个人比较倾向于双底，而且会接近200日成交加权均线。但第一种可能兑现的话，也会采取相应对策。 关于技术指标有没有用的问题，首先它只是某一方面的统计特性，提供相对客观的参考依据，但无法替代系统性的建构和分析。前些天讨论概率和决策信 念时，提到过频率主义和贝叶斯主义，大多数技术指标来自于归纳和统计法，属于频率主义，但显然市场并非简单机械的频率主义。 关于技术分析，很多人是误解的，狭隘地归结为看图作业。实际上，凡是涉及到数理逻辑的，包括图形几何、加减乘除以及函数方程，都需要数据支撑， 皆为技术分析，而量化和AI不过是技术分析的高级形式。所以，技术分析早就无处不在，更没必要厚此薄彼，知道一种方法有其所擅长即可。 这几天劈里啪啦各种题材消息，沾花惹草，局部反弹比较热闹，但真正的趋势投机者不会在这个位置出手。 市场指数50日均线的凸形反压一定会起作用，要看它们在反压之下到底怎么走，情绪指标是否再次冰点粘合，指数会不会创新低，如果创新低会不会在60 分钟级别发生动量底背离。当所有这些信号次第发生或不发生时，确定性就会加强。 还有，下一轮的主线是谁，虽然显露了一些眉目，但仍然不能拍板。 如上图，假如我们把当前的位置C和之前的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of stock market patterns, particularly in the context of PCB (Printed Circuit Board) stocks, and highlights the importance of recognizing leading stocks and pivot points for investment decisions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Signals - The PCB market trend can be initially sensed through the performance of two drilling equipment stocks, with a pivotal signal emerging last Monday, followed by collective movement on Tuesday [1]. - Leading stocks exhibit clear trajectories and signals, which aids in decision-making and reduces cognitive load for investors [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Insights from Livermore - Livermore's trading philosophy emphasizes the recurrence of certain patterns, particularly the phenomenon of volume reversal following extreme low volume, which often coincides with the breakout of minimum resistance levels [5]. - Despite his lack of formal education, Livermore developed a day trading model based on price records, achieving significant early success, but faced challenges on Wall Street due to delays in price quotes [5]. - Livermore's eventual failures were attributed to ignoring technical analysis and succumbing to narrative-driven decisions, leading to significant financial losses [6]. Group 3: Personal Struggles and Legacy - Livermore's financial downfall was compounded by personal issues, including extravagant spending and emotional turmoil, which ultimately affected his trading decisions and risk management [6]. - His suicide is framed as a choice of a strong individual rather than a sign of weakness, drawing parallels to other notable figures who faced existential crises [7]. - Despite his struggles, Livermore left behind a considerable amount of cash and assets, indicating that his trading career had its successes [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant reduction in trading volume, indicating a lack of conviction among investors, with a divergence between those holding cash and those holding stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current trading volume is estimated to be smaller than yesterday, with a trend of decreasing volume firmly established [1] - The market's temperature is ultimately determined by buying activity, and as the number of buyers decreases, the balance will inevitably tilt [1] - The average stock price index resembles a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder lower than the left, suggesting potential market weakness [1] Group 2: Leading Stocks and Market Sentiment - Core leading stocks are essential indicators for assessing whether the market has reached its peak, as seen in historical trends from figures like Livermore and O'Neil [1] - The abandonment of leading stocks often precedes significant market downturns, with new leaders emerging from the aftermath of market turmoil [1] Group 3: Sector Performance - The recent strength in utility stocks signals a sign of market fatigue, as these stocks typically perform well when the overall market is struggling [1] - The resilience of the Shanghai Composite Index is attributed to the support from banks, insurance, and utility stocks, which tend to rally during market downturns [1] Group 4: Micro-cap Stocks - The stability of the micro-cap stock index is due to the active participation of traditional retail investors and quantitative private equity, especially when institutional investors withdraw [1] - There is a need for preparedness, as prolonged market friction could lead to significant declines in individual stocks, even if the Shanghai Composite Index does not experience substantial pullbacks [1]

Core Insights - The author has decided to stop updating the public account, believing that the essential content has already been shared and further updates may become a burden for readers [1] - The author emphasizes that advanced trading techniques are difficult to master and not suitable for everyone, suggesting that simpler methods should be pursued instead [1] - The author has shared a momentum trading system and various signals that, if understood deeply, can lead to significant trading success [1] - The author notes that the ability to profit depends on market conditions rather than solely on technical skills, highlighting the importance of seizing opportunities when they arise [1] - The author expresses frustration with those who focus on minor technical details rather than understanding the broader concepts shared [1] - The author encourages constructive criticism but expects it to be backed by substantial knowledge and expertise [1] Market Sentiment - The market is described as both harsh and warm, with a hopeful message for readers to improve and achieve financial success [2] - The author indicates a possibility of resuming updates in the future if necessary, wishing readers prosperity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of the market, particularly the rebound of the ChiNext and STAR Market indices, indicating a robust bull market that is unusual compared to previous trends [1]. Market Performance - The average stock price index briefly fell below the TR holding line but showed a strong recovery in the afternoon, suggesting a significant rebound [1]. - The afternoon rebound mirrored the previous day's decline, indicating a notable recovery strength [1]. Technical Analysis - The 200-day moving average serves as a critical boundary, with the index touching this level for the third time since early June, leading to increased volatility and profit-taking [2]. - The market is currently experiencing a natural increase in divergence due to the rise in profit-taking [2]. Leading Sectors - The leading sectors include optical connections, semiconductors, PCB, and rare earths, highlighting the importance of focusing on main lines during a bull market [4]. - The article warns against deviating from main lines in stock selection, emphasizing the need for a strong belief in investment models to maintain a positive mindset [4]. Investment Models - The article discusses the significance of having a model belief system in stock selection, which helps narrow down choices and maintain confidence [4]. - It mentions that the process of developing a model belief is lengthy and involves reflection and perseverance [4]. Stock Signals - New signals have emerged for stocks such as Yingwei and Dongxin, indicating potential investment opportunities [10]. - The article notes that the model used for stock selection has a limited capacity, averaging about one stock per day over the past two months, but has shown a good success rate [12].