LPR连续9个月保持不变，专家：二季度全面政策性降息或有望落地 2月24日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年2月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为： 1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。自2025年5月下调 后，LPR报价已连续9个月保持不变。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，2月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。 王青分析，在年初结构性货币政策工具先行降息之后，二季度全面的政策性降息有可能落地，并带动 LPR报价跟进下调，进而引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。这是2026年促消费扩投资、有效对冲外需放缓 的一个重要发力点。 第 562 期 2026-02-24 焦点关注 宏观动态 央行公开市场单日净回笼9264亿元，明日开展6000亿元MLF操作 2月24日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了5260亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，与此前持平。Wind数据显示，今日有8524亿元7天期和6000亿元14天期逆回购到期，单日净回 笼9264亿元。 同日，央行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2月25日将以固定数量 ...

值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018年～2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收 益，有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源：基金定期报告、Wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国 债ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年～2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 债市有望震荡偏强，资金抢筹债市，资金面看，十年国债ETF（511260）近5日净流入超4.6亿元。 金融街证券指出，近 ...

Fixed Income - Long-term bond yields are expected to decline by 5-10 basis points, with the 10Y and 30Y government bond yields having decreased nearly 10 basis points since January 7, 2026 [2][7] - As of February 6, 2026, brokers and funds have net sold over 108.6 billion yuan in ultra-long-term bonds (remaining maturity over 20 years), while insurance funds have net bought 120.6 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2][7] - The current steep yield curve suggests that banks may increase their allocation to government bonds as their funding costs decrease, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% in 2026 [2][7] Transportation - Korean shipping company Sinokor plans to sell all its container ships to Mediterranean Shipping Company for approximately 2.5 to 3 billion USD and focus on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), which may reshape oil shipping pricing logic [19][20] - The VLCC market is sensitive to supply-side changes, with a significant portion of the fleet expected to reach 20 years of age starting in 2026, potentially leading to a supply shortage and upward pressure on freight rates [21][22] Home Appliances - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, which may lead to a recovery in valuations for home appliance companies, particularly in the white goods sector [23][24] - Recent data indicates that the inventory of commercial housing is gradually decreasing, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in major cities is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of pressure on domestic demand [23][24] Metals and New Materials - Copper prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent data showing a rise in copper stocks across various markets [27][28] - The aluminum market is also facing similar trends, with prices expected to fluctuate as inventory levels rise, while demand remains stable [29] - The supply of tungsten and rare earth elements is tightening, leading to sustained high prices for these materials [5] New Consumption - Huangshan Tourism plans to invest 530 million yuan in a hotel project to enhance its tourism offerings, which aligns with the growing visitor numbers to the Huangshan scenic area [33] - In January 2025, Tmall's beauty sales grew by 24% year-on-year, indicating a stable competitive landscape in the beauty sector [33]

/ 利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.27 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑艺鹏 zhengyp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 2. 《转债 | 高估值下机构如何择券？ -2025Q4 公募持仓点评》 2026-01-25 3. 《期货｜关注反弹持续性》 2026-01-25 核心观点 ❖ 开年以来债市行为怎么看？银行增持动力的确强劲，而交易盘则相对谨慎， 券商在等待右侧，基金在寻求确定性，保险买入纯债整体符合季节性，此外 其他类和保险的行为体现理财规模在延续快速增长。 往后看，我们认为交易盘动能在逐渐恢复，其中券商对 3-10y 国债买入增多， 但对超长国债买入动能依旧不算强；基金恢复相对明显，但还是更青睐票息 思路；银行配置可能持续偏强，因此债市可以维持多头思维，短期内信用可 以更乐观。 ❖ 关注 1：银行开年买债超季节性，大行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beginning of 2026 presents challenges for conservative investors, with a strong A-share market and weak performance in bond funds and wealth management products, leading to increased volatility risks [1][2] Summary of 2025 Bond Market Performance - The bond market in 2025 saw a historical low annual yield of 0.83%, attributed to a divergence between expectations and reality, as well as changes in market structure [1][2] - The rapid rise in bond prices at the end of 2024 was driven by a shift in funds from the stock market due to risk aversion and expectations of significant monetary easing in 2025, which did not materialize as anticipated [2][3] Key Factors Influencing the 2026 Bond Market - The influence of stock market performance on bond funds remains, but the intensity may become more rational, with a potential easing of supply pressure in the bond market [3][4] - The structural changes in traditional investment forces, such as banks and insurance companies, continue to pose challenges for the bond market in 2026 [4][5] Structural Opportunities in the 2026 Bond Market - Despite pressures, there are positive factors, such as the significant amount of maturing deposits expected in early 2026, which may lead to a shift towards stable investment products like bonds [6][7] - The anticipated inflow of funds into wealth management and "fixed income+" products could create structural opportunities for short-term credit bonds and long-term local government bonds [7][8] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The