Group 1 - The article discusses the structural imbalances in global trade and the concept of the "twin deficits" in the U.S., providing a framework for analyzing potential solutions to these issues [2][8] - It highlights the paradox of Trump's economic policies, which have led to both internal and external imbalances, exacerbating the trade deficit [3][5] - The U.S. current account deficit accounts for 60-70% of the global total, indicating a significant reliance on foreign capital [4][24] Group 2 - The article outlines three potential solutions to the twin deficits: fiscal consolidation, currency depreciation, and adjustments in domestic savings and investment [6][34] - It emphasizes that the U.S. trade deficit is a reflection of domestic savings shortfalls and rising fiscal deficits, with a 1% increase in fiscal deficit correlating to a 0.3-0.5% increase in the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP [5][97] - The historical context of U.S. trade imbalances is provided, noting that the current account deficit has expanded significantly since the 1980s, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis [29][68] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency, which contributes to trade imbalances and the need for the U.S. to maintain a trade deficit to supply dollars globally [41][72] - It mentions that the U.S. trade deficit has not improved despite tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, with the goods trade deficit rising from $790 billion in 2017 to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2023 [37][61] - The article suggests that the structural issues in the U.S. economy, including low savings rates and high consumption, are fundamental causes of the persistent trade deficit [90][97]

新华财经东京9月23日电（记者刘春燕）40年前的9月22日，在美国主导下，包括日本在内的5国在纽约 签署旨在通过政策合作扭转美元升值局面的"广场协议"。正是"广场协议"开启了日元飙升、日本出口企 业遭受重创、日本货币政策被迫宽松化等一系列改变日本的进程，并最终导致日本泡沫经济破灭。 "受对美出口下降拖累，日本整体出口连续4个月下降。预计短期内日本出口仍将保持疲软态势。"明治 安田综合研究所经济调查部经济学家藤田敬史认为，虽然对日本来说美国汽车关税已由27.5%降至 15%，但仍将对出口构成下行压力。此外，美国政府还在考虑对半导体及药品加税，关税对日本经济的 影响仍需持续关注。 日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正表示，政府需"警惕美国关税政策带来的下行风险，尽最大努力缓解美国关 税措施的影响"。 为对冲关税影响，三菱和马自达开始主动减少盈利较低的低价车出口，积极开拓美国之外的市场销路。 丰田等部分日本汽车制造商被迫加大在美国国内的产能，并尽量在美国国内采购零部件。 一家位于东大阪市的弹簧制造厂负责人表示，汽车厂商原本是工厂的重要客户，相关销售额约占公司总 销售额的三成左右。受美国汽车关税政策影响，日本汽车零部件厂商正设法 ...

香港《亚洲周刊》最新一期文章，原题：美联储与财政部的分分合合 二战后，美联储脱离美国财政部 的行政控制，但如今在美债压力下，两者再成权力角斗焦点。 战后，决策者一度担心经济再度陷入大萧条，但实际上更大的挑战来自通胀。1946年至1947年间，美国 消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨17.6%。1950年物价进一步上扬。到1951年初，CPI年化通胀率高达21%， 若再被迫承接政府新发债务，势必引发货币过度发行。 1951年2月，美联储正式通知财政部将不再维持原有利率政策。由于财政部需要进行债务展期与新发 债，迫切需要化解不确定性。最终，双方达成妥协，美联储短期内仍会支持五年期国债价格，但之后市 场将回归自由调节。3月4日，双方宣布已"在债务管理与货币政策上达成完全协议"，此协议开启了政府 证券市场的自由化，使利率逐步由市场决定；亦促使美联储将政策焦点转向银行准备金与货币供给的管 理，并以维持美元购买力为目标。最重要的是，该协议确立了中央银行独立于财政政策与政治压力的原 则。 今天的美国看似在走回头路，意图将美联储与总统行政权重新整合，而此举很可能是为了应对日益严峻 的地缘政治形势。事实上，米兰早前便提出一个被称为" ...

