低基数下社融增速上行，但主要由政府债券贡献 去年同期新增政府债券规模为-937 亿，拖累当时社融也罕见负增 658 亿。2025 年政府债券发行规模及进度明显优于 去年同期，带动 2025 年 4 月社融同比多增 1.23 万亿至 1.16 万亿，其中政府债贡献了 84%的新增社融。相比之下，信 贷表现较为低迷，社融口径人民币贷款创历史同期新低，金融机构口径下人民币信贷也为 2005 年以来同期新低。 预期冲击显现，居民短贷超季节性负增 4 月居民部门信贷同比多减 50 亿至-5216 亿，新增规模为历史同期新低。其中短期贷款同比多减 501 亿至-4019 亿、 也创下历史同期新低。短贷在季初通常规律性降低，但本次短贷负增明显高于历史同期（过去五年同期新增短贷均值 为-797 亿）。事实上，4 月居民部门的压力从高频指标中已经有所体现，比如，结合"互联网搜索指数:失业金领取条 件"看，4 月此指标 6MMA 同比增速快速上行 38 个百分点，意味着潜在失业压力增加，居民部门的就业、收入、消费 情况可能均有所转弱，预期及信心不足进而对居民短期贷款产生负向拖累、拉低季初短贷规模。 3 月冲量透支企业短贷需求，内 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share was $0.39, corresponding to a return on equity of 10.4% [6] - Adjusted net income per share was $0.30, with a return on equity of 8%, including $0.09 per share of adjusted net realized and unrealized losses [6][25] - Net asset value (NAV) per share decreased by $0.09 to $15.04, primarily due to net unrealized and realized losses [21][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross originations for the quarter were $298.9 million, with $159.5 million funded at close, reflecting a conservative approach to new investments [14] - The investment income yield remained robust at 10.8%, despite a sequential decline of about 40 basis points [12][29] - The weighted average spread on new originations increased by 30 basis points compared to previous quarters [16][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a significant deceleration in deal activity, contrary to expectations of a strong M&A environment [54] - Nonaccrual investments increased slightly to 70 basis points of total investments at fair value, with the number of nonaccrual investments remaining at nine [17][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The investment strategy focuses on providing first lien senior secured loans to resilient middle market companies backed by strong private equity sponsors [3][39] - The company aims to navigate uncertainty by selectively looking for new loans and focusing on early detection and intervention for underperforming borrowers [9][10] - The company believes its strategy positions it well against potential tariff impacts, as most borrowers are U.S.-centric businesses [39][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a challenging macro environment marked by policy uncertainty and decreased consumer confidence [5][9] - The company remains cautious about new investment activity due to significant competition and unattractive deal conditions [54] - Management emphasized the importance of preparing for multiple scenarios and maintaining a resilient strategy [38][41] Other Important Information - Total distributions paid in the quarter were $0.39 per share, representing an annualized dividend yield of 10.3% [20] - The company has a strong liquidity position with approximately $1.2 billion available from unrestricted cash and undrawn commitments [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about the base payout going forward? - Management feels confident about the current dividend level despite spread and base rate compression, citing potential near-term levers to enhance earnings [46][47][51] Question: Are repayments trending low, and what is the focus on defending names? - Management observed a significant deceleration in deal activity and noted that private equity firms are holding longer in hopes of a better selling environment [54][56] Question: Should we expect a hit next quarter from the identified tariff risk names? - Management believes the situation is manageable and is actively working with borrowers to assess potential impacts [58][60] Question: What is the outlook for smaller companies in the portfolio? - Management indicated a focus on a broad range of EBITDA levels, with a preference for the core middle market where competitive dynamics are favorable [64][66] Question: Is there any thematic underpinning to the nonaccruals this quarter? - Management stated that the increase in nonaccruals was not influenced by tariffs and reflects general credit stress in the market [70]

在关税战开始的那段时间很多人说A股不走牛了。 但其实不管是过去一段时间还是现在，A股一直是牛市。 为什么大家没有看出来呢？今天我就给大家仔细讲讲。 文末还有超实用的股市数据干货，可别错过！ 一，依旧是牛市 在周期理论的信贷周期框架下，当下种种迹象表明我们正处于牛市进程中。 信贷周期通常历经不同阶段，从宽货币+紧信用，到宽货币+宽信用，再到紧货币+宽信用，最后是紧货币+紧信用。 我们当下大概率处在紧货币+宽信用周期。 债市已历经3年牛市，意味着央妈推行宽货币达3年之久，却因美联储加息与国内地产风险，宽信用进程受阻。 直至美联储降息、房地产风险缓解，央妈才开启宽信用周期，随即爆发了924的估值修复行情，此后呈现股债双牛，即宽货币+宽信用的 态势。 步入2025年后，央妈收缩货币，债市下跌，股市却震荡上行，这正是紧货币+宽信用周期中股市孕育业绩驱动行情的表现。 二，牛市的证据 尽管短期内不会降准降息，甚至有加息操作，目的却是打破债市资金池，向经济注入流动性。 诸如消费贷利率降低、开设低利率的金融机构互换便利和上市企业股票回购再贷款、给予科技企业低利率再贷款以及集中降低存量房贷 利率等，皆是宽信用的举措。 再者，同业 ...