中国经济以2025年上半年5.3%的GDP增长率稳健前行，展现出强劲韧性。然而，三季度经济数据显现明显放缓迹象：社会消费品零售总额增速回落，固 定资产投资增速进一步下降，叠加房地产持续下行，以及产业逆全球化浪潮，明年稳增长压力将进一步加大。在此背景下，提振消费已成为稳增长的关键 一环。 导 语 近期笔者受邀参加深圳香蜜湖宏观经济论坛，与中国证监会原主席肖钢、上海市人民政府原常务副市长屠光绍、中央财经委员会办公室原副主任尹艳林、 中国建设银行原党委书记、董事长王洪章等金融界与学术界重量级人士共聚一堂。本次论坛上，笔者认为，提振消费需从以下几方面入手：一是扩大以旧 换新支持品类；二是加大对服务消费的支持力度；三是鼓励中高端消费；四是完善社会保障体系；五是优化收入分配结构。这些举措旨在释放内需活力， 推动经济向消费驱动型转型。详情请参阅以下发言实录！ 非常荣幸参加本次研讨会。近期我前往了新加坡、美国以及欧洲部分国家，发现欧洲经济增长乏力，中国、美国以及新加坡经济保持增长态势。上半年国 内经济稳步增长，但是三季度部分核心数据有所放缓，明年经济面临一定下行压力。我认为经济学家有使命唱响中国经济光明论，这里我就如何提振消 ...

自 2025 年初以来，市场对美国财政可持续性的关注度显著提升。5 月 16 日， 国际信用评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 3 级下调至 21 级，这与其他两 大评级机构保持一致。5 月 22 日，美国 20 年期国债拍卖遇冷，标的利率突破 5%的关键点位，引发了股市、债市和汇市的波动。这一系列事件表明，美国财 政不可持续性正在深刻动摇市场对美债资产的信心，并显著加剧全球资产价格 波动。 截至 2024 年底，美国公众持有国债总额接近 30 万亿美元，占 GDP 比 重达到 98%，处于历史次高水平。美国联邦支出主要由国防支出、非国防自由 裁量支出、强制性支出以及净利息支出构成。其中，强制性支出包括社会保障、 中长期来看，美国存在技术违约或供给冲击风险，但总体有限，历史上 美国多次就提高或暂停法定限额展开政治博弈，最终均达成协议，通过 调节发行节奏和结构优化，可以避免单次大量美债供给冲击。 当前美国财政问题的主要特征是远虑多于近忧，债务不可持续性及政策 高度不确定性正在动摇市场对美债资产的信任，根本原因在于赤字难以 有效缓解导致的债务规模失控，减支计划效果显著低于预期。 提高关税难以有效解决美国财政赤字问题 ...

【文/远瞳】 一、雅加达的分歧：市场与民生的撕裂 在印尼，财政政策的走向始终牵动着两类群体的神经：一端是紧盯汇率与股指的国际投资者、金融从业 者，另一端是关心燃油价格、粮食补贴的普通民众。这种分歧在本次财政部长人事变动中被推向极致 ——当"财政纪律"的践行者到"民生优先"的推动者的权力交接，本质上是印尼在"稳定"与"公平"之间做 出的艰难抉择。 正因如此，财政部长的人事调整，不仅仅是技术性的岗位更替，而是在打破一个脆弱平衡。穆利亚尼 的"守纪律"模式，让国际资本放心，却让不少基层觉得"活不下去"；新任财政部长普尔巴亚的"铁腕治 税"与"民生优先"，则是在尝试重构这一平衡。 某种意义上，这已不仅是印尼财政政策的选择，而是一场关乎国运的试验：印尼能否在不完全依赖西方 主导的财政规则下，探索出一条既能稳住大盘、又能让老百姓真正受益的自主发展之路？ 二、穆利亚尼的遗产：铁腕纪律与未解的民生困局 斯里·穆利亚尼在卸下财政部长职务，并与财政部的国家公务员告别后落下眼泪。视频截图 雅加达证券交易所的交易员们，对"财政铁娘子"穆利亚尼的名字并不陌生。在他们眼中，这个曾任职世 界银行的女性，是印尼经济的"定海神针"。2008年 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global fiscal landscape, particularly focusing on developed economies such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the European Union. Core Insights and Arguments - Political turbulence in multiple countries is closely linked to fiscal policies, with governments facing pressure to adjust their fiscal strategies due to declining public support [1][3] - The long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates in developed economies have risen significantly, indicating market pricing for potential fiscal expansion [1][4] - A collective fiscal expansion across multiple economies is anticipated in 2026, with significant stimulus measures expected from the US, Japan, Germany, and the EU [1][6] - The trend of de-globalization is increasing inflationary pressures and limiting monetary easing, making large-scale fiscal expansion a necessary response to economic downturns [1][7] - Political polarization poses challenges to timely implementation of fiscal policies, potentially destabilizing the bond market and reducing the effectiveness of fiscal expansion [1][8][9] - Structural issues in developed economies, such as Japan's aging population and Europe's investment shortfalls, limit the effectiveness of fiscal policies [1][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The US faces rapidly rising interest expenditures, which could strain fiscal sustainability, while Europe and Japan are constrained by mandatory social security expenditures [2][11] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus may be compromised by political polarization and the inability to convert fiscal measures into effective economic growth [1][8] - Gold is highlighted as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising inflation concerns and fiscal expansion, with industrial metals also presenting potential investment opportunities in the near future [1][12]

