02 真实的市场，只有真实经历过才知道。看数据、和朋友聊，还是问业内，都得不出一二。最真实的感 受，只有亲自感受过，才知道根本。 所以，我把自己的一套房子挂牌了。最后，大概两个月时间，也算顺利卖掉了。 首先和大家聊聊对上海楼市的真实感受。这种感受或许是片面的，但这却是这两个月时间，我看到的一 套房子在市场里的完整经过。一些直观的感受，还是很值得和大家分享。 01 现在市场上有购买力、又有购买意愿的客户真的很少。其实整个楼市不好已经有两年了，但是现在的不 好，和过去两年的楼市不好，还是有本质性区别。以前的楼市不好叫：市场需要以价换量。这句话什么 意思？卖房子必须要降价。但是大家很多时候都忽略了另一句潜台词：起码降价了，房子是能卖得掉 的。 我们来看今年。今年面临的情况是：可能简单的降价，也不能推动客户购买。用我自家小区来说，一直 是区域内的成交大盘。去年卖了68套，前年卖了72套。小区门口不少中介门店，都是他们各自品牌的销 冠门店。就这么一个淡市下依然受市场认可的楼盘，今年到现在已经11月了，整个小区到现在为止只卖 了33套。成交可以说完全的冷冻。 前两年小区一直很热销，就是因为房价一直在降。所有接盘的客户觉得 ...

这篇经济评论分析2025年上半年，上海持续落实好"沪九条""沪七条"等各项政策措施，政策效应继续释放，房地产市场发生了哪些变化，普通人应该怎么选 择，还能入手吗？ | 种类 | 楼盘名称 | 所在板块 | 1 1 + 成交套数 | 平均成交总价 | 成交均价 | 平均成交面积 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (套) | (亿元) | (万元/平) | (元) | | | 海泰北外滩 | 四川北路 | 2 | 1.2 | 19.38 | 619.77 | | | 融创外滩壹号院 | 黄浦滨江 | 2 | 1.18 | 22.13 | 533.22 | | 大平层 | 云锦东方二期 | 徐汇龙华 | 1 | 1.00 | 12.82 | 783.16 | | | 翠湖天地六期 | 新天地 | 19 | 1.52 | 23.55 | 645.42 | | | 上海壹号院三批次 | 黄浦像元 | 1 | 1.58 | 24.65 | 642.26 | | | 滨江凯旋门三期 | 陆家嘴 | J | 1.12 | 30.22 | 369.10 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market experienced a 9.35% decline in second-hand home transactions in October, while new high-end projects gained attention, indicating a divergence in market activity [1][5][11] New Home Market - In October, 11,102 new homes were sold, showing a slight decrease from September, but not a drastic drop, reflecting a hesitant market [3][11] - The Huangpu District emerged as the top performer in terms of both transaction area and total price during the week of October 20-26, with a transaction area of 20,200 square meters and a total price of 4.225 billion yuan, accounting for 15.99% and 36.11% of the city's totals, respectively [3][11] Policy Impact - The "8·25 New Policy" implemented on August 25 relaxed purchase restrictions outside the outer ring, leading to a surge in new home transactions in that area, which accounted for 73.45% of total sales in the month following the policy [5][11] Second-Hand Home Market - The total number of second-hand homes sold in October was 18,483, reflecting a 9.35% decrease from September, influenced by the National Day holiday which reduced effective trading days [5][11] - Despite the decline in total transactions, the average daily sales increased from 680 in September to 754 in October, indicating underlying market activity [5][11] Pricing Trends - Approximately 80% of the homes sold had transaction prices at least 5% lower than their listing prices, suggesting that sellers are more willing to negotiate [7][11] - The demand for homes priced below 5 million yuan remains strong, while high-end properties in core areas have limited negotiation space, with price adjustments between 3% to 5% [7][9] Market Segmentation - There is a growing divide between the outer and core areas, with noticeable price reductions in the outer regions while core areas maintain relative price stability due to resource scarcity and location advantages [9][11] - The market is not uniformly hot or cold; rather, it reflects a nuanced landscape where high-quality projects continue to perform well despite broader market challenges [13]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in housing prices across major cities in China, particularly in Shanghai, where the average listing price has dropped by approximately 13.6% over the past year, with many neighborhoods experiencing even steeper declines [1][4][6]. Price Trends - In September, 91% of Shanghai's neighborhoods have reduced their listing prices, marking a historical high for price adjustments [1]. - The average listing price in Shanghai has decreased by 13% over the past year, with a notable drop beginning in April after a brief spike in March [1][4]. Regional Analysis - The decline in housing prices varies significantly by administrative district, with areas like Pudong experiencing the largest drops, while districts such as Xuhui and Huangpu show more resilience [5][6]. - The most affected areas include Baoshan, with a drop of 23.84%, and Pudong, which has seen declines of up to 23.28% [5][6]. Specific Neighborhood Performance - Specific neighborhoods in Pudong have seen drastic price reductions, with some listings dropping by as much as 44% [10][12]. - In contrast, older properties in Puxi have also faced declines, but the percentage drop is generally lower compared to Pudong [9][12]. Market Sentiment - The articles suggest a growing willingness among homeowners to lower prices as market pressures increase, particularly in neighborhoods that previously resisted price drops [1][6]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while the market is experiencing a downturn, certain areas, particularly in the emerging districts like Lingang, may offer better long-term prospects due to population influx and government incentives [20][22].

