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银行自营的△EVA平衡点
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-12 03:45
行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 银行自营的△EVA 平衡点 在银行机构行为研究中,市场喜欢基于贷款与债券 EVA 比价效应,去判断债券点位对于银行 而言,是否具有性价比。 这一比价逻辑成立的前提条件,是认为银行资产配置会严格执行全行一盘棋策略,资产负债管 理部属于"强势部门",能够充分引导各业务条线基于 EVA 比价配置资产。 然而,银行在信贷与债券资产之间的遴选,EVA 只是参考指标之一,还需要综合考虑国家政策 导向、监管要求、资产业务带来的一揽子综合收益,以及开展投资业务的能力等。因此,我们 认为,单纯比较贷款与债券的 EVA,对于投资的价值并不大,信贷与债券之间定价信号的相互 传导,应该是中期逻辑,而非短期变量。 我们认为,将 EVA 与资产结构变迁的历史轨迹有机结合,动态测算银行配置贷款和债券资产 的 EVA 平衡点,似乎是一种可行的尝试。基本思路如下: 1、以 10Y 国债和对公贷款为例,用△EVA=10Y 国债 EVA-对公贷款 EVA 衡量两类资产的相对 性价比,用债券投资/对公贷款衡量的是银行资产配置偏好。 2、两者的预期逻辑应该是正比例关系:当△EVA 上行时,意味着国债性价 ...
从三个细节谈起,债券调整到位了吗?:债市机构行为周报(9月第4周)-20250929
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-29 14:32
| 研究所: | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师: | | 颜子琦 | S0350525090002 | | | | | yanzq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | : | 郭溪源 | S0350125090019 | | | | guoxy@ghzq.com.cn | | 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益专题研究:转债抢权配售策略怎么看? *颜子琦,范圣哲》——2025-09-24 《固定收益点评:债市性价比如何?*靳毅》—— 2025-09-08 《债券研究周报:存款搬家进行时,对债市影响几 何*靳毅,刘畅》——2025-09-02 2025 年 09 月 29 日 债券研究周报 《固定收益点评:9 月资金面怎么看?*靳毅》—— 2025-09-01 《固定收益专题研究:本轮牛市,可转债怎么看? *靳毅,范圣哲》——2025-08-31 [Table_Title] 从三个细节谈起,债券调整到位了吗? 债市机构行为周报(9 月第 4 周) 投资要点: 利率破位后,机构行为的三大变化与后续展望 9 月第 4 周债市走势震荡,根据 Wind 统计,截 ...
8月央行信贷收支表要点解读:存款“财富化”加速,债券利率或进入合意配置区间
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-18 14:40
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend of "wealthization" of deposits is accelerating, with a notable shift from traditional savings to non-bank deposits, indicating a potential for increased investment in low-risk financial products [4][6] - The credit growth is slowing down, with large banks focusing on supporting credit growth through bill discounting and bond investments, while smaller banks are experiencing a contraction in deposits [5][12] - The average cost of liabilities for listed banks is expected to decline, enhancing the banks' asset allocation capabilities and potentially leading to a recovery in self-operated investment demand [6][16] Summary by Sections Deposit Trends - In August, large banks saw a decrease of 169.5 billion yuan in demand deposits and a modest increase of 159.7 billion yuan in time deposits, both weaker than seasonal trends [4][11] - Non-bank deposits continued to grow, with an increase of 591.9 billion yuan in August, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards higher-yielding short-term financial products [4][12] Credit and Investment Dynamics - The credit rhythm remains slow, with large banks experiencing a reduction in credit attributes and an increase in funding attributes, supported by a 19.5% year-on-year growth in bond investments [5][16] - Smaller banks are facing challenges in credit growth due to weak demand and a strategic shift to reduce low-priced loans and high-risk exposures [5][13] Future Outlook - The average cost of liabilities for listed banks is projected to decrease to below 1.6% in the second half of 2025, which may alleviate the pressure on banks' asset allocation [6][16] - The ongoing "wealthization" of deposits is expected to lead to a decline in the stability of bank liabilities, necessitating a more diverse supply of medium- to long-term base currency [6][19] Investment Recommendations - The trend of asset "de-involution" and the wealthization of deposits are likely to benefit comprehensive service banks, particularly state-owned large banks and resource-endowed banks [7][16] - The banking sector continues to attract stable capital due to its strong dividend attributes, with a focus on low-weight stocks benefiting from this trend [7][16]
华源晨会精粹20250916-20250916
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-09-16 13:52
Investment Insights - The overall economic growth rate in Q3 2025 is expected to slow down, with a rising possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year [2][11] - August retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with notable growth in furniture and home appliances [12][13] - The fixed asset investment has weakened for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5% from January to August 2025 [8][9] - The import and export growth rates have shown a temporary decline, with total trade value increasing by 3.5% year-on-year in the first eight months [9][10] Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, with a projected yield for 10-year government bonds between 1.6% and 1.8% [11] - The current yield for 10-year government bonds is around 1.8%, presenting a favorable cost-benefit ratio [11] New Consumption Sector - The retail sales of essential goods have shown steady growth, while discretionary spending in categories like jewelry and communication devices has increased significantly [12][13] - Online retail sales have accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [7][12] Company Analysis: Fujida (835640.BJ) - In H1 2025, Fujida reported a revenue of 408 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 37.18 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year [22][23] - The company has seen a significant recovery in defense orders and is actively expanding into medical and low-altitude applications [22][24] - The sales of RF coaxial connectors have steadily increased, supported by a recovery in defense orders [23][24] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries and has made breakthroughs in medical and maritime sectors [24][25]
2025年8月物价点评:物价总体延续低位运行
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-09-11 08:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the price index was under marginal pressure, with both CPI and PPI year-on-year in the negative range. The year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.4%, and the month-on-month was flat. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat [1]. - The year-on-year pressure on CPI and flat month-on-month may be affected by the seasonal weakness of food prices and high base. In the future, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base, while service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. - The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for the first time in six months. The month-on-month turn to flat was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. - The downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is believed that the downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year, the capital side will continue to be loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self-operated allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - In August 2025, CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, month-on-month was flat, both down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of core CPI continued to expand to 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the improvement trend of domestic demand [1]. - The year-on-year decline of CPI food prices has been negative for seven consecutive months. In August 2025, it decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Food and tobacco had a drag of about -0.74 percentage points on CPI year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, mainly driven by industrial consumer goods and service items [1]. - Looking forward, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base. With relevant policies, service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. PPI Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous decline for eight months [1]. - From the sub-items, the year-on-year decline of production materials narrowed, up 1.1 percentage points from July to -3.2%, and the year-on-year decline of living materials slightly expanded, down 0.1 percentage points from July to -1.7% [1]. - The month-on-month turn to flat of PPI was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. Economic and Bond Market Situation - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and will return to around 1.65% in the next six months [1].
【笔记20250910— 债市空头 大秀肌肉】
债券笔记· 2025-09-10 11:41
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.80%, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [3][6][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 30.4 billion yuan, with a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan after 22.91 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3]. - The liquidity in the market is stabilizing, with the DR001 and DR007 rates around 1.43% and 1.48% respectively [4]. - The stock market showed slight gains, while the bond market faced continued selling pressure, leading to a rise in yields [6][7]. Group 2: Yield Movements - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.7925% and peaked at 1.8325% before settling at 1.816% [6][7]. - The bond market is characterized by a lack of support, with futures being dominated by bearish positions, indicating a need for signs of short covering to stabilize the market [7]. Group 3: Trading Data - The weighted average rates for various repos on September 10, 2025, were as follows: R001 at 1.46%, R007 at 1.50%, and R014 at 1.51% [5]. - The total transaction volume for repos was approximately 74,596.27 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 94.54% compared to previous periods [5].
