2026年债市怎么看？ 中证鹏元研发部高级研究员李席丰向《中国经营报》记者分析，债市承压的原因主要有两方面：一方面 是央行买债量低于预期，而且市场预期央行降息更加审慎，市场对货币宽松的预期有所修正；另一方面 是"春季行情"下市场风险偏好提升，股市超预期走强，带动股市股债"跷跷板效应"，推动债市调整。此 外，政府债集中发行、通胀回升预期、超长债跌破关键点位也是债市承压的推动因素。 记者注意到，新规对债市的影响备受关注。李席丰分析，短期来看，新规对债基赎回费的规定较征求意 见稿明显放宽，降低了市场对债基短期赎回压力的担忧，有利于债市情绪的修复。中长期看，新规支持 长期持有，有利于提升债基负债端的稳定性，前期因赎回担忧导致的中长期信用债和二永债利差走阔可 能逐步修复，配置价值相对凸显。此外，短债基金对机构投资者的豁免门槛变高，流动性优势降低，机 构资金可能更多转向货币基金或债券ETF，推动债券ETF扩容。 中金公司方面指出，市场担忧赎回费率改革可能引发公募债基抛售潮，对债市或构成利空影响，而这一 预期可能已经部分反映在前期债券利率的上行中。然而，随着新规落地，债市存在对先前过度悲观定价 进行修正，债券市场有望迎来阶 ...

2026年开局，股债市场上演"冰与火之歌"。 一边是上证指数连阳突破4000点，剑指4100点大关；另一边则是债市迎头撞上"逆风"。在此背景下，超 四成债基开年即出现回撤，中长期纯债型产品成为调整"重灾区"，多只产品年内跌幅超1%；与之相 对，可转债基金表现亮眼，部分产品同期回报已超6%。 市场波动引发资金敏感流动，短短数日，至少有20家基金公司旗下债基因大额赎回被迫提升净值精度， 债券ETF也一改去年巨额流入的态势，出现显著资金外流，超567亿元资金从中撤离。 金鹰基金固定收益研究部人士对第一财经表示，年初债市或有调整压力，但资金面预期长期向好，机构 年度配置逐步展开，中等久期债券性价比或仍存，后续需重点关注银行、保险、理财配置情况。 摩根士丹利基金固定收益投资部联席总监吴慧文告诉第一财经，2026年债市核心运行逻辑将围绕对基本 面和通胀强预期和弱现实之前的差距放大和收敛展开，预计市场呈现宽幅震荡、利率中枢温和抬升的特 征。 债市开年再吹逆风 开年以来，A股市场延续此前强势，上证指数连阳多日突破4000点，并一度逼近4100点。截至1月8日收 盘，上证指数报收4082.98点，年内累计上涨2.88%。与之形 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The report analyzes the recent significant decline in the bond market, attributing it to market reactions to policy announcements and economic forecasts [3][5] - The report highlights that the bond market's bearish sentiment is influenced by expectations of reduced interest rate cuts and concerns over supply-demand imbalances in the coming year [5][6] - It suggests that the market's behavior reflects a tendency to interpret positive news as fully priced in, leading to a more pessimistic outlook [5][6] Group 2: MLED Sector Development - The report discusses the company's strategic focus on the MLED sector, introducing core detection equipment and integrated circuit products to enhance LED display performance [7][8] - It notes that the global LED display market is projected to reach USD 7.971 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2023 to 2028, indicating significant growth potential for the company [9] - The company has established a comprehensive overseas sales system, achieving a 21.31% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, with overseas revenue accounting for 22.89% of total revenue [11] Group 3: Financial Projections and Investment Rating - The report provides updated financial forecasts, estimating the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to be RMB 3.343 billion, RMB 3.742 billion, and RMB 4.234 billion respectively, with net profit projections of RMB 620 million, RMB 806 million, and RMB 1.106 billion [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 6.70, RMB 8.72, and RMB 11.97 for the respective years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24.80, 19.07, and 13.90 [12] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating confidence in its growth prospects within the expanding LED display market [12]

