利率债策略
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债市收益率呈下行走势,纯债基金业绩短期反弹
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-03 09:53
Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a downward trend in yields, contrasting with the equity market's pullback, leading to a shift in investment strategies among funds towards shorter durations and a focus on risk management [2][6]. Market Performance - During the week of October 27 to November 3, bond yields declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling approximately 5 basis points to 1.8% and the 1-year bond yield decreasing about 9 basis points to 1.38% [2]. - The average performance of medium to long-term pure bond funds recorded a return of 0.26%, while short-term bond funds achieved 0.11% [2]. Fund Duration Analysis - The median duration of pure bond funds decreased from 2.70 years in Q2 to 2.00 years in Q3, indicating a shift towards shorter duration investments [7]. - The divergence in duration among funds has increased, suggesting differing views among institutions regarding future market conditions [8]. Investment Strategy Shifts - Due to the declining investment attractiveness of the bond market, banks are transitioning from a passive allocation strategy to active management, focusing on trading capabilities and expanding non-interest income [6]. - Analysts predict that with the central bank's resumption of government bond purchases and increased liquidity, the previously pessimistic sentiment in the bond market is beginning to recover [6]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face less pressure from the equity market due to a temporary easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially creating a favorable environment for bond investments [8]. - The fourth quarter may present economic challenges, but a continued loose monetary environment could provide key opportunities for bond allocation as yields rise [8].