Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate strengthened significantly post-Spring Festival, with an average daily increase of 239 basis points, breaking key psychological levels of 6.85 and 6.80[1] - A concentrated demand for currency settlement emerged due to uneven workday distribution in January and February 2026, leading to a surge in settlement needs in late February[1] - Approximately $1 trillion of export earnings have been held in overseas accounts over the past 2-3 years, triggering a "herd effect" as these funds returned to settle in RMB[1] Market Trends - As of February 27, the counter-cyclical factor shadow reached a peak of 793 basis points, indicating regulatory measures to curb excessive speculation in the market[1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 20% to 0, reflecting a shift in monetary policy[1] - The current spread between the RMB central parity and spot exchange rate exceeds 700 basis points, indicating signs of overbought conditions[1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data improvement in early 2026 signals a positive domestic economic recovery, providing intrinsic support for the RMB exchange rate[1] - For the week of February 21 to February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.45%[2] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.53%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.11% during the same period[2] Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44,684 million tons, increasing by 46,224 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions for the US dollar by 2,121 contracts, while gold ETF holdings increased by 720,000 ounces[3]

Core Insights - The core conclusion suggests a preference for equities over commodities, bonds, and cash, with an asset allocation of 35% in stocks, 25% in bonds, 25% in commodities, and 15% in cash, indicating the current economic cycle is in a recovery window [2] - AI has enhanced the investment clock by capturing multi-dimensional cycle turning points, showing that the dynamic asset allocation system has significantly outperformed traditional models since 2005, with an average net value increase of 4.48 times [2][23] - Emerging markets are highlighted as a strategic opportunity to reduce reliance on US stocks, with a recommendation to increase their weight to 18% due to their low correlation with developed markets, which can enhance the Sharpe ratio by over 40% [2][48] - The report anticipates a recovery in PPI by mid-2026, driven by supply-side constraints and low capacity utilization in certain industries, suggesting a focus on commodities with strong pricing power [2][61][66] - The pricing logic of US and Japanese bonds is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from absolute safety to a more complex pricing mechanism influenced by fiscal sustainability [2][67][76] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation strategy is to maintain an aggressive stance on equities while using commodities to hedge against inflation, and to keep a neutral position in bonds to manage liquidity fluctuations [2] - The enhanced allocation strategy has shown a higher annualized return of 9.8% compared to traditional models, with a maximum drawdown of -18.3%, indicating better risk management [18] Economic Cycle Analysis - The improved investment clock divides the economic cycle into seven stages, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of asset performance across different phases, particularly emphasizing the transition from liquidity abundance to credit expansion [12][22] - AI models have been employed to automate the identification of economic cycle stages, significantly reducing the need for subjective judgment by analysts [32] Emerging Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are positioned as key players in the current investment landscape, with a focus on sectors supported by AI-driven capital expenditures and earnings expectations, despite challenges from currency fluctuations [49][53] - The report notes that the momentum factor is currently leading in emerging markets, with a strong preference for technology stocks that can deliver performance despite adverse currency conditions [56] Commodity Market Insights - The report predicts that PPI will turn positive in the first half of 2026, with commodity futures prices serving as a leading indicator for industrial price recovery [61] - There is a focus on sectors with low capacity utilization and strong supply constraints, which are expected to drive price increases in the commodity market [66]

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, significantly dropping due to the Spring Festival timing effect[2] - Food prices turned negative year-on-year at -0.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, influenced by last year's high base effect[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but reached a six-month high of 0.3% month-on-month[2] PPI Insights - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] - Key industries showed price increases, such as photovoltaic equipment manufacturing up 1.9% and computer manufacturing up 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy-related industries continued to see price declines, with oil and gas extraction prices down 16.7% and coal mining down 9.8%[2] Future Projections - February 2026 CPI is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially the highest since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand shift[2] - The anticipated month-on-month CPI increase for February is around 0.9%, with new price factors contributing 1.1%[2] - The PPI is projected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting improved industrial price conditions and a gradual recovery of economic momentum[2] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that domestic policy effects may not meet expectations, which could impact inflation and economic recovery[2]

