本报记者陈潇 临近年末，多地集中推出核心地段宅地。克而瑞数据显示，12月份，22个重点城市计划出让125宗涉宅 地块，起拍总价达1723亿元，供地力度明显加大。 12月1日，宁波慈溪市迎来久违土拍，其中观海卫地块很受市场青睐，最终由地方民企中慈国际建设集 团有限公司竞得，溢价率为9.63%。义乌同日亦成功出让一宗宅地，由近期新成立的民营房企义乌市长 利置业有限公司以总价3.28亿元竞得，溢价率21.42%。 12月2日，多地土拍市场再现火热景象。在湖北襄阳，一宗低密住宅地块经多轮竞价，最终由襄阳市汉 成润泽置业有限公司以总价约2.03亿元竞得，溢价率17.5%。同日，武汉5宗地块出让，其中常青板块2 宗住宅地块被民营企业武汉鼎源房地产开发有限公司竞得，溢价率均超6%。 12月3日，温州瑞安市一宗高品质住宅地块成功出让。该地块经过58轮激烈竞价，由民营房企瑞安中瑞 房地产集团有限公司（以下简称"瑞安地产"）以总价3.99亿元竞得，成交楼面价6574元/平方米，溢价率 16.97%。 值得一提的是，11月份也有多家房企积极拿地。例如，北京懋源璟鸿房地产开发有限公司在北京朝阳拿 地；杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司在杭 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai new housing market in 2025 shows volatility, with initial low demand and sales, followed by a rebound from February to April, and a subsequent decline from May to September[1] - The market is characterized by structural differentiation, with some projects achieving a subscription rate of 283% while others have a sales rate of only 53% over 15 months[1] Policy Environment - The demand-side policy adjustments include the reduction of the outer ring purchase restrictions and down payment ratios, aiming to stimulate demand in the outer ring areas, where the transaction area share decreased from 71% in 2022 to 65% in 2025[5][7] - The supply-side policy focuses on enhancing housing quality through 17 specific regulations, shifting market competition from price to quality[6] Demand Characteristics - The demand for larger units (90-120 sqm and 120-140 sqm) is prominent, with the 120-140 sqm category peaking at 36.4% in July 2025[8][12] - The supply-demand mismatch is evident, particularly for three-bedroom units in various districts, with negative mismatch indices indicating a shortage[9] Sales Drivers for Hot Projects - Successful projects align closely with market demand, such as a project in Pudong focusing on 88-110 sqm three-bedroom units, achieving a subscription rate of 283%[14] - Competitive pricing strategies are employed, with projects priced below the average market rate to attract price-sensitive buyers[16] Challenges for Slow-Selling Projects - Misalignment of product offerings with market demand, such as a high-end project offering smaller units that do not meet the needs of improvement-seeking families, resulting in a 53% sales rate[23] - Insufficient competitive pricing and lack of appealing features contribute to slow sales, with some projects priced higher than competing offerings without corresponding value[24] Recommendations for Improvement - Projects should focus on precise market positioning and optimize unit designs to enhance appeal, such as increasing usable space and improving layout[29] - Implementing differentiated pricing strategies and enhancing marketing efforts can help improve sales performance and customer engagement[30][31]

Core Insights - The overall trend in the real estate market shows a decline in new residential property prices across 70 major cities in October, with some cities like Shanghai, Urumqi, Hangzhou, and Hefei experiencing price increases [1][2][3] - The analysis indicates that first-tier cities are stabilizing while second-tier cities show internal differentiation, and third and fourth-tier cities are under overall pressure [1][3] New Housing Market - In October, new residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai seeing a 0.3% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new housing prices rose by 5.7%, contrasting with declines in Beijing (2.0%), Guangzhou (4.2%), and Shenzhen (2.6%) [2][3] - The demand for improved housing, particularly in the 90 to 144 square meter range, is identified as a core support for transactions [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - In October, second-hand residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, with Beijing seeing a 1.1% decline [4] - Year-on-year, second-hand prices in first-tier cities decreased, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 4.7%, 3.4%, 6.4%, and 3.3% respectively [4] - The market for second-hand homes is under pressure, but the willingness of owners to significantly reduce prices is decreasing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [5] Market Outlook - The market is expected to show characteristics of "stable volume and weak prices" with ongoing differentiation as policies are strengthened and developers push for year-end performance [1][3] - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for inventory reduction and boosting housing consumption, with a focus on enhancing market activity and confidence [3]

