今天的量估计比昨天还小，缩量的趋势早已经铁板钉钉。凸形反转时，不用去猜多少量算地量，地量时交易出来的，或许时1.5万亿，或许是1.2万亿，谁 知道呢，猜没有任何意义。 为何会缩量盘旋，无非是持币者不愿意进场，持筹者觉得还可以再看看，其实这是另一种分歧，在不买和不卖之间分歧（放量是在买和卖之间分歧）。但 市场的温度终究取决于买盘，当添柴的人越来越少时，平衡迟早会倾斜。 平均股价指数越来越像头肩顶了，而且右肩低于左肩。当然，这只是形的表面，其内在的本质要看核心领涨股的演变。无论是米讷维尼、瑞恩还是欧奈 尔，甚至更早的利弗莫尔，趋势投机一脉相承，无不把核心领涨股作为观察市场是否见顶的核心指标。 领涨股被遗弃后，多半会有一场腥风血雨，新的王者往往要在大战之后的废墟中诞生。 最近公用事业股暖起，其实这也是市场趋向寡淡的征兆之一。 上证指数之所以坚挺，是因为银行、保险、公用事业股挺着，你要了解这个本质，只当市场不行的时候它们才会暖起。 微盘股指数之所以坚挺，是因为微盘股指数一直坚挺，有坚实的传统游资和量化私募活动基础，尤其当机构淡出之后，这部分反而会更加活跃。 要有充分的思想准备，即便上证指数回撤幅度不大，长时间的摩擦也 ...

Group 1 - Short-term sentiment remains active, while mid-term sentiment is diverging; a significant opportunity will arise when short to mid-term sentiment reaches a freezing point, which has not yet occurred [1] - The leading index, the ChiNext Index, appears to have reversed and established a new trend, with trading volume gradually shrinking; the short-term average volume has been below the mid-term average for a month [2] - One of the leading stocks, Victory Technology, has broken below the 50-day moving average and is about to undergo a convex reversal [3] Group 2 - The strength of the banking, insurance, and securities sectors is too weak, remaining under pressure from the 50-day moving average, making sustained upward movement unlikely [3] - The innovative drug sector is also under convex pressure, with occasional rebounds expected to be difficult to sustain [3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector shows a structured expansion in trading volume, with active accumulation at the bottom; the Relative Strength Ratio (RSR) has turned positive, indicating it is worth following [3]