1月19日，进入2026年1月以来，加密货币市场展现出显著的机构转向迹象。EasyMarkets易信认为，本 月美国现货比特币 ETF 录得的12亿美元净流入，不仅成功扭转了去年底的资金颓势，更标志着市场底 层逻辑的深刻变化——大资金正在从被动的套利防御转向主动的方向性做多。 根据 SoSoValue 的监测统计，这12亿美元的增量资金正值市场结构调整期。相关数据表示，此前风靡一 时的"期现套利"策略因基差收窄至5.5%左右而导致利润空间几乎归零。EasyMarkets易信表示，当套利 交易的隐含收益无法覆盖融资与执行成本时，机构投资者并没有选择离场，而是将其头寸转化为对未来 长期价格上涨的直接押注。这种从"无风险套利"向"趋势投机"的迁移，显著增强了当前价位的支撑力 度。 与此同时，市场波动率的持续下降为长期资本提供了理想的入场窗口。分析显示，比特币30天隐含波动 率已降至40%的季度低点。EasyMarkets易信认为，在贵金属如金、银价格经历了一轮上扬后，机构投 资者往往会沿着风险曲线寻找尚未启动的替代资产，比特币当前的低波动状态恰好符合"粘性资金"的配 1月19日，进入2026年1月以来，加密货币市场 ...

Core Concepts - The article discusses various influential books that provide insights into investment strategies, trading systems, and psychological aspects of trading, emphasizing the importance of understanding complex theories and behavioral economics in the financial markets [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Group 1: Fundamental Thinking - "Complex" by Michele Waldrop introduces complex theory in economics, highlighting the evolution of thought among academic elites and its implications for understanding stock markets through multi-dimensional thinking [1] - "Nudge" by Richard Thaler explores the intersection of economics and psychology, revealing human biases and impulsive behaviors that challenge traditional economic assumptions, offering valuable insights for investment and life [1] - "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu provides strategic principles applicable to stock trading, such as cautious engagement and psychological tactics, which can enhance trading decisions [1] Group 2: Trading Systems - "Market Wizards" by Stan Weinstein outlines a comprehensive trend trading system, emphasizing the importance of understanding market phases and relative strength, making it an excellent entry point for traders [2] - "Stock Market Wizards" by Mark Minervini offers a refined trading system with practical insights, building upon Weinstein's work and providing a deeper understanding of trend speculation [2] - "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William O'Neil presents the CANSLIM system, which encapsulates the essence of trend speculation and has proven effective for many of O'Neil's disciples [3] Group 3: Technical Tactics - "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets" by John Murphy serves as a comprehensive guide to technical analysis, combining practical application with authoritative insights, making it a revered resource in the field [4] - "The Chen Theory" by Chen Zhongshuo integrates mathematical logic with market dynamics, offering a unique perspective on technical analysis that stands out among conventional literature [4] - "The Wyckoff Method" by Meng Hongtao simplifies the complex Wyckoff theory, focusing on the essence of price-volume analysis and its relevance to contemporary behavioral economics [5] Group 4: Psychological Aspects - "The Wall Street Ghost" emphasizes the importance of psychological preparedness and decisiveness in trading, highlighting the mental aspects that can influence trading success [7] - "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Jesse Livermore provides insights into the psychological challenges faced by traders, focusing on mindset and behavior in the face of market volatility [7] Group 5: Trading History and Personalities - "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager documents interviews with successful traders, offering valuable lessons and insights into their strategies and mindsets, beneficial for aspiring traders [8] - "The New Market Wizards" continues the exploration of trading success stories, providing inspiration and practical wisdom for future market participants [8]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a local rebound, but true trend speculators are cautious about entering positions at this time due to the pressure from the 50-day moving average [1] - The next main theme in the market is still uncertain, although some clues have emerged [2] - There are two potential scenarios for the market: one is a gradual consolidation followed by an upward breakout, which would require a significant increase in trading volume to confirm; the other is a continued pullback approaching or breaking previous lows, potentially forming a double bottom [3] Group 2 - Technical indicators are statistical characteristics that provide objective reference points but cannot replace systematic construction and analysis; many misunderstand technical analysis as merely chart reading [3] - Different technical analysis methods have their strengths, such as volume-price patterns excelling in emotional and behavioral logic reasoning, while the RSI indicator is better at quantifying momentum [4] - A robust trading system requires a comprehensive approach, selecting the best methods for each aspect and understanding the fundamental principles behind them [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of stock market patterns, particularly in the context of PCB (Printed Circuit Board) stocks, and highlights the importance of recognizing leading stocks and pivot points for investment decisions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Signals - The PCB market trend can be initially sensed through the performance of two drilling equipment stocks, with a pivotal signal emerging last Monday, followed by collective movement on Tuesday [1]. - Leading stocks exhibit clear trajectories and signals, which aids in decision-making and reduces cognitive load for investors [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Insights from Livermore - Livermore's trading philosophy emphasizes the recurrence of certain patterns, particularly the phenomenon of volume reversal following extreme low volume, which often coincides with the breakout