最近几年，美国经济老出点事儿，尤其是银行那边，接二连三地有机构倒闭，这事儿闹得全球金融圈子都跟着晃荡。 话说2023年那会儿，美国银行失败的案子特别扎眼，先是硅谷银行在3月10日栽了跟头，这家银行资产规模高达2090亿美元，主要服务科技初创企业，结果 因为美联储加息太猛，债券价值缩水，客户挤兑资金，它就扛不住了。 紧跟着，3月12日Signature银行也挂了，资产1100亿美元，这家专注加密货币业务的银行同样中了利率上升的招。 到了5月1日，First Republic银行步后尘，资产规模差不多2300亿美元，算是2023年最大的一笔失败案子。 这些银行倒闭直接拉低了全球银行股，美联储赶紧出面干预，联邦存款保险公司接管资产，卖给大银行比如摩根大通，避免更大范围的恐慌。 其实这些失败不是孤立的，美国从2022年开始加息，基准利率一路推到5.25%-5.5%，目的是压通胀，但银行手里那些长期债券价格就崩了。2023年总共五家 银行失败，比前几年多多了。 转到2024年，情况缓和点，只有一两家小银行出问题，比如费城的Republic First银行在4月底失败，资产规模60亿美元，主要原因是管理不善和房地产贷款 ...

一段时间以来，很多声音都在讨论，中国经济是否有可能重蹈日本经济泡沫的老路。中国经济现状究竟 怎样？货币、财政等政策的施行者，是否吸取了日本经济曾经的教训？在汇率、利率、地产以及财政政 策上，中国都做了哪些努力。近日，知名经济学人唐涯，就以上问题在北京专访了北京大学国家发展研 究院徐远副教授。两位经济学人在《两说》节目中对日本《广场协议》的前车之鉴，以及中国经济的韧 性，做了鞭辟入里的精彩分析，这也是中国经济20讲中的一个重要篇章。 两说 更多精彩内容，敬请关注9月17日周三晚22:30 东方卫视《两说》节目，第一财经 9月20日周六晚22:00 播出。 Business Insights dits 东方卫视首播 09\17 22:30 09\20 22:00 第一财经播出 北京大学国家发展研究院 副教授 |唐 涯 经济学人 ...

