每经记者｜包晶晶 每经编辑｜陈梦妤 2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 "门锁密码还没改，下一位租户就已经确定了，当天傍晚就谈好了，付款、签合同，无缝衔接。前两年的租金一直是1900元/月，这次月租金还涨了100 元。" 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 但临近年末，市场开始出现变化。"近一个月，我收藏的房源中下架和成交的很多。"小叶告诉每经记者，"某App已经被我翻遍了，能看上的不多，好楼 层、好户型、好小区且价格又合理的，很稀缺"。 2025年 ...

2025年末上海楼市表现强势，二手房成交量连续两个月突破2.2万套，全年达25.4万套，创四年来新高。新房市场12月成交面积也环比增加 45.9%，租房市场同样活跃。当前市场表现优于前两年，但成交量尚未达到价格止跌回升的临界点，若纯住宅月度成交量持续超过2.1万 套，"量在价先"规律或将在2026年上海楼市显现。 2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 但临近年末，市场开始出现变化。"近一个月，我收藏的房源中下架和成交的很多。"小叶告诉每经记者，"某App已经被我翻遍了，能看上的不多，好楼 层、好户型、好小区且价格又合理的，很稀缺"。 2025年12月的最后一周，就在小叶准备出手时，她"最中意"的那套房却成交了。"去年买老破小的买家似乎都特别积极，像我其实就很着急，能接受超出 预算10万元，想赶在最近签字，然后春节前完成过户。" 无奈之下，小叶只能再去看另一套房，"不敢等到元旦后"。最终小叶连夜付 ...

2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 但临近年末，市场开始出现变化。"近一个月，我收藏的房源中下架和成交的很多。"小叶告诉每经记者，"某App已经被我翻遍了，能看上的不多，好楼 层、好户型、好小区且价格又合理的，很稀缺"。 无奈之下，小叶只能再去看另一套房，"不敢等到元旦后"。 最终小叶连夜付了定金，抢到了房，"快点买也是一种省钱方式，我想早点搬进去"。 与此相印证，上海新房市场2025年末表现也比较积极。上海中原地 ...

2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 房东江先生告诉每经记者，他有一套位于远郊的高层住宅，2025年12月31日合同到期，当天下午还在交接和保洁，就已经有中介抢先带看了。还有几位中 介提前几天就盯着他，计划交接后带看。 "门锁密码还没改，下一位租户就已经确定了，当天傍晚就谈好了，付款、签合同，无缝衔接。前两年的租金一直是1900元/月，这次月租金还涨了100 元。" 江先生表示，这套房子买得早，持有成本低，收房至今一直处于出租状态，几乎没有空置过。租金也从最初的1700元/月慢慢涨到现在的2000元/月，比卖 房划算。 要涨价了？ 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格 ...

于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 但临近年末，市场开始出现变化。"近一个月，我收藏的房源中下架和成交的很多。"小叶告诉每经记者，"某App已经被我翻遍了，能看上的不多，好楼 层、好户型、好小区且价格又合理的，很稀缺"。 每经记者｜包晶晶 每经编辑｜程鹏 陈梦妤 2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 2025年12月的最后一周，就在小叶准备出手时，她"最中意"的那套房却成交了。"去年买老破小的买家似乎都特别积极，像我其实就很着急，能接受超出 预算10万 ...

撰文｜包晶晶 编辑｜陈梦妤 封面图源｜包晶晶 2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 1 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 要涨价了？ "门锁密码还没改，下一位租户就已经确定了，当天傍晚就谈好了，付款、签合同，无缝衔接。前两年的租金一直是1900元/月，这次月租金还涨了100 元。" 江先生表示，这套房子买得早，持有成本低，收房至今一直处于出租状态，几乎没有空置过。租金也从最初的1700元/月慢慢涨到现在的2000元/月，比卖 房划算。 2 要涨价了？ 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing significant changes in the first half of 2025 due to the implementation of policies such as "沪九条" and "沪七条," leading to a differentiated performance between core and peripheral areas, with a focus on the importance of quality and location in property selection [1][5][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2024, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a total of 242,700 transactions, an increase of over 50,000 from 2023, marking a three-year high [2]. - The average transaction price for luxury properties in core areas remains strong, with notable sales such as a 434 square meter unit in Pudong selling for 335,700 yuan per square meter [2]. - The new housing market is characterized by a stark contrast, with luxury properties selling out quickly while demand for affordable housing in suburban areas remains weak, leading to a 24% decline in new home transactions compared to 2023 [8][10]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "沪九条" policy, which relaxed restrictions for single buyers from outside the city, resulted in a 40% increase in transaction volume in the 联洋 area shortly after its implementation [5]. - The "沪七条" policy, which removed distinctions between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, led to a record monthly transaction volume of 29,700 units in December 2024 [5]. - The policies are seen as the most lenient in a decade, significantly stimulating both demand for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their living conditions [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The differentiation in the market is evident, with older neighborhoods in Qingpu and Jiading seeing listing prices drop by over 3% year-on-year, while high-quality properties maintain their value [7]. - The average price of new homes in Shanghai reached 76,135 yuan per square meter in 2024, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by luxury properties [12]. - The market is moving away from speculative buying, with a shift towards more rational purchasing decisions among buyers, reflecting a return to the essence of housing needs [16][20].