of minimum resistance levels [5]. - Despite his lack of formal education, Livermore developed a day trading model based on price records, achieving significant early success, but faced challenges on Wall Street due to delays in price quotes [5]. - Livermore's eventual failures were attributed to ignoring technical analysis and succumbing to narrative-driven decisions, leading to significant financial losses [6]. Group 3: Personal Struggles and Legacy - Livermore's financial downfall was compounded by personal issues, including extravagant spending and emotional turmoil, which ultimately affected his trading decisions and risk management [6]. - His suicide is framed as a choice of a strong individual rather than a sign of weakness, drawing parallels to other notable figures who faced existential crises [7]. - Despite his struggles, Livermore left behind a considerable amount of cash and assets, indicating that his trading career had its successes [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant reduction in trading volume, indicating a lack of conviction among investors, with a divergence between those holding cash and those holding stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current trading volume is estimated to be smaller than yesterday, with a trend of decreasing volume firmly established [1] - The market's temperature is ultimately determined by buying activity, and as the number of buyers decreases, the balance will inevitably tilt [1] - The average stock price index resembles a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder lower than the left, suggesting potential market weakness [1] Group 2: Leading Stocks and Market Sentiment - Core leading stocks are essential indicators for assessing whether the market has reached its peak, as seen in historical trends from figures like Livermore and O'Neil [1] - The abandonment of leading stocks often precedes significant market downturns, with new leaders emerging from the aftermath of market turmoil [1] Group 3: Sector Performance - The recent strength in utility stocks signals a sign of market fatigue, as these stocks typically perform well when the overall market is struggling [1] - The resilience of the Shanghai Composite Index is attributed to the support from banks, insurance, and utility stocks, which tend to rally during market downturns [1] Group 4: Micro-cap Stocks - The stability of the micro-cap stock index is due to the active participation of traditional retail investors and quantitative private equity, especially when institutional investors withdraw [1] - There is a need for preparedness, as prolonged market friction could lead to significant declines in individual stocks, even if the Shanghai Composite Index does not experience substantial pullbacks [1]

Core Insights - The author has decided to stop updating the public account, believing that the essential content has already been shared and further updates may become a burden for readers [1] - The author emphasizes that advanced trading techniques are difficult to master and not suitable for everyone, suggesting that simpler methods should be pursued instead [1] - The author has shared a momentum trading system and various signals that, if understood deeply, can lead to significant trading success [1] - The author notes that the ability to profit depends on market conditions rather than solely on technical skills, highlighting the importance of seizing opportunities when they arise [1] - The author expresses frustration with those who focus on minor technical details rather than understanding the broader concepts shared [1] - The author encourages constructive criticism but expects it to be backed by substantial knowledge and expertise [1] Market Sentiment - The market is described as both harsh and warm, with a hopeful message for readers to improve and achieve financial success [2] - The author indicates a possibility of resuming updates in the future if necessary, wishing readers prosperity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of the market, particularly the rebound of the ChiNext and STAR Market indices, indicating a robust bull market that is unusual compared to previous trends [1]. Market Performance - The average stock price index briefly fell below the TR holding line but showed a strong recovery in the afternoon, suggesting a significant rebound [1]. - The afternoon rebound mirrored the previous day's decline, indicating a notable recovery strength [1]. Technical Analysis - The 200-day moving average serves as a critical boundary, with the index touching this level for the third time since early June, leading to increased volatility and profit-taking [2]. - The market is currently experiencing a natural increase in divergence due to the rise in profit-taking [2]. Leading Sectors - The leading sectors include optical connections, semiconductors, PCB, and rare earths, highlighting the importance of focusing on main lines during a bull market [4]. - The article warns against deviating from main lines in stock selection, emphasizing the need for a strong belief in investment models to maintain a positive mindset [4]. Investment Models - The article discusses the significance of having a model belief system in stock selection, which helps narrow down choices and maintain confidence [4]. - It mentions that the process of developing a model belief is lengthy and involves reflection and perseverance [4]. Stock Signals - New signals have emerged for stocks such as Yingwei and Dongxin, indicating potential investment opportunities [10]. - The article notes that the model used for stock selection has a limited capacity, averaging about one stock per day over the past two months, but has shown a good success rate [12].