证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 1 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Let the future tell the truth, and evaluate each one according to his work and accomplishments. —Nikola Tesla 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2026 年 01 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《开年话躁动——总量"创"辩第 119 期》 2026-01-06 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 57 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 56 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-15 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 55 期：美联储继续降 息，同时重启扩表——12 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 ...

Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant decline of 4.4% after reaching a historical high, influenced by profit-taking and a stronger dollar[3] - Silver prices saw increased volatility, with fluctuations exceeding 5% in the first three trading days of the week, leading to an 8.4% drop due to margin increases by the CME[3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.7% amid expectations of oversupply in the global market[3] Geopolitical Events - Notable geopolitical "black swan" events occurred, including an attack on Putin's residence, escalating protests in Iran due to high inflation, and a U.S. airstrike in Venezuela resulting in the arrest of President Maduro[3] - The impact of these geopolitical uncertainties on commodity prices remains to be observed, with ongoing monitoring of global geopolitical developments[3] U.S. Economic Indicators - The December FOMC meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements on future monetary policy, with some officials advocating for rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected[4] - U.S. existing home sales in November fell by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating continued weakness in the real estate market[4] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index dropped to -10.9, reflecting a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[4] Eurozone Economic Performance - Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December was revised down to 48.8, indicating accelerated contraction and falling below market expectations[5] - The euro depreciated by 0.4% against the dollar, influenced by weak manufacturing data[5] - Major stock indices in Europe saw modest gains, with the Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC indices rising by 1.8%, 0.8%, and 1.1% respectively[5]

宽松预期、供给紧张、地缘风险等多方面因素共同推升金银铜等金属价格连续创下 新高，人民币汇率在企业结汇潮的推动下破 7。关注美联储主席最终提名的揭晓。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现： 美国经济： 欧洲经济： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.29 2025-12-29 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 研 究 报 告 报 证 券 上周（2025.12.22-2025.12.26），全球大类资产价格中，主要经 济体股市上涨。其中，日经 225 指数上涨 2.5%，上证指数上涨 1.9%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 1.7%，标普 500 指数上涨 1.4%， 发达市场股票指数上涨 1.1%，恒生指数上涨 0.5%。 大宗商品普遍上涨。其中，COMEX 铜上涨 6.7%，伦敦金现上涨 4.4%，南华商品指数上涨 4.0%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨 1.6%， IPE 布油期货上涨 0.4%。 债市方面，10 年期美债收益率及中债总全价指数较前一周维持 不变，国内 10Y 国债 ...

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 核心观点 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季躁动"期间，全球权益资产胜率赔率均有所提升，铜、油年内主要涨幅由"春季躁动"同期贡献，黄金更易在Q2-Q4的 其他时间段走出独立行情；4）全球股市与中国资产春季躁动的强共振 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses a significant shift in the pricing paradigm of major assets, characterized by a "K-shaped divergence" where traditional macroeconomic anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of asset prices from economic fundamentals [4][10][37] - The report quantifies the extent of K-shaped divergence, revealing that the S&P 500 has deviated by approximately 141% from employment data, while gold has shown an extreme deviation of over 400%, indicating a fundamental shift from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase [4][20][37] - The analysis highlights the relationship between interest rates, copper, and gold, noting that since 2022, the nominal interest rates have diverged significantly from implied rates derived from copper and gold, with a maximum gap of 660 basis points [4][38][41] Group 2 - The report introduces a unique "gold coordinate system" perspective, suggesting that in this framework, the S&P 500 aligns more closely with employment data, indicating that the stock market has transformed into a "gold-like" asset that hedges against currency depreciation [4][42][46] - The analysis of various asset models shows that the extreme divergence of the S&P 500 and gold reflects a deep-seated fiscal risk premium embedded in asset prices, with a notable 600 basis point gap between actual interest rates and implied equilibrium rates [4][59][54] - The report outlines potential macro paths for the future evolution of K-shaped divergence, including scenarios of moderate recovery, inflationary pressures leading to political shocks, and recessionary pathways, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding mid-term recession risks [4][61][69]

Group 1 - The report indicates a continued trend of "loose monetary policy + credit easing," with a low risk of tightening in the funding environment, which supports macroeconomic and asset performance [1][13][19] - In October, China's new social financing was 816.1 billion yuan, lower than the expected 1,537.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, also below the expected 451.2 billion yuan, indicating a slight pullback in credit pulses but an overall continuation of the upward trend for the year [1][13] - The report suggests that the A-share market is expected to stabilize towards the end of the year, with limited short-term upside or downside, and anticipates a potential upward momentum in the first quarter of the following year [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bond market remains resilient despite weak fundamentals, with the overall bond market showing stability amid a backdrop of declining interest rates [3][31] - In November, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 6.9 basis points to 1.73%, indicating a stable bond market environment [31] - The report notes that the commodity price trends are diverging, with oil prices under pressure and gold prices experiencing fluctuations, influenced by global economic conditions and geopolitical factors [4][31] Group 3 - The report emphasizes a focus on large-cap growth stocks due to the recovery in the domestic economy, with China's manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating a better outlook compared to the US [19][20] - The report suggests that the overall economic recovery is favorable for growth sectors, with industrial value-added growth of 6.1% year-on-year from January to October [19][20] - The report recommends an asset allocation strategy favoring equities over commodities and bonds, with specific allocations for aggressive and conservative strategies [24][26]

Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in global merchandise trade growth as indicated by the World Trade Organization [4] - The U.S. online consumption during Black Friday reached a record high of $11.8 billion [4] - The European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that interest rates are at a reasonable level [4] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain the overall oil production of the group unchanged until 2026 [4] - The proportion of single-person households in South Korea has surpassed 36% for the first time [4] - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% [4] - The total social logistics volume in China for the first ten months reached 293.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [4] - The top 100 enterprises in China acquired land worth 847.8 billion yuan from January to November, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [4] - New regulations for live-streaming e-commerce are expected to be introduced [4] - The AI industry in Beijing is projected to exceed 450 billion yuan this year [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2560.00, up 3.23% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23365.69, up 0.65% [5] - The CME Bitcoin futures price was 91500.00, up 1.27% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47716.42, up 0.61% [5] - The ICE Brent Crude Oil price was 63.19, down 0.24% [5] - The London Gold price closed at 4218.55, up 1.48% [5] - The U.S. Dollar Index was at 99.44, down 0.11% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25858.89, down 0.34% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60, up 0.34% [5] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2453.81, up 0.96% [5]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.38% to 25,220.02, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.21% to 5,395.49, reflecting a broader market adjustment influenced by tightening liquidity expectations in the U.S. [5][9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an addition of 119,000 jobs, which was above expectations but still at a low level, leading to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to 33.1% [9][5] - The AI industry chain's pullback in the U.S. has negatively impacted Hong Kong's hard tech sector, particularly the semiconductor sector, which saw significant declines [9][5] Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 285.7 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 10.5 million [2][9] - The major indices in the A-share market also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.45% and the CSI 300 down by 2.44% [5][9] - The sector performance showed that all primary sectors under the CITIC Hong Kong Stock Connect Index declined, with steel (-6.39%), non-ferrous metals (-4.39%), and retail (-4.26%) leading the losses [5][9] Industry Outlook - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential "slow bull" market as it awaits renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and clarity in AI long-term narratives [9] - The focus for medium to long-term investments should shift towards sectors driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics, which are at a critical stage of commercialization [9] - The report highlights four key investment directions: 1) Quality supply creating new demand, 2) Re-evaluation of scarce resources driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors, 3) Recovery from excess capacity in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals, and 4) Benefits to financial markets from increased market activity and low-interest environments [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the challenges and transformations in the securities research industry, emphasizing the need for diversification in revenue sources and the impact of regulatory changes on commission income [2][8][10]. Group 1: Analyst Workforce - As of the end of 2024, there are 5,628 analysts in the industry, marking a 20.69% increase despite an overall decline in securities personnel [3][4]. - The number of analysts in research departments has decreased slightly to 9,619, with a median of 51 analysts per department [3]. - The turnover rate for analysts has increased, with 988 departures in 2024, a rise of 29.66% from 2023, while new hires decreased by 29.01% [4]. Group 2: Commission Income - Institutional client commission income reached 19.865 billion yuan in 2024, down 22.48% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in public fund commissions [2][8]. - The average commission rate for public funds fell from 7.37‰ in 2023 to 5.19‰ in 2024, contributing to a 20.12% decline in public fund commissions [8]. Group 3: Research Reports - A total of 96,156 research reports were published in 2024, a decrease of 5% from the previous year, with 83 securities firms participating [6]. - The number of reports on Hong Kong and other overseas listed companies increased by 5.37% to 14,732, indicating a growing focus on international markets [7]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The report suggests that securities firms should enhance the independence and professionalism of their research, focusing on sectors like technology and innovation [11]. - Firms are encouraged to diversify revenue sources beyond commissions, exploring consulting and data product fees [11][12]. - There is a call for a more integrated approach to research across A-shares, Hong Kong, and U.S. markets to better serve international investment needs [10][12].

Core Insights - The China Securities Association conducted a statistical analysis of the securities research report business for 2024, highlighting structural changes and development directions in the industry during its transformation [1] Personnel Structure Optimization - By the end of 2024, 102 securities firms established independent research departments or subsidiaries, employing a total of 9,619 people, a decrease of 1.05% from the end of 2023 [2] - The number of analysts in these departments reached 5,628, representing a 20.69% increase despite an overall decline in securities personnel, with analysts making up 58.51% of the total research department staff [2] - The number of chief economists hired by firms reached 42, with most managed by research departments [2] Personnel Flow Data - In 2024, 988 analysts left their positions, a 29.66% increase from 2023, while new hires dropped by 29.01% to 1,786 [3] - There is a trend of analysts moving from smaller to larger firms, leading to a high turnover rate and a rapid decline in new hires [3] - The number of firms providing research reports to institutional clients remained stable, with 92 firms serving public fund companies and 59 serving insurance companies [3] Revenue Structure Changes - Commission income from public fund clients decreased by 31.67% in 2024, with the top 10 firms accounting for 47.38% of total industry commission income, indicating a rise in industry concentration [4] - Non-public fund commission income saw a slight increase of 6%, driven by growing investments from non-public institutional investors [4] - A total of 83 firms published 96,156 research reports on domestic listed companies, a 5% decrease from 2023, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in research output [4] Globalization Efforts - The competition in the securities research business intensified, with a significant decline in commission income due to public fund fee reductions, which fell to 19.865 billion yuan, a 22.48% decrease from 2023 [5] - The number of firms publishing research reports on overseas listed companies increased, with large firms accelerating their research integration across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks [6] - The China Securities Association proposed three development suggestions: enhancing research independence and professionalism, clarifying research positioning, and adapting to cross-border business needs [6]