美国2026财年首月即录得2840亿美元预算赤字，凸显特朗普政府在未来数年大幅削减联邦借贷规模的目 标面临严峻挑战。财政部周二数据显示，经日历差异调整后，10月赤字规模同比收窄29%。在关税收入 再创新高的推动下，当月财政收入增长22%。经调整后，2026财年首月财政支出与去年同期基本持平 ——尽管医疗保险支出大幅跃升，但多个联邦部门支出下降，这部分反映出国会未能在10月1日新财年 开始前通过年度拨款法案的后续影响。随着立法机构于11月12日批准临时支出方案，11月预算报告或将 呈现支出激增态势。数据同时显示，特朗普实施的关税政策持续抑制联邦借贷需求。10月净关税收入达 310亿美元，前三个月均值为290亿美元。 ...

2025.11. 22 本文字数：2131，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 随着一揽子化解地方政府隐性债务举措快速落地，又一个省份将退出债务高风险省份名单。 近日，吉林省财政厅在《中国财政》杂志上公开撰文称，当地风险防控实现历史性突破。截至2025年9 月末，全省存量隐性债务余额下降近90%，融资平台数量压减比例超70%，经国家专班复核评估，已 符合退出债务重点省份条件，化债经验被财政部作为首期专报模板推广示范。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经，这是继内蒙古退出债务重点省份之后，第二个符合退出债 务重点省份条件的地区。这不仅使得当地政府投融资行为政策限制减少，推动当地经济发展，而且也给 其他一些省份化债提供可复制范例，提振各地化债信心，也展示了中央化解地方债务风险的决心与能 力。 此前为了防范地方债务风险，中国将12个省份纳入债务高风险地区名单，政府投资项目受到约束。其 中纳入上述名单中的内蒙古今年已经公开表示当地退出债务高风险地区名单，吉林则是第二个公开表示 符合退出上述名单条件的省份。 今年政府工作报告在部署化债时，明确提出"动态调整债务高风险地区名单，支持打开新的投资空间"。 | ...

据日本共同社19日报道，知情人士称，日本政府计划推出规模超20万亿日元的经济刺激方案，以缓解该国生活成本上升的压力。一直以来，日本首 相高市早苗承诺，将通过积极的财政支出来支撑日本饱受通胀困扰的经济。然而，投资者对其经济政策对日本财政健康的影响表示担忧，导致近期 日元和政府债券遭到抛售。 日本央行总部大楼。视觉中国 资料图 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 18 日 财政支出增速放缓，高基数、年内节奏前置是主因 ——2025 年 1-10 月财政数据解读 核心观点 2025 年 10 月财政支出速度放缓，收入增速保持一定强度，我们认为财政支出增速放 缓较多的原因在于，一方面年内财政支出前置发力后阶段性退坡，另一方面在于去年 同期高基数影响（去年 9 月 26 日政治局会议后，财政支出发力较快形成高基数）。 10 月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 3.2%（前值 2.6%），主要与税收收入加快有关； 10 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增速为-9.8%（前值 3.1%）。10 月第二本账（政府性 基金预算）承压，其中 10 月全国政府性基金预算收入同比增速录得-18.4%（前值 5.6%），而政府性基金支出增速放缓至-38.2%。 综合来看，广义财政（全国一般公共预算+政府性基金预算）收支处于再平衡的切换节 点，10 月广义财政收入端增速有所回落，支出端增速放缓较多。1-10 月广义财政预算 收入完成度 60.5%（10 月广义财政预算收入当月同比增速-0.6%），完成度与 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ghanaian government has set robust macroeconomic targets for the 2026 fiscal year and the medium term (2026-2029), focusing on sustainable growth and fiscal management [1] Economic Growth Targets - The government aims for an average real GDP growth of 4.9% over the medium term, with non-oil sector growth around 5.0% to promote economic diversification [1] - For the 2026 fiscal year, the real GDP growth target is set at no less than 4.8%, and non-oil GDP growth is targeted at a minimum of 4.9% [1] Inflation and Fiscal Surplus Goals - The inflation rate is targeted to be maintained within a range of 8% ± 2% [1] - The government plans to achieve a primary fiscal surplus equivalent to 1.5% of GDP starting in 2026 to strengthen fiscal health [1] External Reserves and Investor Confidence - The budget includes a plan to maintain international reserves at a level sufficient to cover at least three months of import expenses, aimed at enhancing external buffers, stabilizing the local currency, and boosting investor confidence [1] Budget Deficit Improvement - The budget deficit target for 2026 is set at 2%, showing an improvement compared to 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese government has issued Resolution No. 86, aiming to ensure the completion of economic and social development targets by 2025, with a focus on achieving a GDP growth rate of at least 8% by 2025 and laying the groundwork for a 10% growth target in 2026 [1] Economic Growth and Stability - The government plans to reassess economic growth and actively respond to natural disasters and flooding impacts [1] - A combination of "moderately loose fiscal policy" and "proactive flexible monetary policy" will be implemented to maintain macroeconomic stability and control inflation [1] Fiscal and Investment Goals - The target is to increase fiscal revenue by at least 25% compared to the budget [1] - Ensuring sufficient public investment funding and guaranteeing the supply of essential goods during the Lunar New Year [1] Infrastructure Development - The government aims to improve the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency and data markets [1] - Key investments will be made in major infrastructure projects, including the Lao Cai-Hanoi-Haiphong railway and the North-South expressway, through government bond issuance [1] - Preparations are underway for significant project inaugurations or groundbreaking ceremonies on December 19, 2025, coinciding with the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam [1]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for solidifying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization in China, with a focus on comprehensive development amidst complex changes in the development environment [2][3] - The guiding ideology and the "six important principles" established by the recent plenary session are significant achievements in deepening the understanding of economic and social development laws [3][4] - The emphasis on high-quality development is highlighted as the primary task for building a modern socialist country, with specific projects like the 350 MW photovoltaic power project in Binzhou demonstrating this commitment [4][5] Group 2 - The development of the new energy industry in Zhanhua District has shown remarkable results, with a total installed capacity of 4.1859 million kilowatts and an expected annual power generation of 6.6 billion kilowatt-hours, nearly three times the district's social electricity consumption [5] - Qingdao Customs has implemented over 100 measures to support the development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization demonstration zone and has introduced more than 130 innovative measures for the free trade pilot zone, enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing costs for enterprises [6] - The focus on integrating green energy