Market Overview - The Shanghai new housing market in 2025 shows volatility, with initial low demand and sales, followed by a rebound from February to April, and a subsequent decline from May to September[1] - The market is characterized by structural differentiation, with some projects achieving a subscription rate of 283% while others have a sales rate of only 53% over 15 months[1] Policy Environment - The demand-side policy adjustments include the reduction of the outer ring purchase restrictions and down payment ratios, aiming to stimulate demand in the outer ring areas, where the transaction area share decreased from 71% in 2022 to 65% in 2025[5][7] - The supply-side policy focuses on enhancing housing quality through 17 specific regulations, shifting market competition from price to quality[6] Demand Characteristics - The demand for larger units (90-120 sqm and 120-140 sqm) is prominent, with the 120-140 sqm category peaking at 36.4% in July 2025[8][12] - The supply-demand mismatch is evident, particularly for three-bedroom units in various districts, with negative mismatch indices indicating a shortage[9] Sales Drivers for Hot Projects - Successful projects align closely with market demand, such as a project in Pudong focusing on 88-110 sqm three-bedroom units, achieving a subscription rate of 283%[14] - Competitive pricing strategies are employed, with projects priced below the average market rate to attract price-sensitive buyers[16] Challenges for Slow-Selling Projects - Misalignment of product offerings with market demand, such as a high-end project offering smaller units that do not meet the needs of improvement-seeking families, resulting in a 53% sales rate[23] - Insufficient competitive pricing and lack of appealing features contribute to slow sales, with some projects priced higher than competing offerings without corresponding value[24] Recommendations for Improvement - Projects should focus on precise market positioning and optimize unit designs to enhance appeal, such as increasing usable space and improving layout[29] - Implementing differentiated pricing strategies and enhancing marketing efforts can help improve sales performance and customer engagement[30][31]

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market experienced a 9.35% decline in second-hand home transactions in October, while new high-end projects gained attention, indicating a divergence in market activity [1][5][11] New Home Market - In October, 11,102 new homes were sold, showing a slight decrease from September, but not a drastic drop, reflecting a hesitant market [3][11] - The Huangpu District emerged as the top performer in terms of both transaction area and total price during the week of October 20-26, with a transaction area of 20,200 square meters and a total price of 4.225 billion yuan, accounting for 15.99% and 36.11% of the city's totals, respectively [3][11] Policy Impact - The "8·25 New Policy" implemented on August 25 relaxed purchase restrictions outside the outer ring, leading to a surge in new home transactions in that area, which accounted for 73.45% of total sales in the month following the policy [5][11] Second-Hand Home Market - The total number of second-hand homes sold in October was 18,483, reflecting a 9.35% decrease from September, influenced by the National Day holiday which reduced effective trading days [5][11] - Despite the decline in total transactions, the average daily sales increased from 680 in September to 754 in October, indicating underlying market activity [5][11] Pricing Trends - Approximately 80% of the homes sold had transaction prices at least 5% lower than their listing prices, suggesting that sellers are more willing to negotiate [7][11] - The demand for homes priced below 5 million yuan remains strong, while high-end properties in core areas have limited negotiation space, with price adjustments between 3% to 5% [7][9] Market Segmentation - There is a growing divide between the outer and core areas, with noticeable price reductions in the outer regions while core areas maintain relative price stability due to resource scarcity and location advantages [9][11] - The market is not uniformly hot or cold; rather, it reflects a nuanced landscape where high-quality projects continue to perform well despite broader market challenges [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Shanghai indicates a robust real estate market, with significant competition for prime land parcels and a positive outlook for new home sales driven by favorable policies and market conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Land Auction Results - The eighth batch of land auctions in Shanghai concluded with a total transaction amount of 19.88 billion yuan, with a notable sale at the Xuhui Riverside site for 4.465 billion yuan, reflecting a premium rate of 10% and a floor price of 148,500 yuan per square meter [3]. - The competitive bidding for core urban plots suggests an increasing development potential for high-quality land in Shanghai [5]. Group 2: New Home Market Dynamics - The new home market in Shanghai is experiencing heightened activity, with significant interest from potential buyers, as evidenced by a new development in Baoshan receiving nearly 1,000 groups of visitors in just over two weeks [9][11]. - The introduction of the "Good House Standard" on May 1 aims to enhance the quality of residential projects, raising the entry threshold for developers and promoting the construction of higher-quality homes [17][19]. Group 3: Sales Performance - In September, Shanghai's commercial housing sales area reached 1.7496 million square meters, marking a 64.22% increase from August, with residential sales area up by 73.47% to 1.2653 million square meters [21]. - The resilience of Shanghai's high-end residential market is attributed to a shift in buyer behavior, focusing more on self-occupancy needs rather than investment purposes [23].