2025年10月27日，央行行长表示"目前，债市整体运行良好，我们将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作"。央行 国债买卖的重启明确了货币政策宽松基调的延续，将继续与财政发债协同配合。同时上一轮购买国债的 到期及当前债市较为合理的估值为国债买卖重启提供条件。对债券市场而言，影响整体偏多，债市调整 风险进一步减弱，但预计难以出现像上一轮国债买卖推动收益率大幅下行的情况。 策略上，前期利用国债期货进行空头套保的可适当降低套保比例。我们前期推荐的TS2512合约多单仍 可继续持有，同时可以关注TF合约做多机会。 1 事件回顾 2025年10月27日，央行行长潘功胜在2025金融界论坛年会上表示"目前，债市整体运行良好，我们将恢 复公开市场国债买卖操作"。央行国债买卖重启落地时间略超市场预期，消息公布后债券收益率快速下 行，期债由于当时已收盘，次日开盘四大合约全线跳空高开。 2 事件分析 国债买卖重启的原因及启示 配合财政发力，货币政策宽松基调延续。在9月3日的财政部与中国人民银行联合工作组召开第二次组长 会议，就曾提及"部、行协同配合取得的成效，并就金融市场运行、政府债券发行管理、央行国债买卖 操作和完善离岸人民币国债发行机制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to resume open market operations for government bonds, signaling a potential strengthening of the bond market in the fourth quarter, following a period of adjustment in the third quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts note that the PBOC's announcement has transformed expectations into reality, with recent trading days showing a significant decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, breaking through previous resistance levels [1]. - The bond market had already begun to anticipate the resumption of operations during the third quarter's significant adjustments, indicating a market shift towards a more favorable outlook [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The resumption of open market operations is viewed as a move to enhance monetary policy tools, improve the financial function of government bonds, and facilitate coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, which is crucial for the development of China's bond market [1][2]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at achieving the annual economic growth target of around 5%, especially in light of a slowdown in GDP growth to 4.8% and a negative growth rate in fixed asset investment [2]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the PBOC will likely focus on purchasing short to medium-term bonds, which could alleviate pressure on commercial banks holding bonds and serve a similar purpose to reserve requirement ratio cuts [2]. - The anticipated bond purchases may lead to a steepening of the yield curve, as seen in previous operations where short-term bonds were primarily targeted [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - fall asset spectrum during the bond market adjustment period is: Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds sometimes show resilience beyond their credit ratings in liquidity - driven adjustments, and investors can return to the coupon strategy under liquidity pressure [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Adjustment Review and Core Driving Factors - The bond market generally shows a characteristic of "long bull and short bear". In recent years, the bond market yield has been oscillating downward, but there have been several sharp market drops. Since 2020, the bond market has experienced six significant adjustments. Except for the large - scale and long - lasting adjustment in 2020, during the other five adjustments, the adjustment range of the 10Y Treasury bond yield was generally concentrated between 10 - 30bp, and the adjustment duration was concentrated between 10 - 30 days [2][13]. - The core driving factors of the six adjustments can be summarized into three categories: - Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., May 2020, August 2023, February 2025): Central bank actively tightens or marginally tightens liquidity, rapid increase in capital interest rates, or supply shocks and credit events leading to liquidity stratification. Short - term interest rates usually rise more than long - term ones, and the yield curve flattens bearishly [17]. - Economic growth and inflation expectation drive (e.g., February 2022): Macro - economic data such as PMI and credit are better than expected, or there is significant inflation pressure (PPI, CPI). The market forms a solid consensus of "fundamental improvement", which is the core signal of the bull - to - bear transition. Long - term interest rates rise more significantly, and the term spread may widen [27]. - Policy drive (e.g., September 2024): Caused by major policies such as real estate and epidemic prevention or external events such as trade tariffs, the market's economic expectation for the future changes fundamentally, and funds flow from safe - haven assets to risk assets [28]. 2. Anti - fall Asset Selection Matrix under Different Driving Factors - Credit bonds are afraid of liability - side shocks, and interest - rate bonds are afraid of fundamental repair expectations. When institutional behavior dominates, interest - rate bonds are more anti - fall; when fundamental repair expectations dominate, credit bonds are relatively more anti - fall [29]. - **Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., August 2023, February 2025)**: The anti - fall degree of various assets (the smaller the yield increase, the more anti - fall) is: Low - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > Certificates of deposit ≈ High - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Perpetual and secondary capital bonds (all terms). Under liquidity shocks, low - grade urban investment bonds and interest - rate bonds, especially medium - long - term Treasury bonds, are the most anti - fall. Certificates of deposit have a medium adjustment range as they are directly affected by capital interest rates. Perpetual and secondary capital bonds have the most severe adjustment and are the most vulnerable due to their duration and liquidity premium risks [3][29]. - **Multiple factors such as policy drive + economic growth and inflation expectation (e.g., August 2022, September 2024)**: The anti - fall degree of assets is: Treasury bonds (short - term) > Certificates of deposit > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > High - grade perpetual/urban investment bonds > Low - grade perpetual bonds > Low - grade urban investment bonds. Short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit are relatively insensitive to changes in risk appetite. Long - term interest - rate bonds are significantly adjusted due to improved fundamental expectations. Credit bonds, especially low - grade ones, have the largest adjustment range, and funds flow from low - grade credit bonds to risk assets such as equities. Overall, Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds can attract some investors to adopt the coupon strategy in the liquidity pressure stage due to their relatively high coupon income, thus showing better anti - fall characteristics than high - grade credit bonds in some periods [4][30]. 3. Summary of Common Characteristics of Anti - fall Assets and Investment Suggestions - Assets with strong anti - fall ability generally have higher liquidity, lower duration risk, and stronger safe - haven attributes. The anti - fall ability of low - grade urban investment bonds partly comes from their "high coupon" feature. In periods of high volatility and uncertainty, some investors turn to the "coupon strategy" [37]. - **Investment suggestions**: - Predict the decline space based on driving factors. Find 1 - 2 adjustments with the most similar driving factors, macro - environment, and market structure from historical reviews as a "reference". When expecting liquidity tightening or institutional behavior shocks, significantly shorten the portfolio duration and increase the allocation of certificates of deposit [39]. - Choose to take profits in time based on odds factors. The assets with the largest adjustment in a sharp bond market decline are often those that were over - bought due to crowded trading, such as short - term interest - rate bonds from January to February this year [39]. - Build a "core - satellite" asset portfolio: Use interest - rate bonds and certificates of deposit as the core ballast to provide anti - fall ability during bond market adjustments, and use perpetual and secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds to seek higher coupons and excess returns [39]. - Use perpetual and secondary capital bonds as the "reverse indicator" of the market: They are both a signal of market over - optimism and risk accumulation when their spreads narrow significantly and trading is crowded, and an early indicator of market adjustment, suggesting reducing risk assets and switching to a defensive mode [39]. - Use the low - grade urban investment bond coupon strategy as a buffer for fluctuations: In the stage of rising market volatility without systematic credit risk, carefully select short - to - medium - term low - grade urban investment bonds with reliable cash flows, and adopt the "buy and hold to maturity" strategy to obtain high coupons. In the current market environment where the downward space of interest rates is limited and volatility is increasing, the allocation value of the coupon strategy is prominent [40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. The short - term market shows signs of cooling [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term bullish, the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. For the medium and long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 20**: The four major A - share stock indexes showed a callback, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.63% to 3863.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.98% to 12813.21 points, the ChiNext Index rising 1.98% to 2993.45 points, and the STAR 50 Index rising 0.35% to 1367.9 points. Market turnover was 17,513 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,031 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+3.21%), coal (+3.04%), and power equipment (+1.53%) led the gains, while non - ferrous metals (-1.34%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.88%), and beauty care (-0.38%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,064/121/1,248 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 32, - 116, - 101, and 186 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +497, +217, - 274, and - 440 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 179.98, 160.44, 31.42, and 4.46 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 13.81%, - 12.61%, - 3.85%, and - 0.83% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 11%, 24%, and 37% respectively [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 20**: The bond market adjusted. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.04%, TF fell 0.11%, T fell 0.14%, and TL fell 0.37% [3]. - **Cash Bonds**: For the currently active 2512 contracts, the CTD bonds and their corresponding data are as follows: for the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.003, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +2bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.02, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220017.IB, with a yield change of +3.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.047, and an IRR of 1.73%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220024.IB, with a yield change of +1.88bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.085, and an IRR of 1.03% [3]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank injected 189 billion yuan and withdrew 253.8 billion yuan in open - market operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [3]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [10].