projects, such as the development of a green electricity industrial park, aims to establish Zhanhua as a leading city in green energy [5][6]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[5] - National general public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[5] - By September 2025, the completion rate of general public budget revenue was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%[6] Fiscal Trends - General fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, rebounding by 2.9 percentage points from August[6] - General fiscal expenditure in September 2025 grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to August[6] - The issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 10.3 trillion yuan by September 28, 2025, with an issuance progress of 87%[8] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds, including new general and special bonds, totaled 10.3 trillion yuan, which is 2.8 trillion yuan more than the previous year[8] - The issuance of new special bonds was 36,612 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 83%, lagging behind the same period in 2024 by over 6 percentage points[8] - A new policy-oriented financial tool of 500 billion yuan was established by the end of September 2025, with over 100 billion yuan already allocated to sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence by mid-October[11] Budget Completion and Spending - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure in September 2025 was 9.7%, consistent with the five-year average[26] - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% in September 2025, down over 19 percentage points from August[34] - The completion rate for government fund income in September 2025 was 6.8%, higher than the 5.7% in 2024 but below the five-year average of 7.1%[18]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of a significant rise in global government debt, predicting that by 2029, the debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed 100%, the highest level since 1948 [1] - In a "downside but plausible" scenario, this ratio could reach 123%, approaching the post-World War II peak of 132% [1] - The IMF highlights the risk of a "vicious cycle" between fiscal and financial instability, reminiscent of the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis [1] Group 1 - Developed economies are under severe debt pressure, with countries like the US, Japan, and the UK having government debt exceeding 100% of GDP [1] - The US debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to surpass 140% by the end of this decade (2029) [1] - Rising borrowing costs, significantly higher than the ultra-low rates from the 2008 financial crisis to the 2020 pandemic, exacerbate the debt repayment burden [1] Group 2 - The IMF proposes structural responses, suggesting that developed economies invest 1% of GDP in education, potentially increasing GDP by over 3% by 2050 [2] - Emerging markets and developing economies could see nearly double the growth benefits through human capital investment [2] - The IMF urges countries to "act immediately" to build fiscal buffers and enhance resilience before severe economic turmoil occurs [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is showing resilience with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, but signs of slowdown are evident in the third quarter, necessitating measures to boost consumption to stabilize growth [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The fiscal policy has significantly strengthened since September last year, with net financing of government bonds reaching 7.66 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest issuance since 2020 [5]. - Broad fiscal expenditure grew by 9.3% year-on-year from January to July, the highest level since 2022, indicating a strong fiscal push [5]. - Retail sales growth reached 5% in the first half of the year, surpassing last year's annual growth of 3.5%, largely due to fiscal measures [5]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - The shift in policy focus from investment to consumption has led to a notable increase in retail sales, particularly after the implementation of the "trade-in" policy, which saw a 20% to 30% growth in related products [6]. - New consumption trends include a surge in health-related products, the rise of domestic brands, rapid growth in AI product consumption, and increased spending by the elderly, although consumption remains uneven across different city tiers [6][10]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Economic data from July to August indicates a significant slowdown, with retail growth dropping to 3.4% in August, and fixed asset investment continuing to decline [8]. - Exports are facing challenges, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 4.4% in August, and a notable decline in toy and bag exports by approximately 20% [8][9]. - The real estate market continues to struggle, with a 10.6% year-on-year drop in sales area in August and a nearly 20% decline in new construction starts [9]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Expanding the categories eligible for the "trade-in" program is recommended to sustain retail growth, including adding baby products to the list [11]. - Increasing support for service consumption through subsidies and vouchers for sectors like dining, tourism, and health is suggested to enhance overall demand [11]. - Encouraging high-end consumption by relaxing restrictions in areas such as yacht purchases could stimulate significant economic activity [12].