出口周期

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4月金融数据点评:信贷周期重于出口周期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-15 03:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the growth rate of social financing increased due to the low base, mainly contributed by government bonds, while credit performance was sluggish [2][9]. - The negative growth of residents' short - term loans exceeded the seasonal level, and the demand for enterprises' short - term loans was overdrawn in March, with weak performance of medium - and long - term loans under internal and external pressures [3][4]. - Recently, the credit cycle has a greater impact on interest rates than the export cycle, and the export chain is not the main factor disturbing the credit cycle [5][6]. - The interest rate point corresponding to the financing data is around 1.8%, and the credit cycle may reverse at the bottom within the year [7][25]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing and Credit Situation - **Social Financing Growth Driven by Government Bonds**: In April 2025, the stock social financing growth rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%. Government bonds contributed 84% of the new social financing, with an increase of 1.07 trillion yuan year - on - year to 976.2 billion yuan. In contrast, RMB loans in the social financing caliber decreased by 250.5 billion yuan year - on - year to 84.4 billion yuan, hitting a record low for the same period [2][9]. - **Residents' Credit**: In April, residents' sector credit decreased by 5 billion yuan year - on - year to - 521.6 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 50.1 billion yuan year - on - year to - 401.9 billion yuan, a record low for the same period. The potential unemployment pressure increased, which affected residents' short - term loans. Medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, and the sales volume growth rate of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved compared with the same period last year [3][14]. - **Enterprise Credit**: In April, new enterprise credit decreased by 25 billion yuan year - on - year to 61 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 7 billion yuan year - on - year to - 48 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans decreased by 16 billion yuan year - on - year to 25 billion yuan. The negative growth of short - term loans exceeded the seasonal level, possibly due to the over - borrowing in March. The medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate continued to decline by 0.18 percentage points to 8.8% [4][18]. 3.2 Impact of Credit and Export Cycles on Interest Rates - **Greater Impact of Credit Cycle on Interest Rates**: Since 2024, the new export order index has performed well, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield has gradually declined. The decline trend of enterprise medium - and long - term loan growth rate is more consistent with the treasury bond trend, indicating that the domestic credit cycle has a greater impact on interest rates than the export cycle [5][19]. - **Limited Impact of Export Chain on Credit**: After detailed calculations, the proportion of credit directly and indirectly related to exports in the overall enterprise credit scale is about 20% in recent years, suggesting that domestic factors are the main forces affecting credit [6][24]. 3.3 Interest Rate and Credit Outlook - **Equilibrium Interest Rate Point**: As of April, the growth rate of the stock social financing excluding government bonds was 6.02%, slightly up 0.1 percentage point from March, corresponding to an interest rate point of 1.82%. The suspension of tariff shocks may have two - sided effects, and the credit cycle may reverse at the bottom within the year [7][25].