美国国债规模已经堆到天文数字，接近35万亿美元，这事儿谁都绕不开。尤其是中国作为最大外国持有者，手里捏着7500亿美元左右的美债，成了全球焦 点。 特朗普第二任期刚起步，就有专家跳出来喊话，说要搞个新版广场协议，还建议把短期美债换成100年长期债券，这等于变相拖欠啊。美国想通过汇率和债 务调整，重振自家经济。问题是，这种老套路放到今天，还能行得通吗？ 美国债务压顶下的新算盘 美国经济这些年表面风光，实际藏着不少隐患。美元强势让出口产品贵得卖不动，制造业回流喊了半天也没见大动静。2024年大选后，特朗普团队上台，很 快就盯上贸易逆差这块硬骨头。 白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在2024年11月抛出一份报告，叫《重构全球贸易体系使用指南》，这份东西在特朗普的海湖庄园发布，所以外头管它 叫"海湖庄园协议"。 报告里直白说，美国得调控关税，压低美元汇率，这样才能改全球贸易格局。为什么？因为美元太强，逆差年年破纪录，2024年对华贸易逆差就超3000亿美 元。 米兰建议学1985年的广场协议，那时候美国拉着日本、英国、法国、德国，在纽约广场饭店签协议，联合干预外汇市场，让美元对日元和马克贬值。 结果美元跌了，日本出 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the structural imbalances in global trade and the concept of the "twin deficits" in the U.S., providing a framework for analyzing potential solutions to these issues [2][8] - It highlights the paradox of Trump's economic policies, which have led to both internal and external imbalances, exacerbating the trade deficit [3][5] - The U.S. current account deficit accounts for 60-70% of the global total, indicating a significant reliance on foreign capital [4][24] Group 2 - The article outlines three potential solutions to the twin deficits: fiscal consolidation, currency depreciation, and adjustments in domestic savings and investment [6][34] - It emphasizes that the U.S. trade deficit is a reflection of domestic savings shortfalls and rising fiscal deficits, with a 1% increase in fiscal deficit correlating to a 0.3-0.5% increase in the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP [5][97] - The historical context of U.S. trade imbalances is provided, noting that the current account deficit has expanded significantly since the 1980s, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis [29][68] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency, which contributes to trade imbalances and the need for the U.S. to maintain a trade deficit to supply dollars globally [41][72] - It mentions that the U.S. trade deficit has not improved despite tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, with the goods trade deficit rising from $790 billion in 2017 to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2023 [37][61] - The article suggests that the structural issues in the U.S. economy, including low savings rates and high consumption, are fundamental causes of the persistent trade deficit [90][97]

新华财经东京9月23日电（记者刘春燕）40年前的9月22日，在美国主导下，包括日本在内的5国在纽约 签署旨在通过政策合作扭转美元升值局面的"广场协议"。正是"广场协议"开启了日元飙升、日本出口企 业遭受重创、日本货币政策被迫宽松化等一系列改变日本的进程，并最终导致日本泡沫经济破灭。 "受对美出口下降拖累，日本整体出口连续4个月下降。预计短期内日本出口仍将保持疲软态势。"明治 安田综合研究所经济调查部经济学家藤田敬史认为，虽然对日本来说美国汽车关税已由27.5%降至 15%，但仍将对出口构成下行压力。此外，美国政府还在考虑对半导体及药品加税，关税对日本经济的 影响仍需持续关注。 日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正表示，政府需"警惕美国关税政策带来的下行风险，尽最大努力缓解美国关 税措施的影响"。 为对冲关税影响，三菱和马自达开始主动减少盈利较低的低价车出口，积极开拓美国之外的市场销路。 丰田等部分日本汽车制造商被迫加大在美国国内的产能，并尽量在美国国内采购零部件。 一家位于东大阪市的弹簧制造厂负责人表示，汽车厂商原本是工厂的重要客户，相关销售额约占公司总 销售额的三成左右。受美国汽车关税政策影响，日本汽车零部件厂商正设法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury is once again a focal point of power struggle, reminiscent of historical tensions, particularly in light of recent political actions and economic pressures [1][5]. Historical Context - The Federal Reserve was under the control of the Treasury until the "Treasury-Fed Accord" in March 1951, which restored its independence and established the foundation for modern central banking in the U.S. [1][3]. - During World War II, the Fed agreed to keep short-term Treasury bill rates at 3.8% and long-term bond rates at 2.5% to assist in war financing, leading to increased money supply and loss of control over its balance sheet [2]. Recent Developments - Former President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged mortgage fraud, which she has contested in court, potentially impacting the Fed's independence [1][4]. - Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a new Fed governor and the ongoing investigation by the Justice Department into Cook's allegations highlight the current political pressures on the Fed [1][4]. Proposed Economic Strategies - Milan's "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" suggests radical measures to enhance U.S. export competitiveness, including forcing foreign governments to convert U.S. debt into long-term bonds and implementing aggressive financial policies [4]. - Critics argue that these strategies could disrupt the global financial system and represent a regression to political manipulation of the Fed, contrasting sharply with the independence established in 1951 [4][5]. Future Implications - The current situation presents a crossroads for the U.S., weighing the importance of institutional independence and market trust against the pressures of managing national debt [4][5].

