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甘李药业(603087):甘李药业2024年报&2025年一季报点评:国内外双轮驱动,创新管线有序推进
Orient Securities· 2025-05-14 07:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 59.21 CNY based on a 31x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance with a projected revenue growth of 38.0% in 2025, reaching 4.202 billion CNY, and a net profit growth of 87.1%, amounting to 1.15 billion CNY [4][9]. - The domestic formulation business is experiencing rapid growth driven by both volume and price increases, with Q1 2025 domestic revenue reaching 8.6 billion CNY, up 80.9% year-on-year [9]. - The company is advancing its innovative product pipeline, with significant progress in international markets, including successful clinical trials and product launches [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 2.608 billion CNY - 2024: 3.045 billion CNY (growth of 16.8%) - 2025: 4.202 billion CNY (growth of 38.0%) - 2026: 5.181 billion CNY (growth of 23.3%) - 2027: 6.115 billion CNY (growth of 18.0%) [4][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 340 million CNY - 2024: 615 million CNY (growth of 80.7%) - 2025: 1.15 billion CNY (growth of 87.1%) - 2026: 1.445 billion CNY (growth of 25.6%) - 2027: 1.709 billion CNY (growth of 18.3%) [4][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.57 CNY - 2024: 1.02 CNY - 2025: 1.91 CNY - 2026: 2.40 CNY - 2027: 2.84 CNY [4][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 73.3% in 2023 to 78.7% in 2025 - Net Margin: Expected to rise from 13.0% in 2023 to 27.4% in 2025 [4][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE Ratio: Expected to decrease from 90.1 in 2023 to 26.7 in 2025 - PB Ratio: Expected to decrease from 2.9 in 2023 to 2.5 in 2025 [4][11]