Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on China's exports, emphasizing the need to understand the core contradictions in the export transmission path and to closely monitor key variables through a high-frequency tracking framework [4][17]. Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty and Export Impact - The fluctuations in Trump's tariffs create significant estimation errors regarding their impact on China's overall exports, making it crucial to identify key variables and track their changes [4][17]. - The core elements affecting U.S. import demand under tariff pressures include U.S. tariff policies, the transmission of tariffs to import prices, and the impact on consumer purchasing power [17]. Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking Framework - A high-frequency tracking framework has been established, consisting of six categories and sixteen indicators to monitor global trade demand, Chinese export volume and price, direct trade flow between China and the U.S., potential transshipment trade, U.S. import demand, and effective tariff rates [18]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI are used to track global trade volume, indicating a downward trend in global cargo export volume growth [5][24]. - The RJ/CRB Index is employed to monitor global trade price growth, showing a recovery from -0.8% to 1.2% between April and May [6][25]. Group 3: Monitoring Chinese Exports - Container throughput at monitored ports is used to track China's export volume, which has shown a marginal decline from 7.3% to 6.7% year-on-year as of May 25 [7][29]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for China's export prices, indicating a potential weakening trend in export prices over the next three months [8][33]. - Import data from South Korea and Vietnam are utilized as synchronous indicators for China's overall export performance, with recent data suggesting a marginal weakening in exports [9][41]. Group 4: U.S. Import Demand and Tariff Rates - U.S. import demand is tracked through IHS Markit customs data, revealing a decline in import amounts and container volumes, reflecting the impact of new tariffs [13][68]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 6.3% in April to 8.1% in May, indicating a rising burden on imports [14][86]. - Predictions from the National Retail Federation suggest a significant drop in U.S. container imports, with expectations of a -13% year-on-year decline in May [78][79].

❖ 核心观点：综合考虑关税不确定性下出口主要矛盾、数据可得性、跟踪及时性 等因素后，我们构建出口 6 大类别、16 大指标高频跟踪框架（图 1），这些指 标目前显示的出口叙事是：4 月美国新增关税对需求的压制似乎逐渐体现在 5 月出口数据上，用于跟踪出口"量"的主要高频指标均边际走弱。此外，5 月 12 日，中美签署日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，市场预期的"抢出口"潮目前 只从运价指标（北美航线运价暴涨）以及美国 Markit 制造业 PMI 新订单和 采购库存指数上看到一些端倪，出口"量"的高频似乎还看不到有"抢出口" 的迹象。 ❖ 一、把握关税不确定性对出口冲击的核心矛盾 特朗普关税反复无常，静态估算关税对中国整体出口冲击，误差可能较大。因 此，对市场而言更重要的可能是，从宏观层面把握关税对出口传导路径的核心 矛盾，抓住影响核心矛盾的关键变量，以及从客观高频或者同步指标层面密切 跟踪关键变量的变化。本文旨在构建一个关税不确定性背景下更加实用的出口 高频跟踪框架。 ❖ 二、关税不确定性下的出口高频跟踪框架 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 不止是"出口"——中国出口研判进阶手册 （一）如何跟踪全球贸易需求 ...