最近几年，美国经济老出点事儿，尤其是银行那边，接二连三地有机构倒闭，这事儿闹得全球金融圈子都跟着晃荡。 话说2023年那会儿，美国银行失败的案子特别扎眼，先是硅谷银行在3月10日栽了跟头，这家银行资产规模高达2090亿美元，主要服务科技初创企业，结果 因为美联储加息太猛，债券价值缩水，客户挤兑资金，它就扛不住了。 紧跟着，3月12日Signature银行也挂了，资产1100亿美元，这家专注加密货币业务的银行同样中了利率上升的招。 到了5月1日，First Republic银行步后尘，资产规模差不多2300亿美元，算是2023年最大的一笔失败案子。 这些银行倒闭直接拉低了全球银行股，美联储赶紧出面干预，联邦存款保险公司接管资产，卖给大银行比如摩根大通，避免更大范围的恐慌。 其实这些失败不是孤立的，美国从2022年开始加息，基准利率一路推到5.25%-5.5%，目的是压通胀，但银行手里那些长期债券价格就崩了。2023年总共五家 银行失败，比前几年多多了。 转到2024年，情况缓和点，只有一两家小银行出问题，比如费城的Republic First银行在4月底失败，资产规模60亿美元，主要原因是管理不善和房地产贷款 ...

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around whether the Chinese economy might follow the path of Japan's economic bubble, with a focus on current economic conditions and policy responses [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - The conversation features insights from renowned economist Tang Ya and Professor Xu Yuan from Peking University's National School of Development, analyzing the lessons from Japan's "Plaza Accord" and the resilience of the Chinese economy [1][4] - The analysis includes a review of China's efforts in monetary, fiscal, and real estate policies to avoid past mistakes made by Japan [1][3] Group 2: Program Details - The program "Two Says" will air on September 17 at 22:30 on Oriental TV and on September 20 at 22:00 on First Financial [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of the Chinese economy repeating the mistakes of Japan's economic bubble, analyzing current economic conditions and policy measures taken by China to avoid such pitfalls [1]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - The discussion includes insights from renowned economist Tang Ya and Professor Xu Yuan from Peking University's National School of Development, focusing on the lessons learned from Japan's "Plaza Accord" [1]. - The analysis emphasizes the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst various challenges, including monetary and fiscal policies [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The article highlights the efforts made by China in areas such as exchange rates, interest rates, real estate, and fiscal policy to mitigate risks associated with economic bubbles [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation and historical events from 40 years ago, particularly focusing on the potential for a repeat of the "Black Monday" stock market crash due to the weakening of the US dollar and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [2][5][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - The US dollar has depreciated nearly 10% this year, reaching a three-year low against major currencies, coinciding with Trump's return to the White House [2]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new historical highs, driven by expectations of monetary easing and improved trade relations [4]. Group 2: Historical Comparison - The "Plaza Accord" of 1985 led to a significant depreciation of the dollar while the US stock market experienced a period of unusual prosperity, with the dollar falling 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against other major currencies over 17 months [5][7]. - Despite the dollar's decline, US import prices did not rise significantly due to exporters, including Japan, compressing profit margins to maintain market share [7]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Leadership - Market confidence during the 1985 period was heavily reliant on the credibility of then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who had successfully controlled inflation previously [8][12]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 saw a lack of decisive action when the dollar fell below critical levels, leading to a loss of market confidence and contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [10][11]. Group 4: Implications for Current Market - The article suggests that if Volcker had remained in charge, he would likely have taken action to stabilize the dollar, potentially preventing the market crash [11][12]. - The personal reputation of the Fed Chairman and the market's trust in their commitment to anti-inflation policies are critical in maintaining market stability [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation in the U.S. and historical events from 40 years ago, particularly focusing on the potential for a repeat of the "Black Monday" stock market crash due to factors such as a weakening dollar and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. dollar has depreciated nearly 10% this year, reaching a three-year low against major currencies, coinciding with Trump's return to the White House [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached multiple all-time highs, driven by expectations of monetary easing and improved trade relations [2]. Group 2: Historical Comparison - The article references the "Plaza Accord" of 1985, which led to a significant decline in the dollar and a simultaneous rise in U.S. stock markets, with the dollar falling 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against other major currencies over 17 months [2][4]. - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. import prices did not significantly rise, aided by falling global oil prices, which helped maintain low inflation [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Impact - The market's confidence during the "Plaza Accord" era was largely attributed to then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's reputation for controlling inflation, which reassured investors [5]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 marked a shift, as he failed to respond to critical market signals, leading to a loss of confidence and ultimately contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [6]. Group 4: Hypothetical Scenarios - The article posits that if Volcker had remained in charge, he likely would have acted to stabilize the dollar and control inflation, potentially preventing the market crash [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation in the U.S. shows similarities to historical events, particularly the 1985 Plaza Accord, where a significant depreciation of the dollar coincided with rising stock markets, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the "Black Monday" crash of 1987 [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The 1985 Plaza Accord led to a dramatic depreciation of the dollar, with a 36.5% drop against the yen and a 30.8% to 36.6% drop against major European currencies over 17 months [2]. - Despite the significant decline in the dollar, the U.S. stock market, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached historical highs during this period [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market's confidence during the Plaza Accord era was largely attributed to the credibility of then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who had successfully controlled high inflation prior to the Accord [6]. - The lack of significant increases in import prices, despite the dollar's depreciation, was aided by a drop in international oil prices, which helped to mitigate inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: Leadership Transition - The transition from Volcker to Alan Greenspan in 1987 marked a critical turning point; Greenspan's inaction when the dollar fell below the key 150 yen level led to renewed selling pressure from Japanese investors [7]. - Rising core CPI inflation rates, which reached 4.5% by October 1987, compounded the market's instability, ultimately contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [7]. Group 4: Hypothetical Scenarios - The report suggests that if Volcker had remained in charge, he would likely have intervened to stabilize the dollar, potentially preventing the market turmoil that led to "Black Monday" [8]. - The personal reputation of the Fed Chairman and the market's confidence in their commitment to anti-inflation policies are critical in maintaining market stability [9].