Group 1: Report's Core Information - The report is a fixed - income review titled "Why has the bond market adjusted significantly?" dated December 30, 2025, written by analysts Yan Ziqi and Hong Ziyan [1][2][3] Group 2: Events - On December 29, Treasury bond futures in the morning session broke through multiple points, followed by a decline in spot bonds, and the yield to maturity of 30 - year Treasury bonds rose significantly throughout the day [3][9] Group 3: Reasons for Bond Market Decline - From a news perspective, it is a pricing of the weekend policy combination. The release of the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)" on December 26 made the bond market conjecture a lower probability of interest rate cuts next year, and the National Fiscal Work Conference on December 28 raised concerns about intensified supply - demand contradictions [5][10] - In a bearish market, the market is more likely to believe in pessimistic narratives. Short - term factors include securities firms' selling and a lack of承接 institutions, especially at the end of the year when there are few long - bond承接 institutions, with only insurance institutions as relatively strong buyers [5][10] Group 4: Over - pricing Analysis - In recent weeks, it has been normal for the bond market to decline sharply on Monday/Tuesday and slowly recover from Wednesday to Friday. Considering factors such as the 3 - day trading week, the end - of - year behavior of banks and securities firms, and the trading environment, there is a possibility of recovery, and an over - callback + slow - recovery pattern may be a pricing paradigm [5][11] Group 5: Short - term Concerns - On December 31, pay attention to whether the 30 - year Treasury bonds in the issuance plan are new issues or follow - on issues. Different situations will have different impacts on bond pricing and liquidity [6][11] - After the New Year, observe whether insurance institutions switch to selling Treasury bonds to verify if the purchase of ultra - long bonds at the end of the year is for liquidity management [6][11] - After the New Year, focus on the "good start" of bank credit, whether the divergence between certificates of deposit and the money market continues, and whether there is a possibility of tightening in the money market [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the bond market have led to concerns among investors regarding the performance of wealth management products, with many experiencing net value declines and early terminations [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market has been weakening, with the 30-year government bond futures down 3.72% and the 10-year government bond futures down 0.54% as of December 8 [1] - The decline in bond prices has directly impacted the net value of wealth management products, particularly fixed-income products [1] - A significant number of wealth management products have announced early terminations, with nearly a hundred products terminating between November 1 and December 9 [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Responses and Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the bond market's weakness to a combination of tightening liquidity and adjustments in policy expectations, with the central bank's shift to net absorption of liquidity contributing to the situation [3] - Concerns over new public fund fee regulations have also affected market sentiment, potentially leading to redemptions in bond funds [3] - Despite current market volatility, many analysts believe the adjustments are short-term, with no significant negative changes in the fundamental or policy landscape [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the bond market fluctuations, maintaining asset stability and liquidity is crucial, with cash management products being recommended as a defensive strategy [4] - Investors are advised to focus on underlying assets, management capabilities, and product liquidity, rather than solely on returns [4] - Clear financial planning and appropriate product selection are emphasized as key to achieving investment goals amidst market volatility [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].

岁末年终，受债市波动影响，以债券为主要配置资产的固收类理财产品净值出现明显回撤，引发投资者 关注。12月24日，北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上，有不少投资者反映购买的理财产品净值出现波 动，部分产品甚至出现提前终止的情形；也有不少观望者因产品提前终止、净值下跌等消息望而却步。 对此，多家银行及理财公司发文"科普"，并针对不同风险偏好投资者给出资产配置建议。 债市调整理财产品现回撤 进入年末，债市出现连续调整现象，让不少以债券为主要配置资产的银行理财产品出现净值波动。12月 24日，北京商报记者注意到，社交平台上有不少投资者留言求助，"买入理财产品前净值一直较为稳 定，入手后净值却出现波动"；也有投资者表示，"本想靠理财增厚收益，没想到持有一个月却收效甚 微"；还有不少持观望态度的投资者直言，"看到多款产品提前终止、净值下跌的消息，现在不敢轻易入 手了，担心本金受损"。 从市场表现来看，Wind数据显示，自11月以来债市开启持续调整模式，12月上旬曾短暂反弹，但中旬 再度走弱。截至12月24日收盘，30年期超长期国债收益率报2.2185%，较前一交易日下跌0.45个基点； 10年期国债收益率企稳于1.835% ...

