大类资产月度策略（2025.09） 贵金属一枝独秀 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 核心观点 1. 货币-信用"风火轮"：宽货币背景下信用持续修复 信用方面，8 月我国新增社融 25668 亿元，高于万得一致调查值（24873 亿 元）。其中新增人民币贷款 5900 亿元,高于万得一致调查值（5814 亿元）。 信用脉冲维持向上趋势，信用条件自低位修复。当前格局由此前的"宽货币 +偏紧信用"过渡为"宽货币+信用边际修复"。若政策传导与需求修复延续， 信用改善有望保持，对未来 1–3 个季度的经济与权益市场指引均偏正面。 2. 下一阶段大类资产价格展望 前期利好因素逐步兑现，A 股稳中有进。流动性释放与政策利好推动市场回 暖。A 股呈现向好走势，大盘成长带动市场上行，创业板指与深成指表现突 出。基本面上，企业上半年业绩整体稳健，多项惠民与消费刺激政策落地， 增强市场信心。外部因素方面，美联储降息释放流动性，中美经贸对话重启， 不确定性风险边际缓解。产业层面，公募基金费率改革及 ETF 热潮提升资金 活跃度，关注海外反规避与反歧视调查等措施强化了贸易保护工具。目前市 场已运行至相对高位，前期利好因素逐步 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the rise of Sun Xiaoya, a prominent analyst at Tianfeng Securities, who has gained significant attention and is referred to as "the strongest sales queen in A-shares" [1][4] - There are reports of Sun Xiaoya forming a "support fan club," making her the first analyst in A-shares to have such a following, reflecting the integration of capital markets and social media [3][5] - The phenomenon of analysts having fan clubs indicates a shift in the investor demographic, with younger investors becoming the mainstream, leading to changes and challenges in the market [3][13] Group 2 - Sun Xiaoya's recommendations have led to notable stock movements, with several stocks she mentioned experiencing significant price changes shortly after her recommendations were shared on social media [4][9] - A report co-authored by Sun Xiaoya circulated widely, recommending stocks that saw substantial gains, although there are questions about the authenticity and classification of this report as a formal research report [9][12] - The emergence of "internet celebrity" analysts like Sun Xiaoya has sparked discussions in the industry about the evolving role of analysts and the trend towards personal branding in research [13][14]

Group 1 - The report indicates that all tracked major indices experienced an increase last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.55%, the ChiNext Index by 8.58%, and the CSI 500 by 3.88% [10][17][20]. - Among the 31 primary industry indices tracked, 22 saw an increase while 9 experienced a decline. The top five performing industries were communication, electronics, non-bank financials, electric equipment, and computers, while the bottom five were banking, steel, textiles and apparel, coal, and public utilities [18][19]. - The total trading volume reached 6,961.20 billion shares, with a trading value of 105,094.59 billion yuan. There were 2,968 stocks that rose and 2,370 that fell [19][22]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio percentiles for the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index indicate that as of January 1, 2021, the CSI 300's PE percentile was approximately 44%, while the Shanghai Composite's was around 82%. By January 1, 2019, the Shanghai Composite's percentile was 82.95%, indicating it was higher than 70% of the time historically, while the CSI 300's percentile was 45.77%, suggesting it is in a relatively low range [6][26]. - The report provides data on historical highs and lows, noting that as of last week, 89 stocks reached historical highs while 6 reached historical lows. The number of stocks reaching new highs over 30, 60, and 120 days were 658, 557, and 498 respectively, while the new lows were 313, 108, and 35 [22][23]. Group 3 - Margin trading data shows that the weekly financing balance increased by approximately 53.24 billion yuan, while the margin short balance decreased by about 0.11 billion yuan [24].

Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to 7% in April, with projections of 2.3% for 2024, and specific rates of 37.5% on imports from China and 3.9% from other regions[2] - By May, the overall tariff rate further increased to 8.7%[3] Import Surge - U.S. imports exceeded historical trends by approximately $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly imports in 2024[3] - Air freight imports surged to 37.1% in January-March 2025, compared to an annual average of 27.6%[4] Source Regions - Major sources of increased imports include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, contributing 11 percentage points to the 19.3% year-on-year growth in U.S. imports from January to April 2025[4] - In April, the overall import growth rate fell to 1.9%, with ASEAN, Taiwan, and India still showing strong contributions[4] Product Categories - The primary products imported include electronics, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which collectively contributed 18.5 percentage points to the overall import growth of 19.3% from January to April 2025[5] - In April, electronics maintained a high growth rate, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the import increase, while pharmaceuticals and raw metals saw a decline in growth rates[5]

Core Insights - Since June 13, 2025, the local conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted energy and gold prices, with significant implications for various asset classes [1][12] - Historical analysis of major wars indicates that the impact on assets is influenced by factors such as the scale of conflict, involvement of major economies, inflation environment, monetary policy, and post-war reconstruction [3][4] Group 1: Impact on Equity Markets - Geopolitical shocks tend to have a short-term impact on equity markets, with military and financial sectors benefiting relatively more [1][5] - Historical trends show that geopolitical risks do not directly dictate long-term stock market trends; instead, they may create buying opportunities if the original market trend is upward [2][20] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The price of crude oil is expected to be higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over 25% of global maritime oil transport [1][5][13] - The potential for supply disruptions in the Middle East could lead to increased demand for oil from longer-distance suppliers like the US and Brazil [13] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are likely to reach new highs within the year due to the combination of geopolitical tensions and a trend towards "de-dollarization" [1][5][12] - The performance of gold is significantly influenced by its safe-haven appeal during times of conflict, with long-term trends dependent on US fiscal deficits and monetary policy [4][20] Group 4: Key Variables Affecting Asset Performance - The scale and duration of conflicts, involvement of major economies, inflationary pressures, and post-war economic recovery are critical variables that determine asset performance [3][4] - Historical conflicts show that if wars do not lead to long-term economic downturns, equity markets often rebound after initial panic sell-offs [4][20] Group 5: Dollar and Bond Market Dynamics - The US dollar typically strengthens in the early stages of geopolitical tensions due to its safe-haven status, while bond yields may initially decline [20][39] - The current dollar index is likely to remain weak, entering a downtrend cycle, with limited risk of significant declines within the year [40][42]

Export Data Summary - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Imports totaled $212.9 billion, showing a decline of 3.4%, compared to a previous decline of 0.2%[1] - The trade surplus reached $103.2 billion, an increase from $96.18 billion in the previous month[1] Trade Dynamics - Tariff fluctuations have disrupted global trade, contributing to the decline in export growth[1] - The "grab export" effect has provided some resilience, with container throughput increasing by 1.4% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year in May[1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 34.5% year-on-year, while exports to the EU increased by 12%[1][12] Sector Performance - Integrated circuits and automotive exports showed strong growth, with integrated circuits up 33.4% and automotive exports including chassis up 13.7%[3][19] - Labor-intensive product exports declined, with a notable drop in mobile phone exports by 23.2%[3][19] Future Outlook - The overall export growth for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, influenced by tariff impacts and global trade fragmentation[24] - Continued demand for Chinese products in ASEAN and EU markets is expected to support export resilience[25]

Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown signs of recovery from the negative impact of the "tariff war," with significant technical conditions being repaired during recent fluctuations [1][2] - Currently, the index is still within a wedge pattern, indicating a larger potential for upward movement and limited space for decline [3] Technical Analysis Summary - The index experienced a significant drop of 7.34% on April 7, 2025, due to the "tariff war," breaking through multiple long-term support levels, including the 60-day, half-year, and yearly moving averages [2][5] - Following the drop, the index began a gradual recovery, filling a significant gap of over 100 points, with a net inflow of large funds exceeding 27.6 billion yuan over 20 trading days [2][5] - As of May 7, 2025, the index has surpassed the 60-day and half-year moving averages, indicating a bullish trend in the short-term moving averages [2][5] - The index is approaching the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, with the need for strong volume and fund flow to break through this level [2][5] - Despite being near the upper resistance, there are multiple support levels below, suggesting limited downside potential [2][5] Market Conditions - The index is currently positioned near the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, but if it fails to break through, it may consolidate and gather strength [2][5] - The index's distance from the closing price on the day of the significant drop (approximately 250 points) indicates that, barring further negative impacts, the short-term decline potential is limited [2][5] - If the index successfully breaks through the wedge pattern, it could theoretically rise by the height of the wedge, similar to the previous rapid increase observed [2][5]