【兴证固收.利率】四问“股债跷跷板”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 11:50
Group 1 - The current market is experiencing a "strong stock and weak bond" seesaw pattern, with the equity market breaking through key levels while the bond market remains under pressure [2][4] - Historical analysis shows that there have been six notable "strong stock and weak bond" periods in the past decade, with the most recent one starting in late June this year [2][4] - The initiation of this pattern typically occurs when stock valuations are low and attractive, while bond yields have already declined significantly after a bull market [4][8] Group 2 - The bond market's performance during these "strong stock and weak bond" periods has shown that the adjustment in bond yields is often not closely correlated with stock market movements, but rather with the factors driving stock price increases and central bank monetary policy [15][20] - In previous cycles, the duration of the "strong stock and weak bond" periods ranged from 15 to 456 days, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing gains between 13% and 98% [15][26] - The bond market's yield curve indicates that short-term bonds are more influenced by monetary policy and liquidity conditions than by stock market performance [15][20] Group 3 - The conclusion of previous "strong stock and weak bond" patterns has typically been driven by a weakening equity market, often due to regulatory tightening, rapid stock price increases leading to profit-taking, or external factors [26][29] - Market expectations regarding policy changes can also lead to the end of the "seesaw" pattern, as seen in notable periods such as April 2019 and October 2024 [29][30] - The current outlook suggests that the probability of transitioning to a "dual bull" market is low, with continued pressure from rising equity prices on the bond market [32][34] Group 4 - The current sentiment in the bond market indicates a potential for a short-term rebound, particularly if the 10-year government bond yield can break below the critical level of 1.75% [40] - The recent rapid increase in valuations in the technology sector may lead to a slowdown in further stock price increases, which could alleviate some pressure on the bond market [40]
机构继续看多债市,本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF(511030)净值相对稳健且回撤可控
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 07:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the stock market has decoupled from the bond market, with a continued bullish outlook on bonds [1] - The overall profit growth rate for all A-shares in the first half of 2025 has not improved compared to the first quarter, with revenue growth remaining sluggish [1] - Since September 24, 2024, the current stock bull market has lasted nearly one year, with the All A Index doubling in value [1] Group 2 - The bond market has seen a net issuance of 14.3 trillion yuan in the first seven months of this year, with banks increasing their bond investments significantly [1] - The stock bull market has not impacted the total deposits in the banking system, indicating a structural shift in financing needs [1] - The convertible bond index is nearing historical highs, suggesting a cautious optimism for convertible bonds, with future attention on stock market changes and approval for new convertible bond issuances [2] Group 3 - The recommendation is to cherish yields above 2% for 30-year government bonds and 5-year capital bonds, as there may be opportunities to approach 1.6% for 10-year government bonds in the coming months [2] - The recent performance of the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best control over drawdowns, indicating relative stability and manageable risk [2]
利率周报:国内债市回调,美国9月降息概率上升-20250824
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-24 14:17
Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the document. Report Core Viewpoints - From January to July, the year-on-year growth of the national general public budget revenue was only 0.1%, and the tax revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting weak economic recovery momentum. The fiscal expenditure increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a high increase of 9.8% in social security and employment expenditure, indicating increased policy support. The LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, and with the Fed signaling a possible September rate cut, domestic capital interest rates are expected to remain low, and the capital market may continue to be loose [2][4][73]. - This week's meso - level data shows that consumption and transportation continue to recover, but the real - estate chain remains sluggish, and industrial product prices are differentiated. The bond market adjustment is mainly due to the "stock - bond seesaw" effect and institutional behavior disturbances. As ultra - long bonds held by bond funds and securities firms' proprietary trading are transferred to insurance funds and other allocation players, the subsequent impact of the stock market on the bond market may be significantly weakened, and the bond market is expected to gradually return to fundamental and capital - market pricing [2][11][75]. - Short - term bond market is suppressed by sentiment, but continuous central bank easing and banks' proprietary trading allocation needs provide support. The peak of net government bond issuance this year has passed. After September, the net issuance of government bonds may not exceed 25% of the annual plan, and interest - rate bonds may see a recovery window. The report maintains that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. Currently, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is close to 1.8%, with high cost - effectiveness. In the next six months, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is expected to return to around 1.65%, and the yield of the 5Y national and regional secondary capital bonds will fall below 1.9%. Investors should cherish 5Y capital bonds and 30Y Treasury bonds with yields above 2% [4][11][75]. Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic News - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 13.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, tax revenue was 11.