Core Insights - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is experiencing a unique phenomenon where 91% of neighborhoods have seen a decrease in listing prices, yet transaction volumes have surged to over 18,000 units, indicating a potential market recovery [1][5][10] Price Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in various cities have continued to decline month-on-month, with first-tier cities seeing a 1.0% drop in second-hand residential prices [3][10] - In September, the average listing price in Shanghai's neighborhoods fell by 13.6% over the past year, with a notable acceleration in price reductions since the second half of 2025 [5][6] Transaction Dynamics - Despite the decline in listing prices, the transaction volume in Shanghai's second-hand market increased by 3% month-on-month in September, with 45% of neighborhoods experiencing a rise in transaction prices [1][5] - The bargaining space in the second-hand market has narrowed from 19% in August to 15%, indicating a convergence in price expectations between buyers and sellers [5][16] Demand Drivers - The core driver for the stabilization of housing prices in Shanghai is the demand from first-time homebuyers, particularly following the "8.25" policy adjustments that have relaxed purchasing restrictions and improved financing options [6][9] - In September, 47% of neighborhoods catering to first-time buyers saw a month-on-month increase in prices, reflecting a growing confidence among this demographic [6][10] Regional Variations - The transaction volume in September was notably high in districts such as Jinshan and Fengxian, with properties priced under 2 million yuan accounting for 46.56% of total transactions, marking a 2.79 percentage point increase [7][8] - There are significant disparities in price movements across different districts, with some areas experiencing price declines while others see increases, highlighting the fragmented nature of the current market [11][12][14] Market Outlook - The ongoing changes in the real estate market suggest a shift from a nationwide price increase trend to a new normal characterized by differentiation and localized opportunities [10][14] - The future performance of mid-to-high-end properties will largely depend on new listings and the availability of quality new housing products in the market [13]

Core Insights - In 2021, Shanghai implemented a "points system" for the sale of commercial housing, imposing a five-year sales restriction on properties with a subscription rate exceeding 130% [1] - An estimated 125,000 new homes will be released from restrictions in Shanghai between 2026 and 2028, with approximately 32,400 units expected to enter the market in 2026 [2] - The release of these restricted properties is not evenly distributed, with significant concentrations in areas such as Lingang, Xujing, and Tangzhen [3] Market Dynamics - The current Shanghai real estate market is experiencing structural differentiation, contrasting with the previous market frenzy when the sales restriction policy was introduced [5] - Luxury property prices in core areas continue to rise, while inventory in suburban regions is accumulating; the secondary housing market is shifting towards "price for volume" strategies [6] Regional Analysis - The Dahongqiao area, particularly Xujing, will see a significant increase in listings, with about 10,800 units expected to be released in 2026, alongside 16,000 new homes [8] - Lingang, as a core area of the free trade zone, has seen most of its restricted properties acquired by talent, but new home sales are now reliant on discounts and promotions [10] - Core districts like Huangpu and Jing'an will have around 3,769 units released, which is only 11% of the total, indicating that even with the release, the price structure is unlikely to be affected [11] Market Projections - The release of properties in certain areas may double the number of listings, potentially pressuring landlords to lower prices for quicker transactions [12] - Despite the anticipated release of 32,400 units, the overall market is projected to maintain a "volume increase, price stability" trend, with secondary home transactions expected to reach 280,000 units in 2025 [12] - Shanghai has proactively implemented policies to stimulate demand ahead of the supply increase, including easing purchase restrictions and increasing loan limits, aiming to release approximately 150,000 potential homebuyer demands [12]

