3. 澳新银行：降低利率不足以解决泰国的经济增长问题 澳新银行研究负责东南亚和印度的首席经济学家Sanjay Mathur在一份报告中说，降低利率不足以解决泰 国的经济增长问题。他指出，2025年下半年的增长受到短途游客减少和泰国南部洪灾的影响。然而，泰 国2026年的前景受到结构性因素的影响，包括收入增长放缓和出口可能会对家庭消费造成压力。他表 示："可能推迟至议会选举结束的刺激性财政政策，以及（泰铢）更具竞争力，同样至关重要。"澳新银 行继续预计，央行将在2026年第一季度将其政策利率再下调25个基点。 4. 分析师：英国央行很可能会把任何降息行动描述为渐进的风险管理转变 2. 荷兰合作银行：2026年欧元兑美元上行空间受限，或维持区间震荡 交易平台Capital.com高级市场分析师Daniela Hathorn说："由于通胀率仍高于目标，服务业价格看起来仍 有粘性，英国央行政策制定者不太可能发出明显的鸽派信号。相反，英国央行很可能会把任何降息行动 描述为渐进的风险管理转变，而不是全面的宽松周期。" 荷兰合作银行外汇分析师简·弗利指出，尽管德国财政支出有望于明年最终推动该国经济摆脱停滞，但 欧元市场已为 ...

债 券 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 2025 年 12 月 18 日 30Y 国债的"前世今生"：供需结构、 定价权迁移与曲线重定价 ⚫ 30Y 国债定价权发生了三次迁移，30Y 国债"资产荒"和 30Y 国债流动性改善是驱动定 价权转移的逻辑主线。 ⚫ 前世：2022 年之前 30Y 国债关注度不高。 ◼ 2022 年之前，30Y 国债供给规模远低于 10Y 国债，流动性不强，主要买入力量为 保险公司。 ◼ 交易盘对 30Y 国债参与不多，当债市未形成一致性的向上或向下方向时，决定配置 盘对 30Y 国债买入力量的重要因素在于静 ...

民生银行首席经济学家温彬：2024年底至2025年初，债市利率经历快速大幅下行，对货币政策宽松和基 本面走弱存在过度定价。2025年5月降息之后，10Y国债利率并未明显下行，并在下半年基本面边际变 化较小的情况下持续上行，一定程度上是对前期过度定价的修正。 在此基础上展望2026年，货币政策 的影响更趋于中性，基本面的边际好转将逐步进入债市利率定价的主要逻辑。同时考虑公募基金新规、 理财估值整改等对债市资金的分流作用，预计10Y国债利率中枢小幅上移的可能性更大，主要在 1.6%-2.0%区间运行。 ...