bond market is expected to have limited risk of significant declines, supported by a combination of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at easing pressure on debt servicing [8] - The potential for a significant rise in long-term bonds is limited, while short-term credit bonds may become a focal point for investment as maturing deposits are reallocated [8][9]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The economic structure is shifting towards improvement, with expectations for a strong start in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies, strong export and infrastructure indicators, and early disbursement of funds for "trade-in" programs [1] - Economic data is anticipated to rebound, contributing to a positive economic outlook for the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody amount reached 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease compared to the previous month [2] - The bond market shows a trend where commercial banks are increasing their holdings in interest rate bonds, while credit cooperatives are reducing their positions [2] - The economic characteristics of 2025 indicate a "high before low" pattern, with supply outpacing demand and external demand stronger than internal demand [3] - In December 2025, industrial production growth rates increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while fixed asset investment saw a larger decline [3] - The current liquidity in the bond market is relatively loose, and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - As of January 18, 2026, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 23,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 45.3% [4] - In major cities, Beijing saw 1,398 units sold (-25%), Shanghai 3,534 units (-35%), and Shenzhen 765 units (-75%) [4] - The second-hand housing market also experienced a decline, with a total of 44,000 units sold across 10 cities, down 17.8% year-on-year [4] - In Beijing, 7,033 second-hand homes were sold (-23%), in Shanghai 12,849 units (-8%), and in Shenzhen 2,844 units (-25%) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for Q4 2025 indicates a significant "high first, low later" trend, with supply outpacing demand and external demand stronger than internal demand [4][5]. Economic Data Summary - In Q4 2025, the GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the annual growth rate for 2025 was 5% [4][5]. - The industrial added value for December 2025 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in November [4][5]. - Fixed asset investment for the entire year of 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8%, worsening from a previous decline of 2.6% [4][6]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, down from 1.3% in November, marking a continuous decline over seven months [4][6]. Investment Market Insights - In the bond market, from August 2025 to the present, government bond yields have shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields stable and declining, while long-term yields, especially the 30-year yield, are on an upward trend [7]. - The current loose liquidity and diverging fundamentals suggest a gradually optimistic outlook for the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.75% in 2026 [7]. - In the convertible bond market, as of January 16, 2026, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index has risen by 5.6%, mirroring the 5.5% increase in the overall index, indicating a strong demand for convertible bonds amid a bullish equity market [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in 2025 showed a significant "high in the front, low in the back" characteristic, with supply stronger than demand and external demand stronger than domestic demand. The GDP growth rate in Q1 was the highest at 5.4%, while that in Q4 dropped to the lowest at 4.5%. The main economic indicators were significantly differentiated, with the GDP deflator remaining negative and the inflation environment showing no obvious improvement [2][8]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of the added value of large - scale industries both increased. However, the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment widened, and the growth rates of its three major sub - items continued to decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods continued to fall, and the month - on - month growth rate was significantly weaker than the seasonal level [2][3]. - In the bond market, for interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened significantly. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on the rise. For convertible bonds, since the beginning of 2026, the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On January 19, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for Q4 and December 2025. The real year - on - year growth rate of GDP in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the real year - on - year growth rate for the whole year was 5%. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to December was 3.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 0.9% [1][7][10]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 Overall Economic Situation in 2025 - The economy showed a "high in the front, low in the back" trend. The industrial production growth rate continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, external demand was strong (export growth rate was 6.1% in 2025), while domestic demand was relatively weak (fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8% and social consumer goods retail sales growth rate was 3.7%). The GDP deflator was negative, and the inflation environment did not improve significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents also continued to decline [8][9]. 