动图由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美元贬值、美股新高、美联储主席换届…… 四十年前的历史正在重现，"黑色星期一"会卷土重来 吗？ 今年以来，随着特朗普重返白宫，美元汇率持续走弱， 美元指数累计下跌近10% ，美元兑主要 货币汇率一度跌至近三年低点。 与此同时，在宽松预期升温、贸易局势缓和等因素的驱动下，标普、纳指已屡创历史新高。 而历史上， 在1985年"广场协议"签署后，美国市场同样经历了一段"美元大跌、美股大涨"的相 似历程。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券首席经济学家Richard Koo在近日发布的研报中指出， 1985年 的"广场协议"开启了一段美元急剧贬值、美国股市却屡创新高的反常繁荣，这和当前美股的繁荣 景象"非常相似"。 报告显示，在"广场协议"签署后的17个月内，美元对日元下跌36.5%，对德国马克、法国法郎和 意大利里拉等主要欧洲货币下跌30.8%至36.6%。尽管各国实体经济被迫进行重大调整，但美国 股价却如同今日一般持续冲上历史新高。 这种看似矛盾的繁荣，很大程度上得益于当时市场对通胀并未失控的判断，尤其是当时的美联储 主席保罗·沃克尔（Paul Volcker），其卓越的抗通胀声誉为市场 ...

美元贬值、美股新高、美联储主席换届……四十年前的历史正在重现，"黑色星期一"会卷土重来吗？ 今年以来，随着特朗普重返白宫，美元汇率持续走弱，美元指数累计下跌近10%，美元兑主要货币汇率一度跌至近三年低点。 与此同时，在宽松预期升温、贸易局势缓和等因素的驱动下，标普、纳指已屡创历史新高。 而历史上，在1985年"广场协议"签署后，美国市场同样经历了一段"美元大跌、美股大涨"的相似历程。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券首席经济学家Richard Koo在近日发布的研报中指出，1985年的"广场协议"开启了一段美元急剧贬 值、美国股市却屡创新高的反常繁荣，这和当前美股的繁荣景象"非常相似"。 报告显示，在"广场协议"签署后的17个月内，美元对日元下跌36.5%，对德国马克、法国法郎和意大利里拉等主要欧洲货币下跌 30.8%至36.6%。尽管各国实体经济被迫进行重大调整，但美国股价却如同今日一般持续冲上历史新高。 这种看似矛盾的繁荣，很大程度上得益于当时市场对通胀并未失控的判断，尤其是当时的美联储主席保罗·沃克尔（Paul Volcker），其卓越的抗通胀声誉为市场提供了信心支撑。 然而，这种乐观情绪在两年后随着美联储领 ...

美元贬值、美股新高、美联储主席换届……四十年前的历史正在重现，"黑色星期一"会卷土重来吗？ 今年以来，随着特朗普重返白宫，美元汇率持续走弱，美元指数累计下跌近10%，美元兑主要货币汇率 一度跌至近三年低点。与此同时，在宽松预期升温、贸易局势缓和等因素的驱动下，标普、纳指已屡创 历史新高。 而历史上，在1985年"广场协议"签署后，美国市场同样经历了一段"美元大跌、美股大涨"的相似历程。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券首席经济学家Richard Koo在近日发布的研报中指出，1985年的"广场协 议"开启了一段美元急剧贬值、美国股市却屡创新高的反常繁荣，这和当前美股的繁荣景象"非常相 似"。 报告显示，在"广场协议"签署后的17个月内，美元对日元下跌36.5%，对德国马克、法国法郎和意大利 里拉等主要欧洲货币下跌30.8%至36.6%。尽管各国实体经济被迫进行重大调整，但美国股价却如同今 日一般持续冲上历史新高。 这种看似矛盾的繁荣，很大程度上得益于当时市场对通胀并未失控的判断，尤其是当时的美联储主席保 罗·沃克尔（Paul Volcker），其卓越的抗通胀声誉为市场提供了信心支撑。 然而，这种乐观情绪在两年后随着 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the similarities and differences between Chinese and Japanese companies in their overseas expansion efforts, highlighting Japan's extensive experience in this area [4][10]. - Japan's overseas net assets reached $3.36 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 80% of its domestic GDP, showcasing the significant impact of overseas investments on its economy [2][11]. - The Japanese government has established a comprehensive support system for overseas investments, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [15]. Group 2 - The article outlines the stages of Japanese companies' overseas expansion, starting from limited overseas investments before 1980 to a more aggressive approach post-1985 due to the appreciation of the yen and the search for new growth opportunities [4][6]. - The ongoing China-U.S. trade war presents challenges for Chinese companies, with potential outcomes including increased imports from China or direct investments in the U.S., though these options face significant hurdles [9]. - The concept of creating a "shadow China" abroad, similar to Japan's overseas presence, is discussed, emphasizing that achieving similar overseas returns would require substantial annual investments [10][14]. Group 3 - Japanese companies faced challenges in internationalization, particularly in talent acquisition, which they addressed through gradual internal development and learning from experiences [15][16]. - The article emphasizes the importance of respecting local markets and cultures when entering foreign markets, as demonstrated by Japanese companies successfully localizing production in the U.S. [16]. - There is a willingness among Japanese companies to collaborate with Chinese firms in overseas ventures, viewing it as a new growth opportunity [18].

