每经记者｜王海慜 每经编辑｜陈柯名 叶峰 近期，有"A股最强带货女王"之称的天风证券电新行业首席分析师孙潇雅堪称卖方行业最"出圈"的一位。 除了经常有"孙潇雅概念股"的各类帖子在社交媒体流传之外，最近坊间有消息称，孙潇雅已成为A股第一个拥有"后援粉丝团"的分析师。 不过，最近，多个社交平台共同传播了一则消息：孙潇雅解散了客户群，理由是电新和汽车团队重组。实际情况究竟如何？对此，今日《每日经济新闻》 记者与其本人取得了联系。 据记者观察，分析师"后援粉丝团"现象的出现，折射出目前年轻投资者群体逐渐成为主流后，资本市场与社交媒体深度融合下的变革与挑战。而当一名分 析师以"A股最强带货女王"出圈的同时，也在业内引发了不少讨论和争议。 "网红"分析师孙潇雅接连出圈 近期，天风证券"网红"分析师孙潇雅的动态成为不少投资者关切的方向。《每日经济新闻》在今年8月7日的报道 《"天风孙潇雅概念股"火爆出圈！券商 分析师跨界荐股，是追热点还是真本事？业内热议》中指出，8月6日当天，"天风孙潇雅8月推荐个股汇总"表格在社交平台广泛传播，第二天表格中多只 个股出现异动，此外，近年来孙潇雅频繁"跨界研究"也引发业内热议。 而这波热度 ...

上周跟踪的基准指数全面上涨 申港证券策略周报 投资摘要: 2025年08月20日 徐广福 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1660524030001 大盘表现走势图 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-08 2024-08 略研究周 投资策略: 上周我们跟踪的五大指数全面上涨。我们选取了沪深 300 和上证指数市盈率 百分位的两个截面图发现:若自 2021年1月1日起,沪深 300 指数市盈率百 分位约在 44%,上证指数的约在 82%:但如果自 2019年 1月 1日起,上证 指数的百分位是 82.95%,说明此时的 PE 比过去 82.95%的时间高,已超过了 70%的高位阈值:沪深 300 的百分位是 45.77%,处在相对较低的区间位置。 风险提示:市场波动风险、政策风险。 资料来源:wind,申港证券研究所 相关报告 1、《申港证券策略周报:上周跟踪的基准 指数全面下跌》2025-08-06 研究报告 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 ◆ 上周各主要指数具体表现分别为:沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为 2.37%,上证指 数涨跌幅 1.70%,深证成指涨跌踏为 4.55%,创业板涨跌幅为 8. ...

Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to 7% in April, with projections of 2.3% for 2024, and specific rates of 37.5% on imports from China and 3.9% from other regions[2] - By May, the overall tariff rate further increased to 8.7%[3] Import Surge - U.S. imports exceeded historical trends by approximately $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly imports in 2024[3] - Air freight imports surged to 37.1% in January-March 2025, compared to an annual average of 27.6%[4] Source Regions - Major sources of increased imports include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, contributing 11 percentage points to the 19.3% year-on-year growth in U.S. imports from January to April 2025[4] - In April, the overall import growth rate fell to 1.9%, with ASEAN, Taiwan, and India still showing strong contributions[4] Product Categories - The primary products imported include electronics, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which collectively contributed 18.5 percentage points to the overall import growth of 19.3% from January to April 2025[5] - In April, electronics maintained a high growth rate, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the import increase, while pharmaceuticals and raw metals saw a decline in growth rates[5]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 地缘博弈下的资产复盘启示 ——策略专题研究 核心观点 2025 年 6 月 13 日以来，以伊发生局部冲突，地缘博弈提振能源和金价。我们选取 20 世纪以来的重要战争进行复盘。发现资产影响关键变量在于战争规模、是否涉及主要 经济体、通胀环境、货币政策及战后重建情况。对于以伊冲突影响，我们认为： 1） 美股、A 股和港股方面，地缘冲击影响偏短期，军工、大金融板块相对受益。2）原油 而言，6-12 月价格中枢可能高于 1-5 月。霍尔木兹海峡原油运输占全球海洋运输量 1/4 以上，伊朗亦为全球十大产油大国之一，关注两个变量对油价的推动。3）黄金而言， 地缘博弈叠加"去美元化"趋势下，年内金价或仍有新高可能。 地缘摩擦初期黄金受避险需求提振，股市短期承压，长期仍趋于遵循原有轨道 复盘历史战争开启后资产表现，地缘风险本身不会直接影响股市趋势。黄金和原 油分别受避险情绪及供应偏紧的驱动下或明显上行。权益市场看，一般短期市场 会在战争冲击下波动加剧，但中长期随战争局势逐步明朗，美股等全球主要相关 国的股指会出现企稳。地缘风险本身不会直接影响股市的趋势，若原有股市趋势 是向上的 ...

Export Data Summary - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Imports totaled $212.9 billion, showing a decline of 3.4%, compared to a previous decline of 0.2%[1] - The trade surplus reached $103.2 billion, an increase from $96.18 billion in the previous month[1] Trade Dynamics - Tariff fluctuations have disrupted global trade, contributing to the decline in export growth[1] - The "grab export" effect has provided some resilience, with container throughput increasing by 1.4% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year in May[1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 34.5% year-on-year, while exports to the EU increased by 12%[1][12] Sector Performance - Integrated circuits and automotive exports showed strong growth, with integrated circuits up 33.4% and automotive exports including chassis up 13.7%[3][19] - Labor-intensive product exports declined, with a notable drop in mobile phone exports by 23.2%[3][19] Future Outlook - The overall export growth for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, influenced by tariff impacts and global trade fragmentation[24] - Continued demand for Chinese products in ASEAN and EU markets is expected to support export resilience[25]

Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown signs of recovery from the negative impact of the "tariff war," with significant technical conditions being repaired during recent fluctuations [1][2] - Currently, the index is still within a wedge pattern, indicating a larger potential for upward movement and limited space for decline [3] Technical Analysis Summary - The index experienced a significant drop of 7.34% on April 7, 2025, due to the "tariff war," breaking through multiple long-term support levels, including the 60-day, half-year, and yearly moving averages [2][5] - Following the drop, the index began a gradual recovery, filling a significant gap of over 100 points, with a net inflow of large funds exceeding 27.6 billion yuan over 20 trading days [2][5] - As of May 7, 2025, the index has surpassed the 60-day and half-year moving averages, indicating a bullish trend in the short-term moving averages [2][5] - The index is approaching the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, with the need for strong volume and fund flow to break through this level [2][5] - Despite being near the upper resistance, there are multiple support levels below, suggesting limited downside potential [2][5] Market Conditions - The index is currently positioned near the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, but if it fails to break through, it may consolidate and gather strength [2][5] - The index's distance from the closing price on the day of the significant drop (approximately 250 points) indicates that, barring further negative impacts, the short-term decline potential is limited [2][5] - If the index successfully breaks through the wedge pattern, it could theoretically rise by the height of the wedge, similar to the previous rapid increase observed [2][5]

Group 1 - The analysis of financial fraud samples indicates that the communications services industry has the highest proportion of fraud cases, while the financial and utilities sectors have the lowest [3][18]. - From 2010 to 2018, the number and proportion of fraudulent companies increased from 7.5% to 17.9%, but there was a decline after 2019, reflecting stricter regulations following the revision of the Securities Law [3][18]. - Approximately 58.3% of fraudulent activities are exposed or terminated within 1-2 years, suggesting that systemic fraud is difficult to maintain over the long term [3][18]. Group 2 - A feature pool was constructed based on structured financial data from listed companies, retaining 100 indicators from an initial 378, which included 5,483 fraud samples and 42,046 control samples [3][26][28]. - The feature pool covers eight dimensions, including solvency, operational ability, profitability, development ability, ratio structure, risk level, cash flow analysis, and per-share indicators [26][28]. - The model's performance improved with the inclusion of sentiment tone factors, enhancing recall rates and reducing Type II errors, indicating the importance of sentiment analysis in identifying financial fraud [3][48][56]. Group 3 - The sentiment tone factor was constructed using the DeepSeek R1 model to analyze financial report texts, revealing that companies involved in fraud generally have lower sentiment scores compared to normal companies [3][39][40]. - Emotional contradictions, vague expressions, and industry anomalies are identified as risk signals through sentiment analysis, which can indicate potential fraud [3][39][40]. - The sentiment analysis captures non-structured risk clues, helping to identify discrepancies between positive financial data and negative sentiment [3][39][40]. Group 4 - The report highlights that the communications services, energy, and financial sectors were the most affected by fraud from 2010 to 2018, with the communications services sector's fraud rate increasing significantly during this period [22]. - Information disclosure violations have become the mainstream method of fraud, with significant omissions and false records being the most common types of violations [22]. - The report notes that the real estate sector maintained a high fraud rate of 15.5% in 2022, indicating ongoing issues with financial misrepresentation in the industry [22].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing income for urban and rural residents as a primary action plan, proposing measures such as promoting wage growth and expanding channels for property income [4][7][9] - It highlights the need for enhanced support in fertility, education, and pension security, including initiatives like childcare subsidies and improved educational resources [4][7][9] - The development of service consumption is a key focus, with specific measures aimed at optimizing services for the elderly and children, promoting lifestyle services, and expanding cultural and tourism consumption [4][7][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the proposal includes unexpected mentions of stabilizing the stock market and expanding property income channels, reflecting a higher policy emphasis on the capital market [4][9][12] - It also introduces support for the gaming and esports sectors, encouraging the development of original intellectual property and related consumer products [4][9][12] Group 3 - The market impact is viewed positively, with expectations that the proposal may boost consumer spending growth and corporate profit forecasts [4][12][13] - The report suggests that the policy could facilitate increased inflows of foreign and long-term capital into the A-share market, enhancing market sentiment [4][12][13] - Specific industries such as fertility, education, cultural services, and new consumption models are identified as potential beneficiaries of the proposed measures [4][12][13]

公司愿景&业务构成 发挥野村集团的全球平台资源，长期立足中国资本市场，持续投入，逐步发展成为全牌照证券公司； 为中 国客户提供高端的综合金融服务方案。致力于树立中国金融市场上合资证券公司的"经营典范"。 财富管理部 机构业务部 研究部 资产管理部 企业金融部 自营交易部 品宣公关部 财富管理部 整合公司的牌照资源、业务资源、人力资源服务于国内高净值人群和大众理财人群并为其提供相应的专业 化、个性化的财富管理综合解决方案。 部门定位 定位及发展方向 · 财富管理部致力于为中国大陆市场的高端个人及企业投资者提供具有国际水准的咨询及交易服务。 · 凭借野村多年全球化深耕经验，发挥出通过面谈进行财富规划的咨询优势，服务于中国高净值人群。 · 秉承野村传统，通过专业化精细化的财富管理服务团队，一切以客户为中心。 发展 方向 ·立足中国，依托野村全球资源，打造一流的国际化财富管理平台。 ·"客户至上"原则，始终坚持"买方"财富管理理念，与客户共成长。 ·强化服务能力，依托专业财富资源团队，打造一流的财富管理队伍。 机构业务部 机构业务部依托野村集团全球平台、整合公司各业务领域资源，为合格境外机构投资者、国内公募基金、 私 ...