Core Insights - The new housing policy implemented in Shanghai on August 25 has shown initial positive effects on the real estate market, with distinct recovery trends in the new and second-hand housing markets [1][5][6] New Housing Market - The new housing market demonstrated a significant short-term boost, with a more than 30% increase in transaction volume in the first week following the policy implementation, leading to a clear peak in transactions [5] - Overall, new housing transaction volume increased by 19% month-on-month, although it still saw a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, which is a 33 percentage point improvement compared to the previous year [5] - The initial surge in new housing transactions was not sustained, as the volume gradually returned to a more stable level after the first week, yet it remained at a relatively high level [5] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market exhibited a steady recovery, with weekly transaction volumes showing a gradual increase, reaching 5021 units in the fourth week post-policy [6] - The decrease in second-hand housing listings by 1453 units since September indicates improved market confidence among sellers, contributing to a better balance between supply and demand [6][9] - The increase in customer inquiries and property viewings suggests heightened market activity, with leading real estate agencies reporting a rise in engagement [6] Impact of Policy Changes - The policy's relaxation of purchase restrictions in the outer ring areas of Shanghai has significantly influenced market dynamics, with these areas accounting for 61% of new housing transactions and 51% of second-hand transactions in the city [7][8] - Following the policy change, the proportion of new housing transactions in the outer ring areas rose to 73.45%, marking a notable increase from the average of 61% [8] - The second-hand housing market in these areas also saw increased activity, with transaction proportions exceeding the annual average, indicating a revitalization of demand [8] Market Outlook - Despite the initial positive effects of the policy, market analysts remain cautious about the long-term impact, noting that similar past policies typically lead to temporary boosts in transaction volumes without sustained price increases [8] - The current high inventory levels in the second-hand housing market, with 356,549 listings as of September 26, pose challenges for a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics [9][10]