Core Viewpoint - In October, housing prices in major cities across China showed a downward trend both month-on-month and year-on-year, with only a few cities experiencing price increases [1][2]. New Housing Market - In October, new residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai seeing a 0.3% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [1][2]. - Six cities reported month-on-month price increases, with Shanghai leading at 0.3% [2]. - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a 0.8% decrease in new housing prices, with Shanghai increasing by 5.7% [1][2]. Second-hand Housing Market - In first-tier cities, second-hand housing prices decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][5]. - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a 4.4% decrease in second-hand housing prices, with the decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of differentiation, with first-tier cities stabilizing while second-tier cities see a slight decrease in price declines [5][6]. - The increase in second-hand housing listings indicates a continued supply pressure, with a 1.4% rise in listings across 14 key cities [5][6]. - The overall market is characterized by "stable volume and weak prices," with expectations for a year-end increase in transaction volume despite price pressures [6]. Future Outlook - The new housing market is expected to maintain a trend of increased transactions in November and December, with a potential year-end surge in activity [6]. - The second-hand housing market may continue to face downward pressure on prices, but signs of stabilization are emerging as the willingness of sellers to significantly reduce prices decreases [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the demand for improved housing in first-tier cities remains stable, with new residential prices for 90-144m² properties showing optimal stability month-on-month [1] - In first-tier cities, the proportion of house-hunting for 90-120m² units is 29%, while for 120-140m² units it is 21.1%, highlighting that improved demand is a key support for transactions [1] - There is still downward pressure on housing prices in smaller cities with high inventory, where the inventory digestion cycle exceeds 20 months, leading to a month-on-month decline in new home prices due to developers' strategies to boost sales through price reductions [1] Group 2 - Overall, the trend of stabilization in core first-tier areas, differentiation in second-tier cities, and pressure in third and fourth-tier cities remains unchanged [2] - In November and December, with increased policy support and year-end pushes from developers, the market is expected to show characteristics of "stable volume, weak prices, and ongoing differentiation" [2] - The transaction volume for second-hand homes is expected to remain stable compared to October, particularly in core cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, where both volume and price are likely to stabilize [2]

Core Insights - The Ningbo real estate market is experiencing a significant divergence, with new homes showing signs of recovery while the second-hand market remains sluggish [5][7][12] Market Dynamics - New home transactions in Ningbo have seen a slight increase, with 68 units sold on November 5, 2025, marking a 25.9% rise from the previous day [5] - In contrast, the second-hand home market is struggling, with only 214 units sold on the same day, reflecting an 8.9% decrease [7] - Cumulatively, new home sales for the month reached 242 units, down 34.4% from the previous period, while second-hand sales plummeted by 48.4% to 751 units [7] Price Trends - The average listing price for second-hand homes in Ningbo has dropped to 18,800 CNY per square meter, a decrease of 8.67% [8] - The average total price for second-hand homes is now 2.27 million CNY, indicating a broader downward trend in property values [8] Market Sentiment - Comments from netizens reflect a sense of resignation among homeowners regarding the declining asset values, with sentiments indicating a shift in market expectations [9][11] - The prevailing attitude suggests that many are accepting the current market conditions as a new norm [11] New Home Market Characteristics - The new home market is characterized by stable prices despite a decrease in transaction volume, with an average price of 33,582 CNY per square meter [12] - High-end improvement projects are performing well, while entry-level products face significant challenges [12][14] Regional Variations - There are notable disparities in performance across different districts in Ningbo, with the Beilun district seeing a 164% increase in new home sales due to favorable policies [15] - Conversely, the Yinzhou district has experienced a 13% decline, highlighting the structural adjustments within the market [15] Inventory and Supply - As of early November, the inventory of second-hand homes in Ningbo reached 92,058 units, indicating ongoing pressure on prices [17] - The market is expected to continue adjusting, with developers likely to adopt strategies to manage supply effectively [18] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the Ningbo real estate market is in a bottoming phase, with new home sales showing signs of stabilization [18] - The focus on improvement-type demand and product innovation is anticipated to drive future market recovery [18]

Core Insights - The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" real estate cycle is nearing its end, with high customer viewing volumes maintained in various districts of Beijing, particularly in the secondary housing market [1][3] - The influx of new homes delivered in the past year has increased the supply of "new second-hand" homes, providing buyers with more options and enhancing market activity [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The secondary housing market is experiencing a surge in the availability of new second-hand homes, particularly in areas like Daxing, where recent new home deliveries have led to an increase in listings [3][4] - New second-hand homes, characterized by better layouts and facilities, are becoming a competitive alternative to older properties, which constitute over 50% of the listings in Beijing [3][4] Group 2: Buyer Preferences - Buyers are increasingly favoring new second-hand homes due to their modern features and lower risk of aging compared to older properties, which may lose value as they age [4][6] - The demand for new second-hand homes is particularly strong among buyers looking to upgrade their living conditions, as these properties often meet their needs for space and quality [7][9] Group 3: Service Enhancements - Real estate agencies are improving their services to adapt to changing buyer behaviors, such as offering car services for property viewings to counteract the impact of colder weather on buyer enthusiasm [9][10] - Enhanced service quality is expected to increase viewing volumes and improve market conditions, potentially leading to shorter transaction cycles and more stable pricing [9][10]