Core Insights - In September, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai continued to grow both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the market and the effectiveness of policy measures [1] Transaction Volume - In September, Shanghai's second-hand residential transactions reached 17,723 units, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to September, the transaction volume increased by 16.9% year-on-year [1] Price Trends - In September, the price of second-hand residential properties in Shanghai fell by 0.48% month-on-month, remaining stable compared to the previous month (August recorded a decline of 0.49%) [1] - Year-on-year, the price decreased by 3.85% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, Shanghai's real estate market showed a unique pattern of "price reduction promoting transactions, and stable prices in transactions," driven by a significant increase in new home sales and a high percentage of price reductions in listings [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of new home transactions in Shanghai surged by 49% month-on-month in September, which boosted the activity in the second-hand housing market [3]. - Over 91% of neighborhoods in Shanghai saw a decrease in listing prices, with an average decline of 13.6% over the past year [4][5]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes exceeded 18,000 units in September, marking a 3% increase from the previous month, with 45% of neighborhoods experiencing a rise in transaction prices [3][6]. Group 2: Price Trends - The number of neighborhoods with rising transaction prices increased by 21% in September, indicating a recovery in market activity [6]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes narrowed to 15%, the lowest level since 2024, reflecting a more stable buyer sentiment [10]. - Among different types of neighborhoods, 47% of essential demand neighborhoods saw price increases, compared to 42% in improvement neighborhoods, highlighting the strength of essential demand in stabilizing prices [14]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The price distribution among neighborhoods displayed a "vertical olive shape," indicating significant price differentiation and uncertainty in future price trends [18]. - Certain districts, such as Nanchiao and Jinshan, showed over 60% of high-frequency trading neighborhoods with price declines, while others like Gongfu Gongkang had over 60% with price increases, emphasizing the fragmented nature of the market [18].

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing significant divergence, with new homes showing signs of recovery while the second-hand market faces a downturn [1][4]. New Home Market - During the National Day holiday, the average daily transaction area for new homes in Shanghai increased by 3% compared to last year, totaling 17,300 square meters [1]. - The outer ring areas are becoming the main transaction zones, with Yangpu District leading with nearly 4,000 square meters sold, followed by Pudong with around 3,000 square meters [1]. - Developers are actively promoting sales, with Poly Developments Shanghai attracting over 4,000 customer visits and achieving sales of 1.28 billion yuan during the holiday [2]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home market in Shanghai is struggling, with only 780 transactions during the holiday, averaging 111 per day, a decline of over 63% from 2,133 transactions in the same period last year [4]. - The market is characterized by increased negotiation between buyers and sellers, leading to a challenging environment for transactions [1]. Market Outlook - The current market shows increasing differentiation, not only between new and second-hand homes but also across different regions and product types [4]. - Analysts express cautious optimism for October, anticipating that favorable policies and seasonal sales may lead to improved transaction volumes for new homes compared to last year [4]. - There is an expectation for structural improvements in the second-hand market due to price reductions on some urgent sales, although significant increases in transaction volume are unlikely due to the new home market's influence [4][5].

Core Insights - The real estate market in Shanghai experienced a mixed performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with new housing projects seeing increased visitor numbers and sales, while the second-hand housing market remained sluggish [2][9][12]. New Housing Market - During the holiday period from October 1 to October 8, several new housing projects launched promotional activities, leading to a notable increase in customer visits and sales [4][12]. - Poly Developments reported over 4,000 customer visits and a sales volume of 1.28 billion yuan across 11 projects during the holiday [4]. - The "Zhaoshang Shidai Chaopai" project successfully sold 16 units despite a lower than usual visitor count, averaging over 40 groups of customers daily [4][5]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a significant decline, with only 780 transactions recorded during the holiday, a drop of over 63% compared to the same period in 2024 [9][10]. - The average daily transaction volume was only 111 units, indicating a continued cautious sentiment among buyers [9][10]. - Year-to-date data shows that the second-hand housing market remains resilient, with a total of 191,000 transactions from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [9][12]. Market Trends and Outlook - The new housing market is expected to maintain a cautious optimism for the fourth quarter, driven by the recent policy changes and an increase in new project supply [12][14]. - The "Hushi Liu Tiao" policy introduced in August has positively impacted the market, leading to a significant increase in new housing transactions in September [12][14]. - Analysts suggest that while the second-hand market is currently weak, the overall market is in a phase of stabilization, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the near future [14][15].