Summary of Conference Call on Bond Market Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the bond market, specifically the performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025. Key Points and Arguments Bond Market Performance - The bond market experienced a prolonged adjustment in Q3, with a minor decline in yields, contrasting with the rapid adjustments seen at the beginning of the year [1][3] - It is anticipated that the bond market will perform better in Q4 compared to Q3, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach 1.7% initially, and potentially drop to 1.65% if it breaks through [1][4] Economic Indicators - China's economy showed a quarter-on-quarter growth of over 1% and a year-on-year growth exceeding 5% in the first three quarters, indicating that the economy has not significantly weakened [1][5] - A low interest rate environment is aligned with the current economic fundamentals, but further weakening of the fundamentals is necessary for lower interest rates [1][5] Impact of U.S.-China Trade Tensions - Ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S.-China trade tensions could affect the capital and bond markets, necessitating caution in investment strategies [1][6] - The market currently expects a tough stance from the Trump administration, but there is significant uncertainty regarding future trade policies [1][7] Market Dynamics - Trade tensions influence the bond market through equity market fluctuations and monetary easing [1][8] - The correlation between the equity and bond markets has weakened as the stock market rises above 3,900 points, indicating that further equity gains may have limited negative impacts on the bond market [1][8] Fund Sales and Redemption Fees - The most significant impact from increased fund sales and redemption fees has already passed, with redemption fees fully accounted for in fund assets, thus not significantly affecting overall market points [1][9] - However, certain bond types, such as long credit bonds, may still face some pressure [1][9] Future Outlook - The expected recovery range for Q4 is between 1.65% and 1.7%, with no significant risks or changes in odds currently visible [1][10] - A detailed outlook for 2026 will be provided in the annual strategy report [2][10]

Group 1 - The bond market is undergoing a "stress test" as investors shift focus to the rising A-share market, leading to significant liquidity pressure on bond funds [1][2] - Over 16 fund companies have announced adjustments to the net asset value precision of their bond funds in response to large redemptions since the National Day holiday [1][2] - The recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to institutional asset allocation changes following the third quarter's market adjustments and potential impacts from public fund fee reform [2][3] Group 2 - As of October 16, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 16.84% year-to-date, while the 10-year government bond yield reached 1.8449% [1][2] - Nearly half (48%) of bond funds have experienced net value declines in the past three months, with 3566 funds reporting negative returns [3] - Pure bond funds, especially medium to long-term ones, have faced the most significant pressure, with nearly 70% of these products showing negative returns [3] Group 3 - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to continue influencing market dynamics in the fourth quarter, with a potential shift in investor preferences [4][5] - Market analysts suggest that the recent tightening of funds has been limited, and there is a possibility of a rebound in bond yields, although the overall trend remains uncertain [4][5] - Institutional behavior and the pending public fund sales regulations are critical variables that could impact the bond market's volatility in the near term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery before and after the holiday, driven by increased risk aversion leading to a decline in interest rates [1] Group 1: Market Performance - During the six working days from September 28 to September 30 and October 9 to October 11, bond market sentiment improved, with yields declining for several consecutive days [1] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by over 5 basis points, with the most significant drops occurring on September 30 and October 11 [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in yields on September 30 was influenced by rumors of the central bank restarting government bond trading [1] - On October 11, the market's risk aversion was significantly boosted by renewed threats from the U.S. to impose additional tariffs [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market will continue to face various disturbances from the equity market and policy changes in the short term [1] - The adjustment phase that has persisted since July has lasted for three months, and while the downward trend has slowed, further catalysts are needed to break the current oscillation pattern in interest rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the cost - effectiveness of the coupon strategy is further enhanced against the backdrop of high uncertainty in the bond market direction. The 1 - 3 - year weak - qualification urban investment sinking strategy is recommended, and the yields of 1 - 2 - year AA(2), 2 - 3 - year AA, and AA(2) urban investment bonds are between 2.09% - 2.32%, with a large balance of outstanding bonds. Second, the super - decline feature of secondary perpetual (Er Yong) bonds is obvious, and the yields of 3 - year large - bank capital bonds and 2 - year AA perpetual bonds are between 2.0% - 2.07%, having fallen to a level with coupon value. The 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have a