Market Overview - The real estate market is experiencing a significant divide, with major cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing high land auction prices, while many third and fourth-tier cities struggle with unsold inventory [3][4] - National statistics indicate a slight increase in new residential sales in key cities, with a 0.1% rise in sales area and a 2% increase in sales revenue from January to April 2025 [3] Demand Shift - There is a notable shift in demand structure, with the proportion of improved housing types (120-144 square meters) in key cities rising to 30%, and exceeding 50% in cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu [4][7] - The main buyers have transitioned from first-time homebuyers to those seeking improved living conditions, focusing more on location, quality, and amenities rather than price sensitivity [7] Policy Response - Since 2025, at least 66 provinces and cities have implemented 124 market stabilization policies, including lowering down payment requirements and offering tax incentives for upgrading homes [7][12] - The central government has allocated 4.4 trillion yuan for local government special bonds, aimed at land acquisition and stock housing purchases, which is expected to facilitate the absorption of 2 billion square meters of housing stock [7][12] Industry Transformation - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the need for "safe, comfortable, green, and smart" housing, shifting the focus from mere availability to quality [9][10] - Developers are increasingly pressured to enhance product quality, with new standards for sound insulation, energy efficiency, and smart home features being introduced [10] Competitive Landscape - The changing market environment is prompting a deep adjustment among real estate companies, with a 13.9% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [12] - Top 100 real estate firms are focusing their land acquisition budgets on high-quality plots in core cities, indicating a strategic shift towards refined operations and differentiated product offerings [12] Buyer Strategy - In a divided market, homebuyers need to adopt more precise strategies, with core urban areas remaining relatively safe for self-use purchases due to strong industrial support and infrastructure [14] - Investors are advised to exercise caution, as the era of broad price increases has ended, necessitating careful evaluation of opportunities and risks based on genuine needs and financial capacity [14]

Core Insights - The eighth batch of land auctions in Shanghai for 2025 concluded on October 20, with a total of 6 plots offered, resulting in a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan, with 3 plots sold at a premium and 3 at the base price [1] - The premium rates for the sold plots were all below 20%, indicating a rational return in the current real estate market amid deep adjustments [1][2] - Major developers such as China Overseas, Poly Developments, and China Merchants Shekou participated in the auction, reflecting the strong demand for scarce land in core cities [1][2] Auction Performance - The total land area offered was 408,700 square meters, with residential land accounting for approximately 305,100 square meters, and the final transaction price was 7.47% higher than the starting price [2] - Notable highlights included record-breaking prices for residential plots in Xuhui, Jing'an, and Yangpu districts, with the highest floor price reaching 148,500 yuan per square meter [3] - The highest premium rate was recorded at 14.69% for the Yangpu plot, indicating a strategic approach by developers to replenish land reserves and leverage resource advantages [2][3] Market Dynamics - There is a clear "cold-hot" differentiation in the auction results, with core urban areas experiencing fierce competition while peripheral areas saw plots sold at base prices [4] - The participation of over 20 companies, primarily state-owned enterprises and local investment platforms, indicates a cautious approach to non-core area investments [4][5] - The return of the Binjiang Group to the Shanghai land market after ten years highlights an increase in private enterprise participation, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [6][7] Policy Impact - The recent "good housing" policy has optimized land sale indicators, removing the requirement for a proportion of small units, aligning with the current market demand for improved housing [6][7] - The cancellation of the minimum ratio for small units marks a significant policy breakthrough, allowing market supply and demand to dictate product sizes [7][8] - The trend towards product upgrades is evident, with developers focusing on high-end residential offerings and innovative designs to meet the evolving market demands [9][10]

Core Insights - The recent land auction in Shanghai for 2025 saw a total of 6 plots, with 3 sold at a premium and 3 at the base price, totaling 198.77 billion yuan, indicating a rational return in the real estate market amidst deep adjustments [1][4] - The auction highlighted a clear "hot and cold" differentiation in land value, with premium sales reflecting strong demand for core urban areas while peripheral plots sold at base prices, showcasing cautious investment behavior from developers [2][4] Summary by Sections Auction Performance - 6 plots were auctioned, with a total area of 408,700 square meters, of which 305,100 square meters were residential, resulting in a final sale price that was 7.47% above the starting price, indicating a controlled overall premium level [2][4] - Key highlights included record-breaking prices for residential plots in Xuhui, Jing'an, and Yangpu districts, with the highest floor price reaching 148,500 yuan per square meter [3][4] Developer Participation - Over 20 major real estate companies participated, including China Overseas, Poly Developments, and China Merchants Shekou, reflecting a competitive landscape for prime land [1][4] - The auction saw a trend of joint bidding among developers, particularly in core areas, as firms seek to mitigate risks and leverage combined strengths [5][6] Market Dynamics - The auction results indicate a shift in investment focus towards core urban areas, with significant competition for high-value plots, while peripheral areas experienced lower interest and only single bids [4][5] - The recent policy changes, including the removal of minimum ratios for small housing units, align with the market's shift towards improvement-driven demand, allowing developers to better target high-end products [6][7] Future Outlook - The trend towards product upgrades is evident, with developers expected to focus on high-end residential offerings in prime locations, while also adapting to market demands in emerging areas [8] - The cautious return of private enterprises like Binhai Group to the auction scene signals a potential increase in market participation if sales continue to improve, suggesting a more dynamic future for Shanghai's real estate market [6][8]