如果说空间止损是已经证明你的操作是错误的；那么，时间止损就是一定的时间内你的逻辑"未被证明正确"，它不一定非要证明你错了，但在规定的时间 内没有证明你的入场逻辑或入场理由是对的，你就应该离场。 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展1309亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1223亿元逆回购到期，净投放86亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.27%附近，DR007在1.44%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 15) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (12 | 成交通占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.35 | 0 | | 1.88 | 8 | 75026. 76 | 670. 01 | | 89.84 | | R007 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Year - end allocation of ultra - long bonds is weak. The problem of insufficient ultra - long bond underwriting has intensified this week, driving up the 30Y Treasury bond rate. Although some institutions have increased their allocation, funds still have weak buying power due to redemption pressure [1][10]. - Banks' willingness to allocate ultra - long bonds in the secondary market has decreased due to primary underwriting and IRRBB assessment pressure. Insurance funds continue the trend of stock - bond rebalancing and focus on local bonds and long - term credit bonds [1]. - There are feasible paths to solve the ultra - long bond underwriting problem, such as controlling the duration of new government bonds, central bank's purchase of ultra - long Treasury bonds, guiding non - bank funds to participate in subscriptions, and reducing the pressure on banks' book interest rate risk indicators [2]. - The central bank maintains a supportive attitude. The carry trade strategy is dominant, and investors can moderately participate in band trading after adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market sentiment was weak, with the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond rates rising by 1bp and 7bp respectively. The market showed different trends on different days due to factors such as PMI data, stock market performance, and policy expectations [9]. - The allocation of ultra - long bonds at the year - end is weak. Banks' willingness to allocate ultra - long bonds in the secondary market has decreased, and insurance funds focus on local bonds and long - term credit bonds [1][10]. - There are feasible paths to solve the ultra - long bond underwriting problem, and the central bank's supportive attitude remains unchanged. The carry trade strategy is dominant, and investors can moderately participate in band trading [2][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and funding rates declined. From December 1st to 5th, the central bank's net withdrawal was 8480 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 decreased by 3bp compared to November 28th [28][29]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first rose and then fell this week. Except for the 1Y and 3Y Treasury bonds, the rates of other key - term Treasury bonds increased. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields rose by 1bp and 7bp respectively compared to November 28th [37]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond term spread widened significantly, and the duration of bond funds decreased. The 30Y Treasury bond weekly turnover rate continued to rise to 35%, and the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.3% [43]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased compared to last week. The net financing of Treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit turned positive, and the average issuance rate increased [57][63]. 3.3 Economic Data - Since December, movie consumption has been significantly stronger than seasonal trends, and the freight rate index has weakened. Real estate, consumption, export, and industrial production show different trends [69]. - Infrastructure and price high - frequency data show that the mill operation rate has rebounded, inventory indicators have continued to decline marginally, and most price indicators have increased [72]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - US consumer confidence slightly increased in December, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen. US bonds, Japanese and Korean bond markets declined. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread widened, and the Sino - US 10Y Treasury bond spread widened [77][78][81]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rebounded this week. Shanghai copper rose significantly, and the Nanhua live - hog index weakened. The performance of major asset classes is: Shanghai copper > rebar > Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > crude oil > Chinese bonds > convertible bonds > US dollar > live hogs [82]. 3.6 Policy Review - On December 5th, relevant policies such as the adjustment of insurance company risk factors, the management method of financial leasing company business, and articles on capital market development were released. On December 4th, an article on the construction of the monetary policy system was published. On December 1st, the list of infrastructure REITs project industries was released [86][90][91].

本周10Y国债利率与上周基本持平，而30Y国债利率则上行近7BP。 30年国债期货不仅抹平去年"适度宽松货币政策"以来的全部涨幅，甚至还倒亏了不少， 原来"超长债"的真实含义是"超偿债"！ | | 近半年 ▲ | 近一年 | | --- | --- | --- | | 工具製元A | -7.99% | -3.22% | | 富丰和纯债A | -7.84% | -6.34% | | 天来稳健添利A | -7.03% | -6.16% | | 眼瑞夏一年定开债 | -6.75% | -5.23% | | 果兴尊益利率债6个月: | -6.62% | -1.91% | | J裕A | -6.28% | -2.27% | | 上证30年期国债ETF | -6.13% | -1.67% | | 中债-30年期国债ETF | -6.11% | -1.56% | 今天小作文传12月会议重提jzjx，带动债市情绪有所好转。 但债农都在自嘲：怕不是降准降息，而是降职降薪啊！ 如今又是一年12月，站在岁末年初的节点，似乎90%以上的投资人都在预测2026年将是股市大年。 重仓30Y国债的债基近半年亏损超6%，听说有投资经理濒临抑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the central bank's actions and their impact on liquidity and interest rates, particularly in the bond market. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 1,808 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,564 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,756 billion yuan [1] - An announcement was made for a 10,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for December 5, 2025 [1][3] - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - The 10-year government bond yield opened higher at 1.845% and fluctuated, reaching a peak of 1.861% before settling at 1.8500% [3] - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.49% [2] - The market reacted to the Financial Times' commentary on "short-term tightening and long-term easing," leading to fluctuations in bond prices and yields [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article reflects a sense of uncertainty among investors, with questions about the central bank's support for the market, likening it to a daily inquiry from stock and bond investors [3] - The sentiment is further illustrated by the humorous commentary on market expectations, highlighting the disconnect between investor hopes and market realities [3]

