摘要 2025 年年报业绩低于预期，投资端尤其是权益市场表现不佳是核心矛 盾，叠加节后国债利率回撤，市场对投资端改善预期落空。银保增长受 限传闻仅为合规层面关注，整体回调存在错杀，板块性价比提升。 2026 年一季度权益环境同比改善，沪深 300 和中证 1,000 均优于去年 同期。资产规模增长和权益仓位提升支持下，大盘指数只需上涨 10%左 右，保险投资端即可实现同比正增长。 存款搬家可能为保险带来增量，乐观估计每年新单增量可达 8,000 亿， 增速 66%；保守估计每年新单增量 4,000 亿，增速 33%。未来三年负 债端确定性增长可期。 分红险占比提升导致 margin 下滑，但若新单与期交实现 30%以上增长， 上市公司实现两位数 NBV 增长具备可行性。二季度各公司可能加大产品 策略投放与支持，负债端表现预计良好。 2025 年年报偏弱原因包括四季度成长赛道回调、债券端拖累以及指导 性因素导致利润调整。年报偏弱反而降低了 2026 年业绩压力，一季度 投资业绩和 NBV 增长具备较好基础。 Q&A 本轮保险板块持续回调的核心原因是什么，市场传闻因素对股价扰动的权重如 何？ 触发本轮回调的因素包 ...

距2025年8月底人身险产品预定利率切换尚不足半年，分红险保底收益水平再下新台阶。据财联社记者从3家寿险中介平台了解到， 目前市 面上已经出现预定利率为1.25%的分红险产品，这较去年监管划定的分红险预定利率上限1.75%，出现了明显下调。 值得注意的是，1.25%这一新定价锚点的出现，释放了何种信号？多位业内专家认为，从"高保证+低浮动"向"低保证+高浮动"转型，已是 人身险产品演进的明确趋势。 未来，主动调降分红险预定利率的险企或逐步增加，客户选品将会更加倚重保险公司在长期投资管理方面的专业能 力，以及持续稳健经营的综合实力。 据财联社记者从业内获悉，在寿险"老六家"中，至少已有4家完成预定利率1.25%分红险产品的报备与储备，但短期内不会推向市场。相比 之下，5家分别来自北上广深及天津的中型险企则明确表示，计划于2026年推出该定价水平的分红险，以补充产品矩阵，适配客户多元化的 需求。 首都经济贸易大学教授、博士生导师范庆泉对财联社记者表示："在利率下行背景下，保险公司主动调降预定利率，是为匹配负债成本、确 保长期稳健经营而做出的理性选择，尤其对于具有保底给付特性的分红险，此举有助于打破内卷式竞争，引导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a shift towards dividend insurance products due to the prolonged low interest rate environment, with analysts predicting a full transition by 2026 [1][4]. Industry Trends - Dividend insurance is regaining popularity as it offers a combination of guaranteed benefits and floating dividends, making it attractive for both customers and insurance companies [1][4]. - The proportion of dividend insurance in new premium income has significantly increased, with China Pacific Insurance reporting a rise from 51% to 58.6% in just a few months [4]. Company Strategies - Major insurance companies like China Ping An and New China Life are enhancing their dividend product offerings and reporting substantial growth in dividend insurance premiums, with Ping An seeing a 40.9% year-on-year increase [5][4]. - China Taiping has achieved a remarkable 116.0% year-on-year growth in dividend insurance premiums, indicating a successful transition to this product type [5]. Investment Capabilities - The ability of insurance companies to invest effectively is crucial for their success in the dividend insurance market, as higher investment returns lead to better dividend payouts for policyholders [6][8]. - Companies are adopting various investment strategies, such as tactical and strategic asset allocation, to optimize their investment performance and enhance the competitiveness of their dividend insurance products [8]. Regulatory Environment - New regulations require insurance companies to align their dividend levels with actual asset-liability management and investment returns, promoting a shift towards high-quality and sustainable development in the industry [9].