智通财经APP注意到，高盛集团客户的乐观情绪激增至约一年来的最高水平，对全球增长的信心压倒了对地缘政治和宏观经济的担忧。 他在一份致客户的报告中写道："当宏观背景提供支撑时，风险偏好上升本身并不是卖出信号，乐观态势持续的时间可能比大多数人预期的更长。驱动这一 现象的因素是健康的——全球增长乐观情绪已经激增。" 不过，科珀史密斯补充道："在目前这些水平上，小幅回调往往会变得更加频繁，而超额的股票回报则变得更加罕见。" 在连续三年实现两位数回报后，标普500指数在2026年上涨了约0.7%，并在历史高位附近波动。高盛的这一指标与华尔街策略师们的乐观观点相吻合，他们 普遍预计标普500指数今年将再次表现强劲。 地缘政治担忧确实在周三有所突破，由于对美国可能针对伊朗采取行动的担忧，基准指数下跌了约1%。 增长乐观情绪 高盛交易部门的数据显示，高盛的"风险偏好指标"攀升至2025年初以来的最高点，处于历史水平的第96百分位。 高盛董事总经理李·科珀史密斯表示，虽然风险偏好的升高通常被视为投资者过度狂热的信号，但美国和其他地区动态的增长势头可能证明，这一次的看涨 前景是有据可依的。 该行称，这种转变在美国周期性行业尤为明 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns investors to be cautious of three "bear market" risks in the second half of the year, despite a rapid reallocation to risk assets in Q2, which has led to a return to a "golden girl" scenario pricing [1] Group 1: Key Risks - **Risk 1: Growth Shock** Economic growth may face significant downward pressure in the second half, particularly due to anticipated tariff impacts. The probability of a substantial market pullback is currently higher than that of a significant rise, driven by high valuations, weak leading indicators, and a slight deterioration in the business cycle score [2] - **Risk 2: Interest Rate Shock** Unexpected fluctuations in interest rates pose a second risk. If tariffs do not lead to a slowdown, inflation may rise again, exerting upward pressure on bond yields. The report suggests that long-term bond yields may decline moderately due to a more dovish Fed, but concerns over fiscal policy and rising yields in Europe and Japan could limit this downward space [3] - **Risk 3: Weak Dollar** A continued decline in the dollar may negatively impact multi-asset portfolios denominated in dollars. The report predicts further depreciation of the dollar over the next 12 months, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy and the independence of the Fed [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - **Diversification Strategies** Investors are advised to reassess stock allocations, particularly in multi-asset portfolios dominated by U.S. assets. Diversification through low-volatility stocks, defensive quality stocks, and gold is recommended to mitigate potential losses from growth shocks [2] - **Short-Duration Bonds** To reduce duration risk, investors are encouraged to favor short-duration bonds. Financial stocks, such as bank stocks, may serve as effective hedges against interest rate shocks due to their ability to benefit from a steepening yield curve [3] - **Emerging Markets and Currency Hedging** In a weakening dollar environment, emerging market equities and local currency bonds are expected to perform better. Investors should consider currency hedging and allocating to emerging markets and gold to lower dollar risk [5]