岁末年终，受债市波动影响，以债券为主要配置资产的固收类理财产品净值出现明显回撤，引发投资者关注。12月24日， 北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上，有不少投资者反映购买的理财产品净值出现波动，部分产品甚至出现提前终止的情 形；也有不少观望者因产品提前终止、净值下跌等消息望而却步。对此，多家银行及理财公司发文"科普"，并针对不同风 险偏好投资者给出资产配置建议。 中信证券首席经济学家明明也持相似观点。他表示，近期债市情绪已出现好转，前期调整较大的超长债则开启修复行情， 市场对"跨年行情"的期待重燃。与此同时，近期人民币汇率走强，对债市也构成利多：一方面人民币计价资产吸引力提 升，另一方面货币宽松空间也有所打开，债市仍有修复空间，超长债有望受益于期限利差的回落，更具性价比。 展望2026年债市走势，明明分析称，短期来看，债市面临的扰动因素仍存，权益市场表现较好、通胀预期回升、银行负债 端缩短久期等都是长债的制约因素，但在央行宽松货币政策的支持下，明年长债利率有望迎来阶段性下行行情，全年视角 下长债利率或将先下后上。 债市调整理财产品现回撤 进入年末，债市出现连续调整现象，让不少以债券为主要配置资产的银行理财产品出现 ...

图虫创意/供图 一位基金投资者对证券时报记者表示:"本来今年债券基金的收益就低，一波动就没了。" 近期参与科创债ETF营销的一位券商销售告诉记者，没想到债券市场会突然迎来调整，此前配置科创债 ETF的客户几乎都出现亏损，极小部分资金出现赎回。截至7月25日收盘，近期上市的科创债ETF场内 现价均不足100元，这意味着持有人均未能实现盈利，而年初上市的基准做市信用债ETF的现价也跌至 100元附近。 值得注意的是，此次债市调整有明显的结构性，调整幅度较大的主要是长端利率债以及部分信用债。如 2只场内交易的30年国债ETF近5日跌幅超过1.6%，而短融债ETF价格波动不大。 另一位基金投资者对记者表示:"在关注到债券基金净值调整后，我赶紧去看了下基金账户。其中一只纯 债基金尽管有亏损，但亏损幅度不大，反而是另一只'固收+'基金的收益创下新高了。" 从交易层面看，恒生前海基金固收投资总监李维康分析，股票与商品近期持续上涨，风险偏好提高，使 债市承压。近一周利率曲线先陡峭，长端调整为主，短端在上周初还有下行，此时属于对风险偏好提升 后期限利差需要提升的定价。但是7月23日—7月24日，短端亦跟随长端调整，或许是因为基 ...

Core Insights - The third round of bond market adjustments in 2025 may not be over yet, but there is potential for a delayed cross-year market rally if monetary easing expectations increase in January-February 2026 [1][3][27] Group 1: Understanding Recent Adjustments - The current bond market adjustment shows a structural characteristic where ultra-long-term bonds lead the decline, with the 30-year treasury bond reaching a peak yield of 2.28% on December 16, while the 10-year bond primarily experienced a corrective trend [1][11] - The adjustment in ultra-long-term bonds reflects weakened both allocation and trading power, with a significant increase in the supply of bonds over 10 years, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan by December 19, 2025, accounting for 11.66% of total bond issuance [13][19] - The adjustment pattern indicates that the third round may still be ongoing, potentially mirroring the structure of the second round, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating in an adjustment-recovery-adjustment manner [24][25] Group 2: Comparison of Adjustment Rounds - In 2025, there have been three notable rounds of adjustments, with the first round driven by unexpected tightening of the funding environment, leading to a significant rise in short-term rates [2][19] - The second round was characterized by a simultaneous rise in stock prices and a decline in bond prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and a reduction in bullish sentiment towards bonds [22] - The third round, starting from November 3, 2025, has shown a different driving force, primarily influenced by institutional behavior and the resumption of bond trading, rather than the funding and stock-bond dynamics that characterized the previous rounds [2][22] Group 3: Cross-Year Market Trends - Historically, the bond market has exhibited a calendar effect around the New Year, often showing upward trends before the Spring Festival, with notable increases in bond yields observed in 2022, 2024, and 2025 [3][26] - The 2025 cross-year market saw a decline of approximately 50 basis points in the 10-year bond yield from T-60 to T-18 days before the Spring Festival, followed by a period of consolidation [3][26] - If the third round of adjustments continues, the potential for a delayed cross-year rally remains, contingent on favorable monetary policy developments [27]