Core Viewpoint - The weakening support of real estate for the economy in recent years and the uncertainty of exports as a future factor, especially for major economic provinces, necessitates a focus on the economic uncertainty factors related to real estate and exports, as well as the corresponding policy countermeasures [2][12]. Group 1: Economic Uncertainty Factors - The economic uncertainty factor is constructed by merging real estate and export factors, with specific indicators measuring the reliance of local economies and finances on these sectors [12][15]. - The correlation coefficients for economic uncertainty factors and policy factors with GDP national share are 0.70 and 0.72, indicating that larger provinces face greater economic uncertainty and have larger policy factors [3][15]. - Provinces are categorized into three groups based on their economic uncertainty and policy factors: 1. Economic uncertainty factor > Policy factor (14 provinces, 48% of national GDP share) 2. Economic uncertainty factor < Policy factor (16 provinces, 48% of national GDP share) 3. Economic uncertainty factor ≈ Policy factor (1 province, Beijing) [3][16]. Group 2: Real Estate Factor - The real estate industry chain's contribution to GDP and land finance dependency are key indicators, with major economic provinces showing higher reliance [5][21]. - In 2024, the real estate industry chain's GDP contribution for major provinces is 14.1%, compared to the national average of 13.5%, indicating a higher concentration in major provinces [5][19]. - Land finance dependency for major provinces is 41%, significantly higher than the national average of 24.3%, with provinces like Jiangsu and Sichuan exceeding 40% [21][23]. Group 3: Export Factor - The export factor is more pronounced in eastern provinces, with major provinces accounting for 65% of national exports while only representing 44% of national GDP [6][26]. - The export-to-GDP ratio for eastern provinces is significantly higher than the national average, with Zhejiang at 43.3% and Guangdong at 41.6% [6][27]. - Some central and western provinces also show notable export dependencies, particularly in exports to the U.S., with Shanxi at 27.9% and Henan at 22.1% [7][29]. Group 4: Policy Factor - The policy factor is linked to economic strength, with major provinces receiving lower shares of fiscal resources compared to their GDP contributions [8][34]. - In 2024, the total fiscal resources for major provinces amount to 5.62 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.3% of the national total, which is lower than their GDP share of 44.4% [9][38]. - Financial resources for major provinces are substantial but have seen a decline in national share, dropping from 53% in 2022 to 48% in 2024 [40][42].