large decline in this round of adjustment, and the current yields are all above 2.1%, which are high - quality coupon assets for accounts with stable liability ends. For ultra - long - term bonds, although the cost - effectiveness of coupons continues to increase after adjustment, the liquidity has not seen marginal improvement, and it is still only recommended for allocation - type institutions to consider [3][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Current Bond Market Situation - Last week, the bearish force in the bond market remained strong, but with the bond - buying by large banks and the central bank's liquidity support, interest rates generally stabilized, while the decline of credit bonds was relatively high, especially for Er Yong bonds and ultra - long - term credit bonds, showing an "over - decline" trend. From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, 5Y treasury bonds decreased by 0.7BP, increased by 2.7BP, 2.8BP, 1.8BP, 0.5BP respectively, while the yields of AAA medium - term notes with the same maturities increased by 5.3BP, 6.5BP, 6.8BP, 9.0BP, 9.7BP respectively [1][10]. - The performance of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to weaken, with the decline exceeding that of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The yields of 10Y AAA/AA + medium - term notes increased by 11.32BP and 10.32BP respectively, and the yields of 10Y AAA/AA + urban investment bonds increased by 11.90BP and 8.90BP respectively. The yield of 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 16.19BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds recovered by 0.21BP [1][12][13]. - The "volatility amplifier" feature of Er Yong bonds reappeared, with the decline of each maturity exceeding that of ordinary credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 5.15BP, 8.94BP, 11.60BP, 12.29BP, 17.93BP, 18.31BP, 16.19BP respectively. The part of the curve above 2 - year is still 30BP - 63BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025, and the yields of maturities above 3 - year have exceeded the levels of the bear - flattening period in the first quarter [2][17]. Analysis of Trading Behavior - In terms of active trading, the bearish force of Er Yong bonds was strong overall, with the selling force of trading desks stronger than the buying force of allocation desks. From September 22 to September 26, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of Er Yong bonds was 92.50%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 10.00%, 100.00% respectively. Last week, trading desks represented by public funds strongly sold Er Yong bonds and only had net purchases of short - term credit products. At the same time, allocation desks such as wealth management and insurance institutions bought oversold Er Yong bonds at high prices, but the buying force was weaker than the selling force of public funds [2][19][20]. - The selling market of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to strengthen throughout the week. From September 22 to September 26, the proportion of discount transactions of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 65.00%, 72.50%, 95.00%, 100.00%, 75.00% respectively. The discount range was not low, and about 25.5% of the discount transactions had a range of more than 4BP, indicating a strong selling willingness in the market [22]. Comparison of the Two Rounds of Bond Market Adjustments in 2025 - The bond market adjustment in the first quarter was mainly driven by the unexpected tightening of the capital market, resulting in weaker performance of the short - and medium - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year AAA urban investment bonds increased by more than 40bp, while the yields of long - term bonds increased by less than 35bp [26][29]. - The bond market adjustment since mid - July in the third quarter was mainly due to the strong performance of the commodity and equity markets, which increased institutional risk appetite. Institutions were very cautious about duration, and short - duration bonds had strong anti - decline properties. From July 18 to September 29, the yield increase of 1 - year urban investment bonds was within 15bp, while the yields of AAA and AA + urban investment bonds with maturities of 7 - year and above increased by more than 40bp [26][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9][36]. - As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level; the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 3.8%, a decline from July. There was still deflation risk with CPI at - 0.4% and PPI at - 2.9%. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. Since late August, stocks and bonds have gradually become desensitized. Considering the sluggish economy in August, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, and there was still deflation risk. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. It is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][10]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the situation of 30 - year treasury bonds, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [3][11]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.3 trillion. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 233,878 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.9% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [12]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large, but it decreased significantly compared with the week before last. A total of 1,386 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, all of which were local government bonds. By term, 161 billion yuan with a 15 - year term, 482 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 743 billion yuan with a 30 - year term were issued [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 256 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 12,544 billion yuan, accounting for 13.4% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume increased by 91 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.1% [29]. 