Report Summary 1. Core Issues Addressed - Analyze the reasons for the recent decline in the bond market - Provide an outlook for the subsequent market trends [3] 2. Core Views - Interest rate decline requires positive factors for catalysis, and the yield curve may remain steep due to supply - demand dynamics - For band trading, it is advisable to avoid 30 - year treasury bonds for now. If investing in 30 - year treasury bonds, attention should be paid to the potential increase in liquidity of Special 02 and Ordinary 02 in the future - The coupon strategy has relatively higher certainty under loose liquidity conditions [6][8][18] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Event - In the past month, despite many positive factors in the bond market (weak fundamentals, loose funds, less supply in the fourth quarter, and the traditional year - end front - running behavior of institutions), the market has seen more declines than gains, and ultra - long bonds have performed particularly weakly. As of December 2, 25 Special 02 has reached its highest level since listing [4][13] 3.2 Comments - **Central Bank's Bond Transactions**: In November, the central bank's treasury bond transactions were only 50 billion yuan. After the news was announced, the active 30 - year treasury bond showed a repair of about 0.5 basis points, indicating that the previous pessimistic expectations had materialized. The central bank's bond transactions are mainly for government bond issuance and to maintain liquidity, with limited actual benefits to the bond market [6][14] - **Banks' Bond Sales for Profit - Taking**: This year is the second year with a significantly higher proportion of ultra - long bond supply. As of December 2, the net financing of treasury bonds this year was 4.97 trillion yuan, of which bonds with a maturity of over 10 years accounted for 30% (1.48 trillion yuan), compared with 28% in 2024 and 7% in 2023. Due to duration assessment and profit requirements, banks have a "negative feedback" effect on ultra - long bonds. Some banks, such as rural commercial banks, are unable to absorb more ultra - long bonds, and banks as a whole have the demand to sell old bonds through AC/OCI accounts to realize floating profits [6][15] - **Trading - Desk Negative Factors**: The trading volume of 10 - year treasury bonds has significantly declined, with the daily trading volume of the active 10 - year treasury bond dropping from about 60 billion yuan to about 30 billion yuan. From the CNEX divergence index on December 2, the main selling institutions are funds and securities firms. Public funds are facing the uncertainty of new redemption fee regulations, and securities firms are still short - selling 30 - year treasury bonds by borrowing them [6][8][18] - **Insurance Institutions' Investment Preference**: This year, the main investment of insurance institutions is local government bonds, which may further increase the volatility of 30 - year treasury bonds [8][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investors should not fear buying at low yields, but rather be cautious when significant positive news leads to a surge in both volume and price [1]. Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing around 1.80%, with slight fluctuations observed [3][5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 195.5 billion yuan matured [3]. - The market is transitioning to a balanced liquidity state as the tax period ends, leading to a decline in funding rates, with DR001 around 1.42% and DR007 around 1.51% [3][5]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market shows a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.805% and fluctuating to 1.807% [5][6]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable despite overnight declines in overseas risk assets [5]. Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.49% (down 9 basis points), R007 at 1.52% (down 1 basis point), and R014 at 1.56% (down 1 basis point) [4]. - The overall trend indicates a slight decrease in interest rates across the board, reflecting a more favorable funding environment [4].

【笔记20251117— 0.3BP玩一天（+中日关系紧张+股市小幅下跌+资金面收敛转松=微下)】 交易量小，说明市场多空分歧大，互相不让价；而交易量大，说明多空双方在某一个阶段，对价格都非常认可，多空能量也将集中释放。此后，必然要做 休整，重新聚集能量。可归纳为： 能量聚集 - 能量释放 - 中场休息 - 能量再聚集 - 再释放 - 再休息。 ——笔记哥《应对》 今日10Y国债利率最低1.800%、最高1.803%，0.3BP玩一天。债农：低波之后必见高波。上一次还是2024年6月，10Y国债困在2.30%附近装死，之后两个 月下行20BP。这次能不能也来个"向下高波"？ 外交部提醒大家近期避免"赴日"，股民表示：领导放心，我们只想"俘日"！今日大A小跌0.46%，日经225微跌0.1%，有点来气。不过听说高市早苗正在反 省其涉台言论，还算识相！ 【今日盘面】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1199亿元逆回购到期，净投放1631亿元。 税期资金面收敛转松，资金利率上行，DR001在1.51%附近，DR007在1.52%附近。 | | | | 银行间 ...