Group 1 - The Guangxi Finance Department is enhancing financial support for the private economy by utilizing various policy tools such as fiscal interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and guiding funds to direct more financial resources towards the private sector [1][2] - In 2024, Guangxi plans to allocate 3.05 billion RMB in interest subsidies, guiding financial institutions to provide 231.734 billion RMB in loans under the "Guihui Loan" program, with 182.428 billion RMB specifically for private enterprises, benefiting 102,500 businesses and reducing their financing costs by 2.307 billion RMB [1] - The "Guangxi Financial Support for Enterprises Three-Year Action Plan (2025-2027)" has been introduced, focusing on supporting private enterprises through the creation of "Inclusive Business Loans" [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi Finance Department is guiding the establishment of market-oriented investment funds, including a minimum 10 billion RMB artificial intelligence industry fund, to invest in technology-driven private enterprises and facilitate their transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [2] - For cross-border trade, enterprises engaging in over 500 million RMB in cross-border RMB trade settlement will receive a reward of 0.1% of the settlement amount, with a maximum annual reward of 1 million RMB per enterprise, aiding private enterprises in expanding into international markets [2] - The Guangxi Finance Department plans to continue optimizing fiscal policy supply and enhancing the collaboration of financial policy tools to ensure that policy benefits reach private economic entities accurately [2]

Economic Fundamentals - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening internal growth, with Private Domestic Final Sales (PDFP) growing only 1.2%, the lowest since early 2023[3] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the smallest gain since October of the previous year[21] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index at 2.8%, indicating inflationary pressures remain but are limited[25] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The recently passed "Inflation Reduction Act" (OBBBA) is projected to increase borrowing by $4.1 trillion by 2034, with $5.9 trillion in tax cuts and spending increases contributing to the deficit[34] - The U.S. Treasury expects net borrowing to reach $1.007 trillion from July to September, significantly higher than previous estimates[39] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with no immediate plans for rate cuts despite concerns over labor market weakness[42] Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 9% since the beginning of the year, reflecting market concerns over trade tensions and fiscal sustainability[4] - U.S. equities may face short-term adjustments due to rising uncertainty and high valuations, but sectors like AI infrastructure and semiconductors are expected to offer medium-term opportunities[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.2%, with expectations of a trading range between 4.1%-4.5% for the year[4]

