[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 信用：控制久期，静候时机 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 在经历了前期持续的下行之后，债市在本周迎来调整，利率债整体上行， 带动信用债收益率上行。分品种来看，二永债上行幅度高于普信债，部 分低等级的票息信用债收益率甚至进一步下行。分期限来看，5 年以上 的超长信用债收益率上行幅度高于中短期信用债。从信用利差来看，二 永债利差上行，普信债利差多被动压降。 如何理解近期二永债走势？ 2025 年下半年以来，二永债相比普信债经历了持续走弱-相当-持续走强 的过程。我们将 2025H2 走弱的原因归结为 4 点：金融债增值税加税， 公募基金赎回新增导致市场担忧情绪升温，摊余成本债基只能买普信 债，保险公司全面实施新会计准则带来的调仓诉求。 进入 2026 年以后，多数不利因素均成为历史，摊余成本债基影响难言 消退，但结合三方数据来看，受益于股市的良好表现，固收+基金申购 量增长明显，带来了二永债的额外买盘；且前期债市下行，市场情绪较 好，二永债也相对受益。 利差低位，后市如何展望？ 近期，随着前期债市持续下行，信用债收益率利差同步下行，目前信用 ...

近期，债市在多重利空的影响下延续调整走势，尤其是超长端调整幅度较大，30年期国债期货创2025年以来的 新低。虽然2025年12月31日，债基赎回费率新规靴子落地，监管态度明显软化，缓解了市场的担忧情绪，但年 初开盘债市仍然面临多重利空因素。一方面，国债单期发行规模增加，供给压力加大，债券供需问题再度引发 市场担忧。另一方面，2025年12月央行买债规模仅500亿元，不及市场预期，货币宽松预期降温。此外，最新公 布的制造业PMI及通胀数据均超预期，经济基本面改善迹象明显，债市承压。 今年以来，长端利率面临基本面、股市以及供求结构的利空扰动。2026年一季度政府债继续"靠前发力"，1月供 给占比较去年进一步提升，尤其是30年期债券占比较高导致市场对超长端供需结构的担忧升温。目前1月已披露 地方债发行计划超8000亿元，而需求承接力度不足，叠加PMI和通胀数据超预期、年初股市和商品市场"开门 红"，长端债券市场压力不减。 近期经济基本面出现阶段性修复，对债市形成利空压制。相关数据显示，2025年12月制造业PMI较前值上升0.9 个百分点，至50.1%，表现超预期，主要受国内春节偏晚拉长节前备货周期、政策性金融工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to strengthen at the beginning of the new year, while the bond market is experiencing consecutive adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 1.90% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has reached 1.90%, a level it previously touched twice last year before entering a downward trend [1] - There is market speculation on whether the current yield will replicate past trends, drawing attention from investors [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Private equity institutions believe that the bond market's acceptance of recession narratives has significantly decreased [1] - The previous "lying win" investment strategy, which relied on declining interest rates and extended durations, is gradually becoming ineffective [1] - Fixed-income-like products are expected to see growth opportunities within investment portfolios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong start to the new year, while the bond market is undergoing continuous adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 1.90% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has reached 1.90%, a level it touched twice last year before entering a downward trend [1] - There is market speculation on whether the current yield will replicate past trends, which has garnered attention [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Private equity institutions believe that the bond market's acceptance of recession narratives has significantly decreased [1] - The previous "lying win" investment strategy, which relied on declining interest rates and extended durations, is gradually becoming ineffective [1] - Fixed-income-like products are expected to see growth opportunities within investment portfolios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has been under pressure since 2026, with the recent implementation of new regulations affecting market sentiment and presenting potential investment opportunities for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Pressure Factors - The bond market is facing pressure due to lower-than-expected bond purchases by the central bank and a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, leading to a correction in expectations for monetary easing [1][2]. - The "spring market" has increased risk appetite, with a strong stock market performance causing a "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds, contributing to the bond market's adjustment [1]. - Additional factors include concentrated government bond issuance, rising inflation expectations, and key levels being breached in ultra-long bonds [1]. Group 2: Impact of New Regulations - The new regulations have alleviated concerns regarding short-term redemption pressures on bond funds, which is expected to help restore market sentiment [2][3]. - The regulations support long-term holding, enhancing the stability of bond fund liabilities, and may gradually repair the widening credit spreads seen in medium to long-term credit bonds [2][3]. - There is a potential shift in institutional investor funds towards money market funds or bond ETFs due to increased thresholds for short-term bond funds, which could lead to an expansion of bond ETFs [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests stable growth with low inflation, and monetary policy will remain supportive but cautious regarding rate cuts, leading to a weak and fluctuating bond yield environment [4][5]. - The overall strategy for government bonds will focus on defensive positioning, with opportunities to increase allocations during periods of easing monetary expectations and to reduce during inflationary pressures [4]. - Credit spreads are expected to remain low, with opportunities to explore long-end credit bonds after adjustments, and convertible bonds may present structural opportunities as supply becomes limited [4][5].

