12月8日，国家金融监管总局副局长肖远企在亚洲保险论坛上发表主旨演讲时指出，近年来，非银行金 融资产与银行、保险机构的联系日益紧密。尽管银行和保险公司都在努力为信贷和资产配置制定高标准 的解决方案，但紧密的相互联系使得风险更难识别、传播更快。 私募市场的发展为保险公司提供了更多投资机会。肖远企提到，私募市场有助于保险公司优化资产与能 力结构、提升投资回报。但与此同时，私募市场也带来了更高的潜在风险。私募市场的资产通常具有结 构复杂、透明度较低以及流动性较差等特点，且借款人杠杆率高，违约可能性更大。 对于非银金融而言，肖远企指出，从监管视角来看，如何识别风险并防范其快速传导至关重要，强化资 本监管要求、设定大额风险敞口限额势在必行。这有助于防范风险升级。 （原标题：肖远企：非银风险难识别，将强化资本监管防范风险） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 实习生 金颖 周静仪 香港报道 他指出，利率冲击不存在"缓冲期"，其对保险资产负债端的影响往往在短期便会显现。这要求保险公司 必须迅速优化资产负债组合、压缩运营成本并提升投资收益。 近年来，全球利率环境的骤然转变与日益严峻的气候变化正对保险业构成双重挑战。肖远企 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns investors to be cautious of three "bear market" risks in the second half of the year, despite a rapid reallocation to risk assets in Q2, which has led to a return to a "golden girl" scenario pricing [1] Group 1: Key Risks - **Risk 1: Growth Shock** Economic growth may face significant downward pressure in the second half, particularly due to anticipated tariff impacts. The probability of a substantial market pullback is currently higher than that of a significant rise, driven by high valuations, weak leading indicators, and a slight deterioration in the business cycle score [2] - **Risk 2: Interest Rate Shock** Unexpected fluctuations in interest rates pose a second risk. If tariffs do not lead to a slowdown, inflation may rise again, exerting upward pressure on bond yields. The report suggests that long-term bond yields may decline moderately due to a more dovish Fed, but concerns over fiscal policy and rising yields in Europe and Japan could limit this downward space [3] - **Risk 3: Weak Dollar** A continued decline in the dollar may negatively impact multi-asset portfolios denominated in dollars. The report predicts further depreciation of the dollar over the next 12 months, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy and the independence of the Fed [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - **Diversification Strategies** Investors are advised to reassess stock allocations, particularly in multi-asset portfolios dominated by U.S. assets. Diversification through low-volatility stocks, defensive quality stocks, and gold is recommended to mitigate potential losses from growth shocks [2] - **Short-Duration Bonds** To reduce duration risk, investors are encouraged to favor short-duration bonds. Financial stocks, such as bank stocks, may serve as effective hedges against interest rate shocks due to their ability to benefit from a steepening yield curve [3] - **Emerging Markets and Currency Hedging** In a weakening dollar environment, emerging market equities and local currency bonds are expected to perform better. Investors should consider currency hedging and allocating to emerging markets and gold to lower dollar risk [5]