13日午后，银行股震荡走强，支撑沪指跌幅进一步收窄，浦发银行、南京银行放量涨超5%，齐鲁银 行、渝农商行涨超3%，农业银行涨超1%。百亿顶流银行ETF（512800）早盘短暂回落后顽强飘红，午 后直线拉升，场内价格一度涨1.4%，现涨1.03%，实时成交额15.51亿元，已超前一日全天成交额。 银河证券指出，关税冲击或再现，若本轮加征关税落地，一方面，银行受影响整体可控；另一方面，关 税不确定性加剧全球资产价格波动，催生防御性配置需求，带来银行配置机遇。银行板块分红稳定，且 经过一段时期回调后股息率性价比回升，红利价值有望吸引避险资金流入。 风险提示：银行ETF被动跟踪中证银行指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2013.7.15。中证银行指 数近5个完整年度涨跌幅为：2024年，34.71%；2023年，-7.27%；2022年，-8.78%；2021年，-4.41%； 2020年，-4.23%。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，过往业绩不预示未来表现。文中指数 成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议，也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交 易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人| 陈达飞 摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：关税不确定性再度上升 全球风险资产多数回调，黄金、美债等避险资产大涨。 当周，标普500下跌2.4%，纳斯达克指数下跌2.5%；10Y美债收益率下行8bp至4.05%；美元指数上涨1.1% 至98.8，离岸人民币贬至7.15；WTI原油大跌3.3%至58.9美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨2.7%至3986.2美元/盎司。 关税不确定性再度上升，海外政治局势普遍动荡。 中美会晤前夕，特朗普关税威胁再度升级，重要会晤前释放强硬信号，是特朗普以往贸易谈判中惯用策略。 法国总理"闪电复职"，政府深层风险未根本缓解；日本公明党退出执政联盟，高市早苗首相之路存变数。 美联储9月会议纪要显示官员意见分化，美国私募信贷风险引发关注。 纪要显示，许多官员认为，今年继续降息是合适的。但是，一些官员认为金融条件宽松， 需谨慎降息，与本周部分官员讲话对应；美国汽车零部件制造商First Brands破产，市场对私募信贷风险担忧提升。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数 ...

格隆汇10月10日｜花旗银行投资策略及资产配置部发表报告指，美汇指数3个月预测为96.61，未来6至 12个月预测为101.84，花旗分析师预期2026年美元或收复失地。明年美国中期选举期间，届时将有更多 支持明年美国经济增长政策(放松监管、提前减税，并延后减少开支政策)、人工智能及资本开支增长强 劲和关税不确定性消退等，应支持美国经济增长预期反弹。 ...

Core Insights - Orders declined for the fourth consecutive month in August, primarily due to tariff uncertainty affecting international orders [1] Industry Summary - The ongoing tariff uncertainty has led to a significant decrease in international orders, impacting overall order volumes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to continue benefiting from liquidity easing and can hedge against uncertainties brought by tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, 2025, COMEX gold futures have risen nearly 8% in September [1] - The key drivers for this increase include concerns over European fiscal stability and the recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, marking the first cut in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The U.S. job market faces downside risks, and inflation has not exceeded expectations, suggesting further rate cuts may occur within the year [1] - Ongoing uncertainties in the global landscape, including political turmoil in Europe and Japan, have contributed to the rise in gold prices since August [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - The recent initiation of Section 232 tariff investigations by the U.S. on specific industries adds to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, making gold a potential hedge against volatility in risk assets like the stock market [1]

