.4% if Nvidia's performance were excluded [8]. - Approximately 200 stocks within the S&P 500 have declined, with notable underperformers including Fiserv, Trade Desk, Chipotle, Dow, and Constellation Brands, averaging a 50% drop year-to-date [8]. Investment Strategies - Many investors are seeking undervalued opportunities, with Wall Street analysts rating Trade Desk, Chipotle, and Constellation Brands above average, despite some expected declines in earnings for Trade Desk and Constellation Brands in 2025 [9].