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The national general public budget expenditure was 16.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Social security and employment expenditure increased by 9.8% year - on - year, and debt interest payment expenditure increased by 6.4% year - on - year [4][12]. - On August 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged for four consecutive months [4][15]. - On the evening of the 22nd, Fed Chairman Powell signaled a possible September rate cut at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Market expectations for a September rate cut soared to over 90% [4][18]. 2. Meso - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption: Continuous Recovery - As of August 17, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars was 5.9 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 6.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. As of August 22, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 123,676.2 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [19]. - As of August 15, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.652 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%, and the total retail sales were 4.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [21]. 2.2 Transportation: Active Logistics - As of August 17, the container throughput of ports was 6.753 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. As of August 22, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 4,061.8 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [25]. - As of August 17, the railway freight volume was 7,966.0 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5,493.0 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [28]. 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates: Strong Upstream, Weak Downstream - As of August 20, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 77.5%, a year - on - year increase of 2.8 percentage points. As of August 21, the average asphalt operating rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [33]. - As of August 21, the soda ash operating rate was 88.8%, a year - on - year increase of 6.5 percentage points, and the PVC operating rate was 75.6%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9 percentage points. As of August 22, the average PX operating rate was 85.2%, and the average PTA operating rate was 76.4% [36]. 2.4 Real Estate: Continued Downturn - As of August 22, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.541 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%. As of August 15, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.433 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [39][42]. 2.5 Prices: Differentiated Industrial Products, Pressured Agricultural Products - As of August 22, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 27.3% and a 2.9% decrease from four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.8 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9% and a 9.8% increase from four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 6.3% and a 3.0% decrease from four weeks ago [43]. - As of August 22, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 698.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and an 8.9% increase from four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.8 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% and a 4.4% decrease from four weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3,248.6 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% and a 1.9% decrease from four weeks ago [47]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Bond Market Adjustment - On August 22, overnight Shibor was 1.42%, down 1.80BP from August 18. R001, R007, DR001, DR007, IBO001, and IBO007 all showed different degrees of decline or increase compared to previous periods [54]. - On August 22, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.38%, 1.63%, 1.78%, and 2.08% respectively, up 1.3BP, 3.8BP, 3.6BP, and 3.0BP respectively from August 15. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.56%, 1.77%, 1.88%, and 2.18% respectively, up 3.7BP, 3.9BP, 2.1BP, and 3.0BP respectively from August 15 [59]. - On August 22, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.43%, 1.74%, and 1.95% respectively, up 5.0BP, 5.0BP, and 10.6BP respectively from August 15. The yields of AAA 1 - month, 1 - year, AA+ 1 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.49%, 1.67%, 1.50%, and 1.69% respectively, up 1.9BP, 2.5BP, 0.9BP, and 1.5BP respectively from August 15 [61]. - As of August 22, the ten - year Treasury bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.3%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, down 7BP, up 6BP, up 1BP, and up 1BP respectively from August 15 [64]. - On August 22, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.13 and 7.18 respectively, down 50 and 18 pips respectively from August 15 [67]. 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. On August 22, the estimated average duration was about 5.1 years, a decrease of about 0.09 years compared to last week [70]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. On August 22, the estimated median and average duration were about 2.9 years, an increase of about 0.11 years compared to last week [72]. 5. Investment Recommendations - After securities firms' proprietary trading and bond funds reduce their durations, the bond market may experience a good market. The short - term bond market is suppressed by sentiment, but central bank easing and banks' proprietary trading allocation needs provide support. The peak of net government bond issuance this year has passed. After September, the net issuance of government bonds may not exceed 25% of the annual plan, and interest - rate bonds may see a recovery window. The report maintains that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. Currently, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is close to 1.8%, with high cost - effectiveness. In the next six months, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is expected to return to around 1.65%, and the yield of the 5Y national and regional secondary capital bonds will fall below 1.9%. Investors should cherish 5Y capital bonds and 30Y Treasury bonds with yields above 2% [4][11][75].
