Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the need for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. It anticipates the introduction of new policies to stimulate the economy in response to various challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target. However, the GDP deflator index fell by 1.2% in the second quarter, marking nine consecutive quarters of negative growth in the index, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which significantly boosted consumption [3][4]. Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, with notable growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and communication equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%. However, real estate investment declined by 11.2%. Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to total investment growth [6][7]. Trade and Export - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand [9][10]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate. The article notes that the base effect from last year's policies may lead to weaker economic data in the second half [12][14]. - Real estate sales and prices have shown signs of decline, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half [17][18]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, with an emphasis on optimizing existing budgets and addressing specific economic challenges [20][21]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and stimulate demand, while investment strategies will likely shift towards infrastructure projects to counteract declining manufacturing and real estate investments [22][25]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments such as a small reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates, particularly in response to global economic conditions [26][27]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the main issues facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output, suggesting that a focus on domestic and international circulation and supply-demand relationships is crucial for understanding economic pressures [18][29].

在近两年扑朔迷离的中国经济中，有一个非常显著且急待解释的现象：为何GDP仍维持在5%左右的增 长水平，而税收却持续下滑？且两者的差距还在持续扩大中。 回顾过去十年，税收与GDP之间的短期背离并非首次出现，且多可归因于制度性减税。例如：2016年全 面推行营业税改增值税，服务业减负约5,000亿元；2019年大规模下调增值税税率；2022年疫情冲击 下，推出4.6万亿元的减税退税政策，占当年税收总额的27%。这三年税收落后GDP的幅度分别为 1.9%、5%和6.5%。 但在多数年份，尤其是"金税三期"全面推行之后，税收增速反而明显快于GDP。2017年税收跑赢GDP 3.8%，2018年为1.7%，2021年为3.8%，2023年为3.5%。这一方面源于电子化征管系统强化了税基，另 一方面也反映出征管效率持续提升的结构性趋势。 问题出现在2024年。在没有大规模减税出台的背景下，税收增速却断崖式下跌，与GDP的剪刀差扩大 到-8.4%，2025年一季度进一步拉大至-8.9%。这一数字不仅远超历史上的异常年份（在减税额度达到到 27%的2022年，税收落后GDP的最大剪刀差也是-6.5%），也彻底打破了"税收与G ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on China's exports, emphasizing the need to understand the core contradictions in the export transmission path and to closely monitor key variables through a high-frequency tracking framework [4][17]. Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty and Export Impact - The fluctuations in Trump's tariffs create significant estimation errors regarding their impact on China's overall exports, making it crucial to identify key variables and track their changes [4][17]. - The core elements affecting U.S. import demand under tariff pressures include U.S. tariff policies, the transmission of tariffs to import prices, and the impact on consumer purchasing power [17]. Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking Framework - A high-frequency tracking framework has been established, consisting of six categories and sixteen indicators to monitor global trade demand, Chinese export volume and price, direct trade flow between China and the U.S., potential transshipment trade, U.S. import demand, and effective tariff rates [18]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI are used to track global trade volume, indicating a downward trend in global cargo export volume growth [5][24]. - The RJ/CRB Index is employed to monitor global trade price growth, showing a recovery from -0.8% to 1.2% between April and May [6][25]. Group 3: Monitoring Chinese Exports - Container throughput at monitored ports is used to track China's export volume, which has shown a marginal decline from 7.3% to 6.7% year-on-year as of May 25 [7][29]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for China's export prices, indicating a potential weakening trend in export prices over the next three months [8][33]. - Import data from South Korea and Vietnam are utilized as synchronous indicators for China's overall export performance, with recent data suggesting a marginal weakening in exports [9][41]. Group 4: U.S. Import Demand and Tariff Rates - U.S. import demand is tracked through IHS Markit customs data, revealing a decline in import amounts and container volumes, reflecting the impact of new tariffs [13][68]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 6.3% in April to 8.1% in May, indicating a rising burden on imports [14][86]. - Predictions from the National Retail Federation suggest a significant drop in U.S. container imports, with expectations of a -13% year-on-year decline in May [78][79].

Group 1 - The core focus of the Langfang Economic and Trade Fair is to promote consumption, with over 50 enterprises from more than 20 countries and regions confirmed to participate in the import goods exhibition, featuring 18 products making their debut in Hebei Province [1][2] - The fair, which has evolved since its inception in 1984, is now the only national professional exhibition themed on modern commercial logistics, with the current edition emphasizing consumption promotion through various themed exhibition areas [2] - The 2024 Langfang Economic and Trade Fair will introduce the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei International Cooperation Investment Hall" and will focus on six key industrial chains, organizing four specialized activities to enhance investment attraction [2] Group 2 - The 2025 Langfang Economic and Trade Fair is scheduled to take place from June 16 to June 20, featuring four major segments and 20 specialized activities, including government affairs and investment attraction events [3] - The fair will also unveil its mascot, "Lu Lu," symbolizing the "Belt and Road" initiative, representing connectivity and pathways [3]