Key Insights - The report highlights the updated monthly interest rate timing strategy, which includes enriched factor indicators and differentiated weight settings, leading to improved predictive accuracy [12][10][5] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Atour (ATAT.O) with a 37.4% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, reaching 2.47 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 39.8% to 425 million yuan, exceeding expectations [13][11] - Shenzhen International (00152.HK) reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.9%, but a net profit decline of 24.9% due to the absence of prior REIT gains [16][14] Group 1: Atour (ATAT.O) - The company achieved a RevPAR of 343 yuan, recovering to 95.7% of the same period last year, with an occupancy rate (OCC) of 97.4% and an average daily rate (ADR) of 98.2% [13] - Atour's retail business saw a GMV of 1.144 billion yuan in Q2, a significant year-on-year increase of 84.6%, with online sales maintaining a 90% share [15] - The company has adjusted its full-year retail revenue guidance to a 60% year-on-year increase based on current growth trends [15] Group 2: Shenzhen International (00152.HK) - The company confirmed a profit increase of approximately 290 million yuan from the sale of residential projects, contributing to overall performance despite a net profit decline [16] - The logistics park transformation project is expected to provide significant profit elasticity, with estimated tax-adjusted returns exceeding 156.58 billion yuan [16] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 3.081 billion, 3.430 billion, and 3.925 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively [16] Group 3: Steel Industry Insights - Baosteel (600019) reported a revenue of 151.372 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 4.879 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.28% decline in revenue but a 7.36% increase in net profit [20] - The company achieved a steel production volume of 25.46 million tons, with a gross profit per ton increasing by 56.53% year-on-year [20] - The report indicates that the high-end product segment continues to grow, contributing to overall revenue stability in the steel sector [23]

· 证 券 研 究 报 告 · 似曾相识燕归来：10年国债利率月度餐时 利率择时策略研究系列之一 证券分析师:黄伟平 A0230524110002 奕强 A0230524110003 主要内容 随着债市阶段性进入低利率震荡行情，择时的重要性愈发凸显。我们从固定收益分析逻辑出发，本着框架可解释、结论有依据、策略能落地的原 则，推出《申万宏源固收利率择时策略研究白皮书》，从利率方向、利差走势、期现套利、久期轮动、ETF组合等维度提供择时研究投资参考。 ■ 经典框架下的主观研判仍是债市研究的主流，本研究探索通过定量模型的方法加以补充和验证。 ■ 基于经济基本面和市场环境特征的历史相似性,建立月度利率中枢预测和择时模型。 ■ 模型预测方向胜率较高: ■ 模型预测失误样本复盘来看,往往是当月受到超预期政策的影响。 风险提示：模型计算可能存在误差，指标选取可能不够全面，历史回测不代表未来 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 · 指标选取方面,兼顾时效性强、数量适宜、认可度高等特征,覆盖经济增长、物价变化、资金面、市场现状等维度。 模型设计方面，借鉴经典的k近邻 (k-Nearest Neighbor ...