Group 1 - The analysis of financial fraud samples indicates that the communications services industry has the highest proportion of fraud cases, while the financial and utilities sectors have the lowest [3][18]. - From 2010 to 2018, the number and proportion of fraudulent companies increased from 7.5% to 17.9%, but there was a decline after 2019, reflecting stricter regulations following the revision of the Securities Law [3][18]. - Approximately 58.3% of fraudulent activities are exposed or terminated within 1-2 years, suggesting that systemic fraud is difficult to maintain over the long term [3][18]. Group 2 - A feature pool was constructed based on structured financial data from listed companies, retaining 100 indicators from an initial 378, which included 5,483 fraud samples and 42,046 control samples [3][26][28]. - The feature pool covers eight dimensions, including solvency, operational ability, profitability, development ability, ratio structure, risk level, cash flow analysis, and per-share indicators [26][28]. - The model's performance improved with the inclusion of sentiment tone factors, enhancing recall rates and reducing Type II errors, indicating the importance of sentiment analysis in identifying financial fraud [3][48][56]. Group 3 - The sentiment tone factor was constructed using the DeepSeek R1 model to analyze financial report texts, revealing that companies involved in fraud generally have lower sentiment scores compared to normal companies [3][39][40]. - Emotional contradictions, vague expressions, and industry anomalies are identified as risk signals through sentiment analysis, which can indicate potential fraud [3][39][40]. - The sentiment analysis captures non-structured risk clues, helping to identify discrepancies between positive financial data and negative sentiment [3][39][40]. Group 4 - The report highlights that the communications services, energy, and financial sectors were the most affected by fraud from 2010 to 2018, with the communications services sector's fraud rate increasing significantly during this period [22]. - Information disclosure violations have become the mainstream method of fraud, with significant omissions and false records being the most common types of violations [22]. - The report notes that the real estate sector maintained a high fraud rate of 15.5% in 2022, indicating ongoing issues with financial misrepresentation in the industry [22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The interplay between tariffs, AI, and the dollar is crucial for understanding the economic dynamics between China and the US, with AI trends attracting capital inflows and tariffs impacting trade balances [2][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in sustaining financial account inflows for the US, while China's economic model relies on a surplus in the current account but faces capital outflows [10][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: US Economic Dynamics - The US has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, with AI trends significantly attracting capital inflows and supporting the dollar [2][3] - Historical data shows that the US current account deficit peaked at -6.3% of GDP in Q3 2006, while financial account surplus reached 7.2% of GDP [2] - The report highlights that the AI narrative has become a key driver of capital inflows since 2023, creating a positive feedback loop for the US economy [10][11] Section 2: China Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO in 2001, but has faced increasing financial account deficits due to capital outflows [6][39] - The report notes that despite a surplus in the current account, the lack of effective capital inflows has hindered the transformation of foreign exchange reserves into domestic currency [41][15] - The need for China to stimulate domestic demand and attract capital inflows is emphasized, especially in light of external pressures from tariffs and global economic conditions [11][12] Section 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that 2026 will be a critical year for both AI trends and tariff policies, with potential implications for capital flows and economic stability in both the US and China [12][10] - The ability of the US to continue attracting capital will largely depend on the sustainability of its AI advantage, while China must focus on structural reforms to enhance its economic resilience [11][12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing income for urban and rural residents as a primary action plan, proposing measures such as promoting wage growth and expanding channels for property income [4][7][9] - It highlights the need for enhanced support in fertility, education, and pension security, including initiatives like childcare subsidies and improved educational resources [4][7][9] - The development of service consumption is a key focus, with specific measures aimed at optimizing services for the elderly and children, promoting lifestyle services, and expanding cultural and tourism consumption [4][7][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the proposal includes unexpected mentions of stabilizing the stock market and expanding property income channels, reflecting a higher policy emphasis on the capital market [4][9][12] - It also introduces support for the gaming and esports sectors, encouraging the development of original intellectual property and related consumer products [4][9][12] Group 3 - The market impact is viewed positively, with expectations that the proposal may boost consumer spending growth and corporate profit forecasts [4][12][13] - The report suggests that the policy could facilitate increased inflows of foreign and long-term capital into the A-share market, enhancing market sentiment [4][12][13] - Specific industries such as fertility, education, cultural services, and new consumption models are identified as potential beneficiaries of the proposed measures [4][12][13]