艾肯网发布《中国中央空调存量市场报告(2024版)》的统计数据，在2006年至2015年这十年间，中国中央空调存量市场的总规模累计达到了4915 亿元人民币。 在房地产"黄金时代"，暖通行业的增长逻辑简单而直接，跟随新楼盘拔地而起，将中央空调、采暖设备源源不断装入新建的楼宇，然而当国内房 地产行业陷入调整期，随之而来的是增量市场消退，存量市场崛起，同时这几组数字背后，隐藏着暖通行业从"新建驱动"转向"改善主导"的必然 逻辑。 当然，这里所说改善需求不仅只是房产市场的舒适改善，更是既有建筑的节能改造和智能化升级这个大市场。 来源：艾肯网 区别于新建市场的"从无到有"，改善型需求聚焦于"从有到优"。 先来看几组数据，根据中指研究院的数据来看，2025上半年房地产市场产品结构90-140平方米首改类项目销售额占比45.7%，占比最高，仍是当前 的主力产品；140-200平方米改善类项目销售额占比提升0.3个百分点至26.5%，200平方米以上高端类项目销售额占比为15.6%，同比增长0.1个百分 点，增幅仅次于改善类项目。 根据《中国建筑行业现状深度调研与发展趋势分析报告(2023-2030年)》显示，中国有超过6 ...

Core Insights - The land market in Harbin showed significant activity in July, with a total of 7 residential land parcels sold for a total transaction amount of 2.484 billion yuan, indicating increased confidence from real estate companies in the regional market [1][8] - The return of national brand real estate companies and the occurrence of premium land transactions are two key signals of structural changes in the land market [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The active participation of national brand developers, such as Vanke, which returned to Harbin after five years, signals a strong reassessment of the long-term value of the Harbin market [3] - The competitive bidding for land has intensified, with several parcels experiencing premium transactions, such as a core parcel in Daoli District sold for 317 million yuan with a premium of 17.4% [3][4] - Local developers like Huilong Real Estate have also been active, acquiring multiple parcels, indicating a competitive landscape where both local and national firms are vying for prime locations [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The market is witnessing a shift from scale expansion to quality competition, with high-quality projects dominating sales, reflecting a change in land reserve strategies among developers [4][5] - The focus on improving product quality is evident, as developers are adjusting their land acquisition strategies based on product positioning rather than pursuing blind expansion [4][5] Group 3: Regional Trends - The demand for improved housing is driving regional differentiation, with several parcels specifically targeting improvement-seeking buyers, such as low-density developments in Songbei District [7] - Core areas like Nangang and Daoli continue to attract interest due to their mature infrastructure, while emerging areas like Songbei and Xiangfang are gaining traction through urban renewal projects [7][8] - The land market is expected to maintain a trend of concentrated supply, with key areas like Haxi and Qunli becoming focal points for competition in the second half of the year [7][8]

从二手房来看，房价下行趋势有所增强，结合安居客线上数据，找房热度回落、在架时长延长，亦反映 出市场需求持续疲软，虽挂牌供应和作业活力略有改善，但难抵负向影响，也与季节性淡季及购房者市 场信心有关。 值得关注的是，高能级城市价格韧性依然较强，但市场情绪有所趋冷，例如上海挂牌时长增长 12.23%，弱二线及三四线则面临"量价双杀"、库存压力突出。 安居客数据显示，7月144m²以上大户型搜索量同比上涨明显，核心城市低密洋房、地铁盘去化周期有 所收窄，预计三季度改善型需求可能成为市场主力，推动成交量结构性回暖。未来随着城市更新项目如 城中村改造、老旧小区升级将成为新增长点，也会同步带动改善需求增长。 张波表示，近期各地政策频出，尤其是北京五环外限购放松，给8月市场带来了一定热度。同时，各地 持续推出或执行以旧换新、房票安置、公积金松绑等政策，意图打通置换链条，不过政策施行效果以及 执行力度还需在8月市场继续观察。 新华财经上海8月15日电（谈瑞）国家统计局最新发布的数据显示，7月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市 商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅整体有所收窄。 具体来看，7月份，一线城市新房价格环比下降0.2%，降幅 ...