3.2.2 Added Value of Large - scale Industries in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in November. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.49%, up from + 0.44% in the previous month. Among the three major sectors, the year - on - year growth rate of the manufacturing industry increased significantly, while those of the mining industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased [15]. 3.2.3 Fixed - Asset Investment in December 2025 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, with the decline expanding. The month - on - month growth rate was - 1.13%, also with an expanding decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased, and the single - month year - on - year growth rates were all weak [20][22]. 3.2.4 Social Consumer Goods in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 0.9%, falling for 7 consecutive months. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.12%, significantly lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024. The growth rate of optional consumption slightly stabilized, while the growth rates of necessities and catering services continued to decline [28]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - Interest - rate bonds: Since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, and the long - end yield has been rising. Given the current loose capital situation and the differentiated fundamental trends, investors should be more optimistic about the bond market. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield in 2026 will be 1.75%. - Convertible bonds: Since the beginning of 2026 (as of January 16), the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but more attention should be paid to the structure [4][34].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2025 faced significant challenges characterized by high volatility, low yield space, and thin returns, leading to a complex environment for investment institutions [2][5][9]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market experienced extreme fluctuations, with a notable decline in interest rates compared to the previous year, resulting in a challenging investment landscape [3][5]. - The 10-year government bond yield started at 1.6% and saw rapid increases, peaking around 1.92% in September, reflecting economic recovery expectations and supply pressures [7][8]. - By the end of 2025, the bond market displayed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds rising while short-term bonds showed slight declines, indicating a steepening yield curve [8][10]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Different types of institutions exhibited varied investment behaviors, with large commercial banks and insurance companies showing strong buying interest, while others like city commercial banks and securities firms were net sellers [10][11]. - The investment strategies of institutions shifted towards cautious approaches, focusing on cost reduction and risk management amid a declining attractiveness of the bond market compared to equities and commodities [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - As 2026 begins, the bond market is anticipated to open with a 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.85%, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the first quarter [12][13]. - The market is closely monitoring monetary policy adjustments, with expectations for a gradual approach to easing, influenced by economic recovery goals and structural inflation concerns [14][15]. - Institutions are preparing for a continued volatile environment, with strategies focusing on maintaining trading intensity for excess returns while managing costs effectively [15].

Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 faced significant challenges, characterized by high volatility and a complex interplay of factors affecting investment strategies [1][2][3] - The pressure on institutions to generate returns has intensified, leading to increased competition and operational difficulties in navigating the market [2][3] Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a notable decline in interest rates, with the yield on 10-year government bonds decreasing by nearly 1 percentage point compared to the same period in 2024, resulting in a challenging investment environment [3][5] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated throughout the year, starting at 1.6% and reaching approximately 1.92% by September, reflecting economic recovery expectations and supply pressures [5][6] Institutional Behavior - Different types of institutions displayed varied investment behaviors by the end of 2025, with large commercial and policy banks showing strong buying activity, while other institutions like joint-stock banks and city commercial banks were net sellers [11][12] - The investment strategies of institutions have diverged, with some focusing on short-term trading for excess returns, while others are more cautious, aiming to reduce costs and losses [9][12] Future Outlook - As 2026 begins, the bond market is anticipated to open with a yield of around 1.85% on 10-year government bonds, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the first quarter [13][16] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with institutions adopting a cautious approach and preparing for potential adjustments based on monetary policy developments [15][16]