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 春节配置，谁主沉浮 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本报告结合历史春节假期前后数据回测与当前特殊的政策资金博弈环境，对"持股还是持币"的 假期配置进行分析推荐：建议维持中高仓位"持股过节"，但需进行严格的结构优化。历史数据 显示，春节后 10 个交易日 A 股上涨概率较高，且风格往往从节前的大盘防御向节后的小盘成 长切换。当前宏观层面虽处于政策"空窗期"，但"十五五"规划预期与流动性宽松底色未变。策略 上，建议利用节前调整窗口，布局 AI 应用、人形机器人及涨价顺周期板块，以博弈节后或有可 能出现的"春躁下半场"。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 春节配置，谁主沉浮 [Table_Summary2] 1 月复盘及当前市场位置 回顾 2026 年 1 月，市场经历了从亢奋到理性的显著切换，经历了开门红（1-10 日）后，监管 在 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 开启"投资于人"新一环——房地产新动 向的信号意义 研究结论 风险提示 每位负责撰写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此作以下声明： ⚫ 产业转型过程中，大城市劳动密集型行业占比减少，技术密集型行业占比增加，可 能会制约劳动者的增加以及地产需求的扩大。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.c ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The recent intervention in the yen's depreciation is not a repeat of the Plaza Accord but rather a re-pricing of assets under Japan's fiscal narrative[1] - The yen's decline has been accompanied by a rare simultaneous weakening of Japanese government bonds, driven by ineffective interest rate differentials and fiscal expansion expectations[1][3] - The Japanese government's strong fiscal narrative has led to increased government bond issuance and short-term debt supply pressure, resulting in rising interest rates[1][6] Group 2: US-Japan Cooperation - A coordinated effort between the US and Japan to stabilize the yen is seen as a "Nash equilibrium" to avoid significant selling pressure on US Treasuries[2] - If the US does not intervene, Japan's strategy would likely involve selling US Treasuries to stabilize the yen, which would exert significant downward pressure on US bonds[2][30] - The US's intervention aims to manage expectations rather than implement a substantial revaluation of the currency, focusing on stabilizing the Japanese yen[20][34] Group 3: Future Asset Pricing - Asset prices are entering a re-pricing window, with the yen expected to remain weak but potentially stabilize in a range due to political constraints and market pressures[3][34] - The long-term support for the US dollar is influenced by geopolitical factors and resource security, while short-term movements are constrained by Federal Reserve policies[3][37] - Resource commodities are undergoing a systemic re-evaluation, with both nominal and real values expected to rise due to a weak dollar and geopolitical tensions[3][42]

证券研究报告 宏观视角 金价近五千、银价破一百的启示 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日│美国 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 2023 年来，我们始终看好以黄金为代表的贵金属价格重估（参见《全球央行购金百年史：任重而道远》，2024/5/10）。 随着全球地缘政治重构和财政可持续性恶化均驶入"快车道"，我们持续看好这类有一定"货币属性"的商品的长期 配置价值。但随着贵金属重估进入"共识"阶段，我们也进一步探讨这一趋势对更广义资产配置的启示，①全球变局 下黄金、白银的走势提醒我们，货币"含金量"下降、"估值锚"快速向上漂移，我们对供给稀缺实物资产和核心股 权资产的定价体系或许需要有所调整。②全球大宗商品、包括 AI 和国防军工航天等领域稀缺关键商品的供需平衡变化 可能持续推动更广义的商品、资源品价格重估，鉴于 2026 后与 2025 年前相比，全球投资周期将更为"耗材"，且 AI 基建及国防军工等核心需求增量的价格敏感度较低；同时，中国地产相关耗材量下降接近尾声，全球资源品需求不再 ...

Group 1: Market Impact - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed 4% on January 20, marking a historical high, with a single-day increase exceeding 25 basis points[1] - Japan's fiscal policy changes, including a supplementary budget expected to increase annual deficits by approximately 5 trillion yen, have raised concerns about sovereign credit risk[13] - The rise in Japanese bond yields has led to a significant capital repatriation effect, decreasing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries for Japanese investors[14] Group 2: Asset Performance - From January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 also dropped by 0.36%[15] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 1.88%, while the offshore yuan appreciated by 0.27% during the same period[15] - Gold prices increased by 7.27%, and silver prices rose by 9.04%, indicating a shift towards precious metals amidst market volatility[15] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - The latest oil inventory stood at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[26] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[31] - The gold ETF size rose to 34.93 million ounces, up by 30,000 ounces from the previous week[31]

资产配置 | 定期报告 风偏继续向中间集中 20260119 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | --- | --- | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配置周报 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 ...

Group 1: Medical Service Price Trends - Recent data shows that medical service prices have increased, with a year-on-year rise of 2.9% in December, significantly higher than the overall CPI increase of 0.8%[10] - The rise in medical service prices is driven by regional adjustments in government-guided pricing, indicating a nationwide trend towards higher medical service costs[10] - The adjustment of medical service prices is not uniform; it reflects a structural change where labor costs for medical staff are increasing while some consumables are decreasing in price[14] Group 2: Economic Implications and Consumer Behavior - The healthcare expenditure as a percentage of total spending is higher in rural areas (10.7%) compared to urban areas (8.3%), indicating a greater financial burden on rural residents[20] - The ongoing reforms in medical service pricing are expected to improve hospital revenues, with estimates suggesting an increase of approximately 2.86 billion yuan in total hospital income across various regions[20] - The introduction of self-paid medical services may create a new revenue stream, allowing hospitals to enhance service quality and meet higher consumer demands[21] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Changes - The recent revision of the Pricing Law allows for more flexible government pricing mechanisms, which may lead to future price increases in public services, including education and healthcare[33] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for medical service prices is designed to ensure that changes occur only when the healthcare fund is stable, minimizing the impact on basic living standards[22] - The government is encouraging the provision of specialized medical services that are fully self-funded, which could support price increases while balancing the financial responsibilities of residents and hospitals[21]