Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of analyst consensus expectations in predicting future industry performance, particularly in the context of the current A-share market, which is characterized by valuation recovery and liquidity-driven trends [9][11][12] - The report constructs a composite expectation factor to capture marginal changes in industry prosperity, focusing on the strength and magnitude of upward revisions in analyst forecasts [11][12][49] - The analysis categorizes expected indicators into three groups: profitability, asset quality, and cost metrics, which are essential for assessing market expectations regarding industry fundamentals [16][23] Group 2 - The upward strength signal reflects the breadth of upward revisions within an industry, indicating improvements in industry prosperity [30][32] - The upward magnitude signal measures the month-on-month improvement in overall industry forecasts, highlighting the concentration and intensity of industry recovery [40][44] - The report identifies that profitability-related indicators, such as expected net profit and ROE, significantly outperform cash flow and cost indicators in terms of predictive power and return potential [35][44] Group 3 - The composite expectation score combines upward strength and upward magnitude to provide a comprehensive view of industry prosperity, with higher scores correlating with better future performance [53][65] - The backtesting results show that the top-performing industries based on the composite score yield substantial excess returns compared to the benchmark, demonstrating the model's effectiveness in identifying profitable sectors [70][73] - The report highlights that the top five industry strategy achieved an annualized excess return of 12.40%, indicating strong predictive capabilities of the model [70][74]