Group 1 - The stock market is performing strongly with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points and aiming for 4100 points, while the bond market is facing headwinds with over 40% of bond funds experiencing declines at the start of the year [1][2] - The 10-year government bond yield has reached 1.8943%, nearing the critical 1.9% level, putting pressure on many bond funds, particularly medium to long-term pure bond funds [2][3] - Convertible bond funds have shown strong performance, with some products returning over 6% year-to-date, contrasting with the weak performance of pure bond funds [1][2] Group 2 - There has been a significant outflow of funds from bond ETFs, with over 567 billion yuan withdrawn since the beginning of 2026, reversing the previous year's trend of substantial inflows [3][4] - Specific bond funds have experienced large redemptions, leading to adjustments in net asset value precision to protect remaining investors [3][4] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with analysts suggesting that the bond market will experience wide fluctuations and a gradual increase in interest rates [1][5] Group 3 - Analysts highlight that the bond market is facing challenges due to strong stock market performance, rising supply pressures, and limited central bank bond purchases [5][6] - The introduction of new fund fee regulations may temporarily boost market sentiment, but ongoing supply pressures and credit conditions are likely to hinder a clear trend in the bond market [5][6] - The focus for 2026 should be on managing market rhythm and identifying opportunities amidst high volatility and low interest rates [6]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The report analyzes the recent significant decline in the bond market, attributing it to market reactions to policy announcements and economic forecasts [3][5] - The report highlights that the bond market's bearish sentiment is influenced by expectations of reduced interest rate cuts and concerns over supply-demand imbalances in the coming year [5][6] - It suggests that the market's behavior reflects a tendency to interpret positive news as fully priced in, leading to a more pessimistic outlook [5][6] Group 2: MLED Sector Development - The report discusses the company's strategic focus on the MLED sector, introducing core detection equipment and integrated circuit products to enhance LED display performance [7][8] - It notes that the global LED display market is projected to reach USD 7.971 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2023 to 2028, indicating significant growth potential for the company [9] - The company has established a comprehensive overseas sales system, achieving a 21.31% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, with overseas revenue accounting for 22.89% of total revenue [11] Group 3: Financial Projections and Investment Rating - The report provides updated financial forecasts, estimating the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to be RMB 3.343 billion, RMB 3.742 billion, and RMB 4.234 billion respectively, with net profit projections of RMB 620 million, RMB 806 million, and RMB 1.106 billion [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 6.70, RMB 8.72, and RMB 11.97 for the respective years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24.80, 19.07, and 13.90 [12] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating confidence in its growth prospects within the expanding LED display market [12]

Group 1: Report's Core Information - The report is a fixed - income review titled "Why has the bond market adjusted significantly?" dated December 30, 2025, written by analysts Yan Ziqi and Hong Ziyan [1][2][3] Group 2: Events - On December 29, Treasury bond futures in the morning session broke through multiple points, followed by a decline in spot bonds, and the yield to maturity of 30 - year Treasury bonds rose significantly throughout the day [3][9] Group 3: Reasons for Bond Market Decline - From a news perspective, it is a pricing of the weekend policy combination. The release of the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)" on December 26 made the bond market conjecture a lower probability of interest rate cuts next year, and the National Fiscal Work Conference on December 28 raised concerns about intensified supply - demand contradictions [5][10] - In a bearish market, the market is more likely to believe in pessimistic narratives. Short - term factors include securities firms' selling and a lack of承接 institutions, especially at the end of the year when there are few long - bond承接 institutions, with only insurance institutions as relatively strong buyers [5][10] Group 4: Over - pricing Analysis - In recent weeks, it has been normal for the bond market to decline sharply on Monday/Tuesday and slowly recover from Wednesday to Friday. Considering factors such as the 3 - day trading week, the end - of - year behavior of banks and securities firms, and the trading environment, there is a possibility of recovery, and an over - callback + slow - recovery pattern may be a pricing paradigm [5][11] Group 5: Short - term Concerns - On December 31, pay attention to whether the 30 - year Treasury bonds in the issuance plan are new issues or follow - on issues. Different situations will have different impacts on bond pricing and liquidity [6][11] - After the New Year, observe whether insurance institutions switch to selling Treasury bonds to verify if the purchase of ultra - long bonds at the end of the year is for liquidity management [6][11] - After the New Year, focus on the "good start" of bank credit, whether the divergence between certificates of deposit and the money market continues, and whether there is a possibility of tightening in the money market [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the bond market have led to concerns among investors regarding the performance of wealth management products, with many experiencing net value declines and early terminations [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market has been weakening, with the 30-year government bond futures down 3.72% and the 10-year government bond futures down 0.54% as of December 8 [1] - The decline in bond prices has directly impacted the net value of wealth management products, particularly fixed-income products [1] - A significant number of wealth management products have announced early terminations, with nearly a hundred products terminating between November 1 and December 9 [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Responses and Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the bond market's weakness to a combination of tightening liquidity and adjustments in policy expectations, with the central bank's shift to net absorption of liquidity contributing to the situation [3] - Concerns over new public fund fee regulations have also affected market sentiment, potentially leading to redemptions in bond funds [3] - Despite current market volatility, many analysts believe the adjustments are short-term, with no significant negative changes in the fundamental or policy landscape [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the bond market fluctuations, maintaining asset stability and liquidity is crucial, with cash management products being recommended as a defensive strategy [4] - Investors are advised to focus on underlying assets, management capabilities, and product liquidity, rather than solely on returns [4] - Clear financial planning and appropriate product selection are emphasized as key to achieving investment goals amidst market volatility [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].