债市短评:债市可能与股市逐步脱钩
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-24 07:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, expecting the 10Y Treasury yield to return to around 1.65% in the next six months and the 5Y national and regional bank secondary capital bonds to reach below 1.9% [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may gradually decouple from the stock market as the long - term bond holdings of securities firms' proprietary trading and bond funds decline significantly. The recent bond market correction is due to the systematic active reduction of duration by bond funds and securities firms' proprietary trading, not related to the economic fundamentals [1] - Since 2010, only stock bull markets driven by fundamentals have led to bond bear markets, while those driven by funds have not. The current stock market rally may be driven by funds and has a weak relationship with fundamentals [1] - The diversion of funds from the bond market by the stock market is limited. The growth of the bond investment of bank proprietary trading is significant, and the scale growth of wealth management products is less affected by the stock market [1] - There are multiple reasons to be bullish on the bond market in the short - term, including continuous central bank easing, increasing economic downward pressure, possible restart of central bank's Treasury bond purchases, continuous decline in bank liability costs, and the passing of the peak of government bond net issuance [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond - Stock Relationship - From July 1 to August 22, 2025, in the secondary trading of inter - bank market interest - rate bonds, securities firms' proprietary trading net - sold 479 billion yuan, including 114.6 billion yuan of bonds with a remaining maturity of over 20 years; public funds (excluding money - market funds) net - sold 436 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, including 60.5 billion yuan of those with a maturity of over 20 years. As the long - term bonds held by bond funds and securities firms' proprietary trading are transferred to insurance funds and other allocation players, the impact of the stock market on the bond market will weaken [1] - Since 2010, there have been three major stock market bull markets: the 14Q4 - 15Q1 bull market was driven by funds, resulting in a bull market for both stocks and bonds; the 2017 and 2020 - 2021 bull markets were driven by economic recovery, leading to a bear market in bonds. The 2024 "924" stock market rally led to a rapid adjustment in the bond market, but the bond market stabilized quickly after the stock market peaked on October 8 [1] 3.2 Diversion of Funds - As of the end of July 2025, the bond - holding scale of bank proprietary trading reached 99 trillion yuan, accounting for 52% of the total scale of China's bond market. In the first seven months of 2025, the net issuance of Chinese bonds totaled 14.3 trillion yuan, and the bond investment balance of the banking industry increased by 9.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.5% [1] - The diversion of funds from the bond market by the stock market is mainly reflected in the possible moderate increase in the stock investment ratio and decrease in the bond investment ratio of flexible allocation funds, annuities, and insurance funds during a stock bull market, but the actual diversion scale is limited. The scale growth of wealth management products is due to the substitution of deposits and is less affected by the stock market [1] 3.3 Reasons for Bullish on the Bond Market - Central bank's continuous easing: Since 25Q2, the DR001 and DR007 interest rates have dropped significantly, indicating a shift from "de - facto interest rate hike" in 25Q1 to "de - facto interest rate cut". It is expected that the capital interest rate will remain low and have low volatility in the next six months [1] - Increasing economic downward pressure: Consumption subsidies may overdraw the demand for household appliances, the consumption growth rate started to decline in July, the real estate market remains sluggish, and the investment growth rate has dropped significantly, so the economic downward pressure may increase significantly in the second half of the year [1] - Possible restart of central bank's Treasury bond purchases: Considering the recent significant rebound in Treasury bond yields, indicating an oversupply of Treasury bonds, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases when the 10Y Treasury yield reaches above 1.8% [1][2] - Decrease in bank liability costs: As the deposit interest rates have been significantly reduced in the past few years, the bank liability cost rate is expected to decline quarter - by - quarter. The 10Y Treasury bonds have certain allocation value for most bank proprietary trading, and the weak credit demand may prompt banks to increase bond investment [1][2] - Passing of the peak of government bond net issuance: As of August 22, the net issuance of government bonds since the beginning of the year has reached 10.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 75% of the annual plan, and the net issuance scale in Q4 is expected to be small [2]