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宏观经济深度报告:全球变局(2):“广场协议”再现?
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-28 15:01
Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The recent intervention in the yen's depreciation is not a repeat of the Plaza Accord but rather a re-pricing of assets under Japan's fiscal narrative[1] - The yen's decline has been accompanied by a rare simultaneous weakening of Japanese government bonds, driven by ineffective interest rate differentials and fiscal expansion expectations[1][3] - The Japanese government's strong fiscal narrative has led to increased government bond issuance and short-term debt supply pressure, resulting in rising interest rates[1][6] Group 2: US-Japan Cooperation - A coordinated effort between the US and Japan to stabilize the yen is seen as a "Nash equilibrium" to avoid significant selling pressure on US Treasuries[2] - If the US does not intervene, Japan's strategy would likely involve selling US Treasuries to stabilize the yen, which would exert significant downward pressure on US bonds[2][30] - The US's intervention aims to manage expectations rather than implement a substantial revaluation of the currency, focusing on stabilizing the Japanese yen[20][34] Group 3: Future Asset Pricing - Asset prices are entering a re-pricing window, with the yen expected to remain weak but potentially stabilize in a range due to political constraints and market pressures[3][34] - The long-term support for the US dollar is influenced by geopolitical factors and resource security, while short-term movements are constrained by Federal Reserve policies[3][37] - Resource commodities are undergoing a systemic re-evaluation, with both nominal and real values expected to rise due to a weak dollar and geopolitical tensions[3][42]