Core Insights - The current bond market is in a bottoming phase characterized by a converging triangle pattern and insufficient long positions, suggesting investors should wait patiently for opportunities to gradually accumulate positions when the 10-year government bond yield is in the range of 1.80-1.85% [1][2][27] Historical Context of Bond Market Bottoming - Historically, the bond market has experienced a smooth downward trend followed by prolonged bottoming phases, as seen in early 2015 and before 2019, which eventually led to new downward trends in yields. The current situation in 2025 shows similarities but lacks the stability in high and low points seen in previous bottoming phases, indicating a converging range and insufficient long positions [1][9][11] Current Stage of the Bond Market - The bond market is currently at a stage where the converging triangle pattern indicates a lack of momentum for further price movement in either direction, suggesting a potential re-evaluation of direction. Positive signals include the duration of the current bottoming phase, which has lasted about 7 months, and a recovery in long sentiment in government bond futures as of September 11 [2][28][27] Technical Analysis and Market Signals - The technical analysis indicates that the converging triangle pattern typically signifies a lack of strong momentum, leading to a potential directional choice ahead. The bond market has shown signs of recovery in trading volume and sentiment, with a notable increase in positions across various futures contracts [2][28][30] Economic and Monetary Policy Context - The economic environment in 2025 is comparable to that of early 2015 and 2019, with a slow recovery in the economy and weak financing demand from both households and enterprises. The GDP growth is expected to remain around 5%, supporting a downward trend in bond yields. Additionally, the monetary policy remains accommodative, with recent rate cuts and liquidity injections providing a supportive backdrop for the bond market [13][19][27] Equity Market Performance - The equity market has shown structural differentiation, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks across different periods. In 2025, the market has seen significant gains in mid and small-cap sectors, indicating a trend where growth outperforms traditional sectors, which aligns with historical patterns observed in previous years [23][27]