Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a downward trend in yields, contrasting with the equity market's pullback, leading to a shift in investment strategies among funds towards shorter durations and a focus on risk management [2][6]. Market Performance - During the week of October 27 to November 3, bond yields declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling approximately 5 basis points to 1.8% and the 1-year bond yield decreasing about 9 basis points to 1.38% [2]. - The average performance of medium to long-term pure bond funds recorded a return of 0.26%, while short-term bond funds achieved 0.11% [2]. Fund Duration Analysis - The median duration of pure bond funds decreased from 2.70 years in Q2 to 2.00 years in Q3, indicating a shift towards shorter duration investments [7]. - The divergence in duration among funds has increased, suggesting differing views among institutions regarding future market conditions [8]. Investment Strategy Shifts - Due to the declining investment attractiveness of the bond market, banks are transitioning from a passive allocation strategy to active management, focusing on trading capabilities and expanding non-interest income [6]. - Analysts predict that with the central bank's resumption of government bond purchases and increased liquidity, the previously pessimistic sentiment in the bond market is beginning to recover [6]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face less pressure from the equity market due to a temporary easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially creating a favorable environment for bond investments [8]. - The fourth quarter may present economic challenges, but a continued loose monetary environment could provide key opportunities for bond allocation as yields rise [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has shown significant trading activity and liquidity, with a recent price adjustment and notable inflows, indicating a positive market sentiment towards long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Trading Activity - As of July 22, 2025, the latest quote for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 123.99 yuan, with an intraday turnover of 36.43% and a transaction volume of 6.754 billion yuan, reflecting active market trading [1] - The average daily transaction volume over the past month for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 6.474 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 18.537 billion yuan, marking a new high for the past month [1] - The current share count for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 14.9 million shares, also a new high for the past month [1] - Recent data shows a net inflow of 446 million yuan into the 30-year Treasury ETF, with a total of 623 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 170.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount matching the amount awarded [1] - On the same day, 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the overall duration of pure bond funds has increased, indicating a stronger expectation of declining interest rates among institutions, with the median duration of medium- to long-term interest rate pure bond funds reaching 3.93 years, the highest in three years [1]