Core Insights - The new policy has significantly increased the number of visitors to new housing projects in Beijing, particularly in areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, indicating a potential sales peak in the market [1][9][10] - The policy allows families meeting certain criteria to purchase an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which is expected to stimulate demand [1][10] Market Response - Over the weekend following the policy announcement, one project reported over 50 units were reserved on the first day, with continued interest late into the night [2][4] - In a specific project in Tongzhou District, more than 70 groups visited on Sunday, showcasing a strong interest in new housing [3][6] Sales Dynamics - Sales consultants noted a clear increase in both visitor numbers and transaction volumes, with some projects experiencing up to 300 groups of visitors in a single day [7][9] - The average price for new homes in the area ranges from 6,000 to 6,300 yuan per square meter, with a significant portion of units already sold [6][10] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the new policy will lead to a sales peak in the market, as the removal of purchase limits is likely to attract more buyers [9][10] - The policy is also expected to encourage developers to accelerate project construction and sales, while the second-hand housing market may see increased activity as well [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing fluctuations in both second-hand and new housing transactions, with a notable increase in second-hand transactions year-on-year, while new housing sales are declining significantly compared to the previous year [1][4][7]. Second-hand Housing Market - In June 2025, the number of recorded second-hand housing transactions was 5,546, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a total of 35,106 second-hand housing contracts, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - The average monthly recorded transactions for second-hand housing in the first half of 2025 reached 5,851, indicating a generally active market supported by policy and demand [7]. - As of June 30, 2025, there were 73,858 second-hand properties available for sale, a month-on-month increase of 2.9% [6]. - The proportion of transactions for properties smaller than 90 square meters accounted for 55.9% of total sales, down from 61.4% in the same period of 2024, suggesting a gradual release of demand for larger properties [6]. New Housing Market - In June 2025, the pre-sale of new homes totaled 2,054 units, showing a month-on-month decline of 7.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.7% [4]. - The total pre-sale of new homes in the first half of 2025 was 16,522 units, which is an 11.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with residential sales increasing by 24.4% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a "price-for-volume" phase, with sellers having more negotiation power, indicating some uncertainty in the market [7]. - The Dragon River area has seen a 2.0 percentage point decrease in transaction share, influenced by external policy changes, particularly the recent LPR adjustment [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the construction materials sector [2] Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in high-energy cities, with improved sales of larger residential units. The demand for real estate and construction materials is expected to rise due to accelerated urban renewal initiatives [4][29] - The land market has seen a resurgence, with the top 100 companies acquiring land worth 405.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [4][27] - The report suggests focusing on stable central state-owned enterprises and regional leaders in first and second-tier cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others [4][29] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - In the first four months of the year, 20 out of 30 representative cities saw an increase in the proportion of residential units over 120 square meters sold, with cities like Nanjing and Qingdao showing increases exceeding 8% [4][27] - New home prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.90% month-on-month in May, while second-tier cities saw a slight increase of 0.06% [4][27] - The report indicates that the recovery in the real estate market will gradually expand from specific points to a broader area, potentially leading to a valuation recovery for the sector [29] Construction Materials Market Overview - National cement production from January to April 2025 was 495 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2010 [5][47] - The report highlights that the cement industry is undergoing significant capacity reduction and is pushing for energy-saving and green transformation [6][49] - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from increased fiscal spending and the issuance of special bonds, which will support demand for construction materials [51] Key Data and Trends - The report notes that the total amount of special bonds planned for issuance in June across 25 regions is approximately 885.64 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 469.49 billion yuan [51] - The construction materials sector has seen a slight increase in prices, with the average cement price at 339 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous week [36][41] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the cement industry, such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and overseas expansion [6][50]