Economic Context - The 1980s marked a critical turning point in the global economy, with the U.S. facing severe economic challenges such as rising fiscal deficits and trade imbalances, prompting the government to seek new economic strategies [4] - Japan, in contrast, experienced rapid economic growth, becoming the world's second-largest economy, leading to an overheated economy and a need for measures to control this growth [4][5] - The Plaza Accord of September 1985 was a significant moment, aiming to address global economic imbalances by promoting the depreciation of the dollar, particularly against the yen, which had implications for both U.S. and Japanese economic policies [5] Real Estate Boom - Following the Plaza Accord, the depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yen had positive short-term effects on both economies, with Japan's real estate market entering a phase of unprecedented prosperity [5][6] - Real estate became a high-return investment tool, with banks loosening lending policies and providing low-interest loans, leading to a surge in demand for real estate [6][7] - The real estate market in Japan saw extreme price increases, particularly in major cities like Tokyo, where property prices reached unprecedented levels [6] Bubble Burst - By 1992, the Japanese real estate market began to show signs of weakness, leading to a rapid decline in property prices as demand plummeted and unsold properties accumulated [8] - The bursting of the real estate bubble resulted in significant financial distress for many investors and homeowners, with many facing negative equity as property values fell below their mortgage amounts [9][11] - The economic impact was severe, with related industries such as construction, finance, and retail suffering greatly, leading to increased bankruptcies and rising unemployment [11][13] Societal Impact - The economic downturn led to widespread despair, with many families unable to cope with financial pressures, resulting in a tragic increase in suicide rates during this period [13][14] - The crisis prompted a societal reflection on economic practices and values, shifting perceptions of wealth and success, particularly regarding real estate as a symbol of status [16] - Interestingly, families that had previously been unable to afford housing found new opportunities as property prices fell, leading to a shift in the housing market dynamics [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of the US dollar and its implications for the Chinese economy, drawing parallels with Japan's past experiences and emphasizing the need for a strategic response from China in the face of potential economic challenges posed by the dollar's strength [2][3][5][7]. Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar serves as both a global trade settlement currency and a reserve asset for central banks, playing a crucial role in maintaining global economic stability while also acting as a financial weapon that can extract wealth from other nations [2]. - The "dollar smile curve" illustrates the dollar's dual nature, with its strength peaking during global financial panic and periods of robust US economic growth, while it weakens during economic downturns [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context - The 1985 Plaza Accord exemplifies the US's strategy of manipulating the dollar to address its trade deficits, which ultimately led to significant economic consequences for Japan, including a massive asset bubble and subsequent economic stagnation [3][5]. - Japan's reliance on US monetary policy and its failure to address underlying economic issues contributed to its prolonged economic malaise, known as the "lost two decades" [5]. Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China is adopting a proactive approach to manage its currency, utilizing a "managed floating exchange rate system" to allow for market-driven fluctuations while maintaining control to stabilize expectations and prevent panic [7]. - The strength of China's industrial system, which encompasses all 41 industrial categories recognized by the UN, provides a solid foundation for economic resilience against external shocks [8]. - China's strategy to attract foreign capital involves opening its bond and stock markets, creating a more appealing investment environment rather than isolating itself from global capital flows [8]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - The nature of US-China relations differs significantly from that of US-Japan relations, with China maintaining greater sovereignty and bargaining power, which influences its strategic decisions in the face of US dollar dominance [8]. - The article suggests that while history may not repeat itself, the dynamics of the current US-China competition