Economic Environment - The current economic environment is characterized by both structural and cyclical challenges, with companies entering the year with strong balance sheets and the ability to innovate despite tariff uncertainties [3][4] - Interest rates are still considered restrictive, prompting discussions about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with debates surrounding the neutral rate and inflation's transitory nature [4][18] Investment Strategy - A diversified portfolio is recommended, particularly focusing on fixed income, which provides income and diversification benefits amid potential economic slowdowns [5][6] - There is a positive outlook for bond funds, especially in the context of strong corporate balance sheets and the potential for yields in high-grade corporate paper [7][8] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with companies pausing hiring due to tariff-related uncertainties and potential government shutdowns impacting the outlook [9][15] - There are balanced risks in the labor market, with the possibility of both hiring and firing depending on economic conditions and tariff resolutions [12][17] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates gradually, with current rates around 4.25%, and discussions about reaching a neutral rate between 2.5% and 3.5% [18][19] - The Fed's actions are influenced by the current economic data, which is perceived as murky, and the need for more information to guide future decisions [17][18]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容来自 工商时报 。 晶圆代工龙头台积电再缔新猷，22日收1,295元、改写天价纪录，市场目光锁定外资目标价何时调 升之际，野村证券指出，台湾二线晶圆代工厂基本面表现优于市场预期，尤其观察到联电出现比往 常更早到来的急单潮，维持「买进」投资评等、合理股价预期50元，二哥拼翻扬，不让大哥专美 于前。 反映客户端库存水位偏低，部分客户也在关税不确定性逐渐消退后，开始重新检视产能配置策略。 事实上，过去二年非AI半导体L型复苏期间，联电几乎每一季都会出现急单，急单并非新鲜事，但 这次「提前出现」值得留意。虽然目前下定论可能言之过早，但不排除自2026年上半年起，随关 税阴霾散去，无晶圆厂客户可能启动新一波拉货周期，晶圆代工厂最快第四季起就会有所感受。 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 *免责声明：文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体芯闻转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体芯闻对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系我们。 推荐阅读 10万亿，投向半导体 芯片巨头，市值大跌 黄仁勋：HBM是个技术奇迹 Jim Keller：RISC-V一定会胜出 全球市值最高的1 ...

Core Insights - RH reported lower-than-expected second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with adjusted earnings and net revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, although both metrics increased year-over-year [1][4][5] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS was $2.93, missing the estimate of $3.19 by 8.2%, but up from $1.69 in the same period last year [4][8] - Net revenues were $899.2 million, slightly below the consensus mark of $906 million by 0.7%, but improved 8.3% year-over-year [5][8] - Demand rose 13.7% despite a challenging housing market, with two-year revenue growth at 12% and demand growth at 21% [5] Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross margin expanded by 80 basis points to 46% [6] - Adjusted operating margin increased by 340 basis points year-over-year to 15.1% [6] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% year-over-year to $185 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.6% [6] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $34.6 million from $30.4 million at the end of fiscal 2024 [7] - Merchandise inventories decreased to $957 million from $1.02 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 [7] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $224.3 million for the first six months of fiscal 2025, compared to $67.3 million in the prior year [8] Future Guidance - For Q3, RH expects net revenues to grow between 8% and 10% year-over-year, with adjusted operating margin projected between 12% and 13% [10] - Fiscal 2025 revenue growth expectations have been lowered to between 9% and 11%, with adjusted operating margin now expected between 13% and 14% [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and profit-taking after reaching a five-month high, with market attention on key U.S. employment data and tariff uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: LME Copper Market - On September 4, LME three-month copper dropped by $77.5, or 0.78%, closing at $9,898.0 per ton [1][2]. - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13% [4]. - The $10,000 level is currently seen as a strong resistance for copper prices, with insufficient fundamentals to break through [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy meetings [4]. - In August, U.S. private sector jobs increased by 54,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a loosening labor market [4]. - The anticipated non-farm payroll report may show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, compared to 73,000 in July [4]. Group 3: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum fell by $27.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,591.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $17.5, or 0.61%, closing at $2,843.5 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead dropped by $10, or 0.5%, closing at $1,985.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel declined by $68, or 0.44%, closing at $15,236.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin fell by $106, or 0.31%, closing at $34,556.0 per ton [2][11]. Group 4: Dollar Impact on Commodities - A stable dollar index makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2023, driven by four main factors: the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" [1][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - **Federal Reserve Independence**: Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly with Trump's influence over the board. A loss of independence could lead to increased inflation risks, debt issues, and a weakened dollar, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The market anticipates a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the JH meeting. Historically, gold has risen during most rate cut cycles, making this a significant factor for its price increase [3]. - **Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty**: Recent court rulings regarding tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market uncertainty, further increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - **De-dollarization Trend**: Global central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, with it becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar. This trend is expected to support gold demand amid rising concerns over U.S. fiscal policies and the dollar's stability [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - **Continued Upward Pressure**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to maintain strong demand for gold from both private sectors and ETFs, which will likely attract more capital inflows and support higher gold prices [6][7].