3.3.2 Yields - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 1BP, 3BP, 2BP, and 3BP respectively [36]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 35BP, a change of 3BP from the week before last, at the 15% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 8BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 19BP, with changes of 1BP and 4BP respectively from the week before last, at the 8% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [47]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 closed at 114.19 yuan, a decrease of 0.6%. The total trading volume was 742,500 lots (- 56,124 lots), and the open interest was 171,700 lots (an increase of 2,178 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the week before last, and the open interest increased slightly [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently facing adjustments due to the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fee adjustments. The selling pressure from funds is testing the承接 capacity of allocation investors. However, the bond market does not need to be overly pessimistic as the fund redemption pressure has not spread to form a negative feedback loop. The 10Y Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reach the annual high of 1.90%, which can serve as a stable anchor for bond asset pricing. Meanwhile, medium - term credit bonds are facing a process of re - finding the peak after ultra - long bonds [5][30][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Recent Bond Market Adjustment: Fund Selling Pressure Tests the承接 Capacity of Allocation Investors - **Market Reaction to the Draft**: After the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fee adjustments on September 5, the selling pressure from trading investors increased, testing the承接 capacity of allocation investors. The bond market declined continuously from Tuesday this week and rebounded strongly on Thursday afternoon. On September 25, the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond reached a high of 2.1425%, approaching the annual high [1][8]. - **Expected Redemption by Institutions**: Insurance, bank self - operation, and wealth management may redeem some bond funds. Bank self - operation may increase its direct participation in the bond market, leaving only medium - and long - term pure bond funds with strong active management capabilities. For insurance, the upcoming implementation of the new accounting standards in 2026 and the draft for soliciting opinions reduce its willingness to allocate funds, but the redemption pressure is controllable. Bank wealth management is expected to have a more cautious and long - term allocation style for funds, and the short - term holding demand for medium - and short - term bond funds may shift to ETFs and inter - bank certificate of deposit funds [2][9][10]. - **Impact on Bond Types**: The change in the bond market investor structure means the repricing of various bond types, especially the bonds preferred by public funds (secondary and perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long bonds). From the perspective of institutional behavior, public funds have been continuously selling these bonds since September 5, and the selling continued from the 22nd to the 24th of this month, although the intensity has eased. In terms of interest rate changes, the bonds preferred by public funds have led the decline. As of September 24, the interest rates of 3 - 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds have increased by more than 20BP compared to September 5, and the interest rates of various maturities of China Development Bank bonds have also increased more than those of Treasury bonds and local government bonds [3][4][24]. 2. Medium - Term Credit Bonds are Facing a Process of Re - finding the Peak after Ultra - long Bonds - **Market Outlook**: When allocation investors are absent, it is difficult to be bullish on the bond market, but there is no need to be bearish either as the negative feedback loop has not formed. The 10Y Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reach the annual high of 1.90%, which can stabilize the pricing of bond assets [5][30][31]. - **Ultra - long Bonds**: The supply - demand mismatch problem of ultra - long bonds persists. The key is to observe the stabilizing behavior of large banks to determine the "desirable range." The continuous progress of ultra - long bond issuance has put pressure on the interest rate risk of large banks, but as market - makers, they have the obligation to maintain market price stability and may increase their承接 capacity during market adjustments, as seen on September 25 [5][32]. - **Medium - Term Credit Bonds**: The buying power of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, especially 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds, is gradually weakening. The allocation investors' desirable entry points may be significantly raised. The main buying forces of credit bonds, funds and wealth management, are expected to be affected. Funds may shrink in scale due to the adjustment of redemption fees, and wealth management will face full - scale valuation rectification in the fourth quarter, reducing its acceptance of high - volatility bonds. Insurance is also gradually withdrawing from the secondary and perpetual bond market. In this adjustment process, 1 - 2Y bonds are expected to stabilize earlier than 3 - 5Y bonds [6][32].