are more complex, with China possessing a broader strategic depth and a more robust policy toolkit compared to Japan in the 1980s [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," proposed by the U.S. White House Council of Economic Advisers, aims to reshape global economic governance through high tariffs, dollar depreciation, debt restructuring, and multilateral currency negotiations, reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord [1][2][4] Group 1: Historical Context and Comparisons - The original Plaza Accord aimed to address the overvaluation of the dollar and the growing U.S. trade deficit, resulting in significant dollar depreciation and the accumulation of asset bubbles in Japan [1] - The new "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" is seen as a "Plaza Accord 2.0," attempting to leverage financial measures alongside trade tools to balance U.S. trade relations with other countries [2][4] Group 2: Institutional Implications - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" is viewed as a new framework for a Bretton Woods 3.0 system, integrating finance, trade, and security, characterized by U.S. unilateralism and coercive arrangements [4][5] - The agreement may solidify U.S. institutional advantages, potentially leading to a precedent where the U.S. advances its interests under the guise of bilateral negotiations [5][7] Group 3: Dollar Hegemony and Financial Control - The agreement could create a new pathway for dollar hegemony, combining financial alliances, digital currencies, and asset anchoring systems to regain control over capital markets [8][10] - The U.S. is attempting to establish a dominant position in digital assets and rule-setting before the trend of de-dollarization takes hold [10][13] Group 4: Strategic Responses from China - China is urged to develop a systematic alternative to the current rules, particularly in green finance and digital assets, to enhance its credibility and position in the global financial order [15][18] - The need for China to actively participate in shaping global financial agendas and to build alliances with BRICS, RCEP members, and Belt and Road partners is emphasized [18]

Group 1 - Japan is unlikely to face pressure from the U.S. to intentionally strengthen the yen despite President Trump's criticism of Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. [2] - The U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency remains solid, but it has become more susceptible to selling pressure following Trump's announcement of comprehensive "reciprocal" tariffs [2][4] - The dollar index has experienced its worst first half since 1973, declining by approximately 11%, while the dollar-yen exchange rate has dropped by 7.5% this year [4] Group 2 - The concept of handling currency issues through finance leaders has become ingrained in the U.S. government since Prime Minister Abe successfully persuaded Trump to delegate these matters during his first term [3][4] - Japan has several strategies to leverage in trade negotiations with Washington, such as increasing investments in the U.S. and contributing to Alaska's LNG projects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The former president of the Asian Development Bank, Masatsugu Asakawa, stated that a coordinated devaluation of the US dollar led by the United States, similar to the Plaza Accord, is unlikely to occur in the near future [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a significant perspective on the current global economic landscape and the role of the US dollar [1] - The mention of the Plaza Accord highlights historical precedents in currency valuation and international economic cooperation [1] - Asakawa's insights suggest a cautious outlook on potential future currency interventions by the US [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. has taken a harsh stance against Japan, despite Japan's past support during the Gulf War and alignment with U.S. strategies in the Indo-Pacific region [1][3] - Japan's purchase of F-35 fighter jets is seen as both a payment for U.S. protection and a show of support for U.S. strategies [1] - The U.S. has previously exploited Japan's economy through the Plaza Accord, which forced the appreciation of the yen and weakened Japan's economic growth [3] Group 2 - Japan has overestimated its influence and the strength of its alliance with the U.S., leading to a lack of compromise in negotiations [5] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Japan, contrasting with its more lenient approach towards the UK, indicating a targeted strategy against Japan [7] - Japan's economic development has relied on U.S. industrial transfers, and the current U.S. policies are seen as a means to extract further economic benefits from Japan [9]