Core Insights - On May 27, three real estate projects in Shanghai experienced rapid sales, indicating strong demand in the market [1] - The BUND98 project in Yangpu sold all 223 units on the first day, with an average selling price of 126,400 RMB per square meter [1] - The Junyun Jinmao Mansion in Putuo sold 1.45 billion RMB worth of units within 36 minutes of its launch, showcasing the high demand for properties in prime locations [1] Market Trends - There is a concentrated demand for improved housing in high-quality, core areas such as Xuhui, Huangpu, and Lujiazui [1] - Not all projects in the main urban areas are experiencing the same level of sales success, indicating a selective market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate "de-inventory" strategy is primarily driven by the reversal of supply-demand dynamics and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing and an extended inventory digestion cycle [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current real estate cycle has seen a significant change in supply-demand relationships, officially entering a de-inventory phase as of July 2023, with over 30 months of continuous decline in sales volume and price [2][4]. - The scale of housing and inventory in this cycle is larger compared to previous downturns, with substantial monetary and fiscal policy support already in place since 2024 [2][4]. Group 2: Policy and Quality Improvement - The focus of housing development has shifted from mere availability to quality, with government initiatives aimed at increasing the supply of "good houses" and enhancing construction standards [2][3]. - New national standards for residential projects, effective from March 31, 2025, will enforce stricter requirements on various aspects of housing construction, leading to improved quality in new residential buildings [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and a good grasp of improvement-oriented customer demand, such as Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [1][4]. - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and New City Holdings, are also highlighted [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4].

Group 1 - The supply-demand relationship has changed, leading to a prolonged decline in both volume and price in the current real estate cycle. The central government has officially entered a destocking cycle as of July 2023, with significant policy support and a longer duration of declining sales data compared to previous cycles [2][7][26] - The concept of "good houses" has emerged, shifting the focus from mere availability to quality. The government has emphasized increasing the supply of quality housing, with new standards set to enhance residential construction requirements [2][31][35] Group 2 - The real estate market is transitioning from "having" to "quality," with increasing demand for improved housing conditions. Data from the 2020 census shows an average of 3.18 rooms per household and 37.76 square meters per person, indicating progress in housing quality [3][45] - The aging of existing housing stock, primarily built between 1990 and 2014, is expected to drive ongoing replacement and upgrading demand as homeowners seek better living conditions [3][46] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with strong credit ratings that can cater to improving customer needs, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development. Additionally, firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are highlighted [4][60][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - A new round of residential product iteration is underway, with "Fourth Generation Housing" leading the stabilization of prices. The concept of "Good Housing" has been included in the government work report for the first time in 2025, with specific construction standards defined by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [3][11]. - The potential for improvement in housing demand is accelerating, with an estimated average annual improvement demand of 590 million square meters from 2025 to 2030, corresponding to a market value of approximately 8 trillion yuan [3][38]. - Historical reviews of the automotive and smartphone industries indicate that product iterations can stabilize demand and improve profitability, suggesting similar trends may occur in the housing market [3][6]. Summary by Sections New Round of Residential Product Iteration - The introduction of "Fourth Generation Housing" is expected to stabilize prices and create a pricing benchmark in the market. This is crucial as the market has been experiencing a downward price spiral due to a lack of price anchors [3][27]. - The government has emphasized the need for high-quality housing, shifting the focus from mere availability to quality, safety, comfort, and sustainability [11][13]. Acceleration of Improvement Demand - The report estimates that the average annual improvement demand will increase by 60.8% to 941 million square meters from previous estimates, driven by the promotion of "Good Housing" [3][41]. - The current market conditions indicate that the top 30 real estate companies' sales only account for 27.5% of the projected improvement demand, highlighting significant growth potential for quality real estate firms [3][6]. Historical Review and Comparison - The report draws parallels between the housing market and the automotive/smartphone industries, suggesting that product iterations can lead to market restructuring and improved sales stability [3][6]. - The report notes that while the costs of Fourth Generation Housing may be higher, the potential for higher profit margins exists due to increased product value and shorter return cycles [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate companies with low historical burdens, optimized inventory structures, and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and Greentown China [3][6]. - It also recommends monitoring companies in related sectors, including brokerage and property management, which may benefit from the ongoing market changes [3][6].