Core Viewpoint - Local government fiscal revenue is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year, with potential fluctuations in the third quarter, necessitating close monitoring and timely fiscal policy adjustments [2][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first half of the year, local general public budget revenue increased by 1.6% year-on-year, driven primarily by non-tax revenue growth, indicating a weak recovery [2][3]. - Among 31 provinces, 27 reported revenue growth, with Jilin showing the highest increase at 16.4%, while four provinces, including Shaanxi and Shanxi, experienced declines [3][4]. - The average growth rate of local general public budget expenditure was 2.6%, surpassing revenue growth, as 24 out of 28 provinces maintained expenditure increases to support livelihoods and stabilize the economy [1][3]. Expenditure Summary - Despite overall revenue growth, many provinces face significant fiscal pressure due to rising rigid expenditures, such as debt repayments and social welfare [9][11]. - Local governments are implementing measures to balance budgets, including increasing revenue through legal tax collection and optimizing asset management [10][11]. - The focus remains on ensuring the "three guarantees" (basic livelihood, wages, and operational stability) are met, with many regions prioritizing these expenditures [10][11]. Regional Disparities - There are notable disparities in fiscal performance at the municipal and county levels, with some areas experiencing robust growth while others struggle with fiscal difficulties [6][7]. - For instance, in Fujian, 75.6% of counties reported positive revenue growth, while some regions continue to face challenges due to low real estate tax revenues and land transfer income [6][8]. Future Outlook - The fiscal landscape remains complex, with ongoing pressures expected in the second half of the year, particularly in revenue generation [9][10]. - Local governments are urged to adopt stringent measures to control non-essential expenditures while ensuring essential services are funded adequately [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade rebalancing is occurring globally, with domestic fiscal policy becoming a key driver of economic growth. This shift necessitates effective legal measures and a transparent debt disclosure system to prevent historical debt crises from recurring [2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Rebalancing - The U.S. has imposed high import tariffs on other countries, marking a clear trend that began nearly a decade ago with the abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This trend has been exacerbated by the Trump administration's tariff measures and the Biden administration's industrial subsidies aimed at promoting domestic green industries [3]. - In response to U.S. tariff policies, regions like Europe and China are implementing stronger fiscal stimulus measures to boost domestic demand and reduce reliance on U.S. consumers and financial markets [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Measures in Crisis Response - Germany has amended its constitution to relax strict fiscal rules, launching a €1 trillion investment plan to increase spending in defense, infrastructure, research, digitalization, and climate protection [5]. - China is exploring various options to stimulate long-delayed domestic consumption, requiring structural reforms in social security, financial systems, and gender balance [5]. Group 3: Debt Constraints and Risks - Many governments are facing debt constraints, lacking sufficient resources to meet basic payment obligations and return to inflation targets. Low-income and emerging market countries are particularly at risk of debt crises [7]. - The global supply of dollar-denominated assets is contingent on U.S. fiscal capacity, which is currently under pressure from the debt ceiling crisis and uncertainties surrounding proposed U.S. budget plans [7]. Group 4: Fiscal Transparency and Supervision Mechanisms - Following the last debt crisis, developed countries undertook debt clean-up, while emerging economies engaged in debt restructuring. However, the world is once again facing the risk of a global debt crisis, raising questions about the effectiveness of oversight by institutions like the IMF and World Bank [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is significantly increasing its borrowing forecast for the third quarter of 2023, expecting net borrowing to reach $1.007 trillion, a substantial increase of over 82% from the previous estimate of $554 billion due to the lifting of the debt ceiling [1][3]. Group 1: Borrowing Forecast and Debt Ceiling Impact - The Treasury's borrowing forecast for July to September has been raised by more than $450 billion, reflecting the acceleration of debt issuance following the increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1][3]. - The actual borrowing in the second quarter was only $65 billion, far below the anticipated $514 billion, primarily due to a lower-than-expected cash balance at the end of June [3][4]. - The cash balance at the end of June was reported at $457 billion, significantly lower than the previously assumed $850 billion, leading to a $393 billion shortfall that contributed to the increased borrowing needs [2][3]. Group 2: Cash Management and Future Projections - The Treasury aims to restore its cash balance to $850 billion by the end of September, primarily through the issuance of short-term debt [4][6]. - For the fourth quarter (October to December), the Treasury projects net borrowing of $590 billion, assuming the cash balance will recover to $850 billion [2][4]. - The Treasury's cash management strategy remains stable, with expectations that the debt issuance plan will align with previous quarterly refinancing levels [6]. Group 3: Revenue Changes and Economic Implications - Tariff revenues have increased significantly, with customs duties expected to rise further, although corporate tax revenues are projected to decline, partially offsetting tariff gains [5]. - In June, the U.S. recorded a fiscal surplus of over $27 billion, attributed mainly to customs tariff revenues, marking the first surplus for June since 2017 [5]. - The total tariff revenue for the fiscal year to date has reached $113 billion, an 86% increase year-over-year, setting a record for a single fiscal year [5].

Revenue Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue amounted to 929.15 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% to 226.51 billion yuan[2] - In June, the general public budget revenue showed a monthly year-on-year decline of 0.3%, compared to a previous value of 0.1%[3] Expenditure Insights - Total general public budget expenditure reached 1,412.71 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[2] - Central government expenditure was 199.14 billion yuan, up 9%, while local government expenditure grew by 2.6% to 1,213.57 billion yuan[2] - In June, general public expenditure increased by only 0.4% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since 2019[3][14] Fund Budget Performance - Government fund budget revenue surged by 20.8% in June, primarily driven by a 21.9% increase in land transfer income[4] - Government fund expenditure in June skyrocketed by 79.2%, with land-related expenditures rising to 5.9%[4] - For the first half of the year, the second budget's revenue decreased by 2.4%, while expenditure grew by 30%[4] Overall Fiscal Trends - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate was significantly up at 17.6% in June, compared to 4% previously[5] - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in June, reversing a previous decline of 1.2%[5] - Year-to-date, broad fiscal revenue has decreased by 0.6%, with a completion rate of 47.8%[5]