分配制度

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高培勇:居民收入预期更多取决于未来分配制度走势
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-22 02:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that changes in retail sales growth are primarily influenced by residents' income levels and future income expectations rather than supply-demand dynamics in the consumer goods or services market [1][2] - It is essential to incorporate expected factors into macroeconomic analysis, moving beyond traditional supply-demand models to address the complexities of the current economic situation [1] - Long-term expectations of future income are significantly influenced by the trajectory of the distribution system, not just economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The discussion on improving the distribution system highlights the need for a coordinated system encompassing primary distribution, redistribution, and tertiary distribution, along with increased regulatory measures through taxation, social security, and transfer payments [1][2] - The focus of the redistribution system should be on individual residents rather than corporate intermediaries, and it is crucial to regulate wealth accumulation mechanisms that increasingly affect income distribution [2] - The recommendation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to conduct analyses that are more aligned with China's realities, emphasizing reforms and opening up as fundamental to driving economic growth [2]
AI替代了剩余价值公式中的可变资本V:谁来消费商品?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 05:50
作为对网友的回答,我写过一篇文章《智能机器人取代了人类劳动:谁来消费商品?》,写着写着就跑偏了,忘了回答:谁来消费商品? 其实这是个伪命题,我脑子里没这种问题,因为最终决定分配的,既不是智能机器人,也不是资本家。 在未来的十年,甚至是五年中,人类将感受到ai对就业的冲击,正如机械化、自动化对农业人口的冲击,发达国家的农业人口占比在2%左右,美国为 1.3%,只有200多万人从事农业劳动;中国约五亿,占比为36.11%。这么大的差距,但并不意味着美国的失业率会比中国高,2024年美国失业率是4.1%, 中国是5.2%。 所以,我关心的不是谁来消费商品?而是要好好学习,天天向上,如何与AI共存,deepseek的深度学习研究员没有被干掉,工薪从去年的50-80万,提升到 了今年最高154万元。被干掉的将是简单的重复性劳动,不管是体力劳动,还是脑力劳动。 进一步说,ai学习的速度会比教改更快,于是,大学很快将成为失业者培训基地,失业率的冲击是真实的,李开复说未来15年,50%的人类工作会被人工智 能取代。麦肯锡全球研究院预测,到二〇三〇年,全球将有四亿至八亿人因自动化失去岗位,其中印度、巴西等新兴市场受冲击比例可能 ...