两说 Business Insights 一段时间以来，很多声音都在讨论，中国经济是否有可能重蹈日本经济泡沫的老路。中国经济 现状究竟怎样？货币、财政等政策的施行者，是否吸取了日本经济曾经的教训？在汇率、利率、地 产以及财政政策上，中国都做了哪些努力。近日，知名经济学人唐涯，就以上问题在北京专访了北 京大学国家发展研究院徐远副教授。两位经济学人在《两说》节目中对日本《广场协议》的前车之 鉴，以及中国经济的韧性，做了鞭辟入里的精彩分析，这也是中国经济20讲中的一个重要篇章。 东方卫视首播 第一财经播出 |唐 涯 经济学人 Busin 09\17 22:30 09\20 22:00 更多精彩内容，敬请关注9月17日周三晚22:30 东方卫视 《两说》节目， 第一财经 9月20日周六晚22:00 播 出。 北京大学国家发展研究院 副教授 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation and historical events from 40 years ago, particularly focusing on the potential for a repeat of the "Black Monday" stock market crash due to the weakening of the US dollar and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [2][5][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - The US dollar has depreciated nearly 10% this year, reaching a three-year low against major currencies, coinciding with Trump's return to the White House [2]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new historical highs, driven by expectations of monetary easing and improved trade relations [4]. Group 2: Historical Comparison - The "Plaza Accord" of 1985 led to a significant depreciation of the dollar while the US stock market experienced a period of unusual prosperity, with the dollar falling 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against other major currencies over 17 months [5][7]. - Despite the dollar's decline, US import prices did not rise significantly due to exporters, including Japan, compressing profit margins to maintain market share [7]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Leadership - Market confidence during the 1985 period was heavily reliant on the credibility of then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who had successfully controlled inflation previously [8][12]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 saw a lack of decisive action when the dollar fell below critical levels, leading to a loss of market confidence and contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [10][11]. Group 4: Implications for Current Market - The article suggests that if Volcker had remained in charge, he would likely have taken action to stabilize the dollar, potentially preventing the market crash [11][12]. - The personal reputation of the Fed Chairman and the market's trust in their commitment to anti-inflation policies are critical in maintaining market stability [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation in the U.S. and historical events from 40 years ago, particularly focusing on the potential for a repeat of the "Black Monday" stock market crash due to factors such as a weakening dollar and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. dollar has depreciated nearly 10% this year, reaching a three-year low against major currencies, coinciding with Trump's return to the White House [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached multiple all-time highs, driven by expectations of monetary easing and improved trade relations [2]. Group 2: Historical Comparison - The article references the "Plaza Accord" of 1985, which led to a significant decline in the dollar and a simultaneous rise in U.S. stock markets, with the dollar falling 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against other major currencies over 17 months [2][4]. - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. import prices did not significantly rise, aided by falling global oil prices, which helped maintain low inflation [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Impact - The market's confidence during the "Plaza Accord" era was largely attributed to then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's reputation for controlling inflation, which reassured investors [5]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 marked a shift, as he failed to respond to critical market signals, leading to a loss of confidence and ultimately contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [6]. Group 4: Hypothetical Scenarios - The article posits that if Volcker had remained in charge, he likely would have acted to stabilize the dollar and control inflation, potentially preventing the market crash [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation in the U.S. shows similarities to historical events, particularly the 1985 Plaza Accord, where a significant depreciation of the dollar coincided with rising stock markets, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the "Black Monday" crash of 1987 [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The 1985 Plaza Accord led to a dramatic depreciation of the dollar, with a 36.5% drop against the yen and a 30.8% to 36.6% drop against major European currencies over 17 months [2]. - Despite the significant decline in the dollar, the U.S. stock market, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached historical highs during this period [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market's confidence during the Plaza Accord era was largely attributed to the credibility of then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who had successfully controlled high inflation prior to the Accord [6]. - The lack of significant increases in import prices, despite the dollar's depreciation, was aided by a drop in international oil prices, which helped to mitigate inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: Leadership Transition - The transition from Volcker to Alan Greenspan in 1987 marked a critical turning point; Greenspan's inaction when the dollar fell below the key 150 yen level led to renewed selling pressure from Japanese investors [7]. - Rising core CPI inflation rates, which reached 4.5% by October 1987, compounded the market's instability, ultimately contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [7]. Group 4: Hypothetical Scenarios - The report suggests that if Volcker had remained in charge, he would likely have intervened to stabilize the dollar, potentially preventing the market turmoil that led to "Black Monday" [8]. - The personal reputation of the Fed Chairman and the market's confidence in their commitment to anti-inflation policies are critical in maintaining market stability [9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the similarities and differences between Chinese and Japanese companies in their overseas expansion efforts, highlighting Japan's extensive experience in this area [4][10]. - Japan's overseas net assets reached $3.36 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 80% of its domestic GDP, showcasing the significant impact of overseas investments on its economy [2][11]. - The Japanese government has established a comprehensive support system for overseas investments, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [15]. Group 2 - The article outlines the stages of Japanese companies' overseas expansion, starting from limited overseas investments before 1980 to a more aggressive approach post-1985 due to the appreciation of the yen and the search for new growth opportunities [4][6]. - The ongoing China-U.S. trade war presents challenges for Chinese companies, with potential outcomes including increased imports from China or direct investments in the U.S., though these options face significant hurdles [9]. - The concept of creating a "shadow China" abroad, similar to Japan's overseas presence, is discussed, emphasizing that achieving similar overseas returns would require substantial annual investments [10][14]. Group 3 - Japanese companies faced challenges in internationalization, particularly in talent acquisition, which they addressed through gradual internal development and learning from experiences [15][16]. - The article emphasizes the importance of respecting local markets and cultures when entering foreign markets, as demonstrated by Japanese companies successfully localizing production in the U.S. [16]. - There is a willingness among Japanese companies to collaborate with Chinese firms in overseas ventures, viewing it as a new growth opportunity [18].