Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investors should not fear buying at low yields, but rather be cautious when significant positive news leads to a surge in both volume and price [1]. Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing around 1.80%, with slight fluctuations observed [3][5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 195.5 billion yuan matured [3]. - The market is transitioning to a balanced liquidity state as the tax period ends, leading to a decline in funding rates, with DR001 around 1.42% and DR007 around 1.51% [3][5]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market shows a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.805% and fluctuating to 1.807% [5][6]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable despite overnight declines in overseas risk assets [5]. Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.49% (down 9 basis points), R007 at 1.52% (down 1 basis point), and R014 at 1.56% (down 1 basis point) [4]. - The overall trend indicates a slight decrease in interest rates across the board, reflecting a more favorable funding environment [4].

【笔记20251117— 0.3BP玩一天（+中日关系紧张+股市小幅下跌+资金面收敛转松=微下)】 交易量小，说明市场多空分歧大，互相不让价；而交易量大，说明多空双方在某一个阶段，对价格都非常认可，多空能量也将集中释放。此后，必然要做 休整，重新聚集能量。可归纳为： 能量聚集 - 能量释放 - 中场休息 - 能量再聚集 - 再释放 - 再休息。 ——笔记哥《应对》 今日10Y国债利率最低1.800%、最高1.803%，0.3BP玩一天。债农：低波之后必见高波。上一次还是2024年6月，10Y国债困在2.30%附近装死，之后两个 月下行20BP。这次能不能也来个"向下高波"？ 外交部提醒大家近期避免"赴日"，股民表示：领导放心，我们只想"俘日"！今日大A小跌0.46%，日经225微跌0.1%，有点来气。不过听说高市早苗正在反 省其涉台言论，还算识相！ 【今日盘面】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1199亿元逆回购到期，净投放1631亿元。 税期资金面收敛转松，资金利率上行，DR001在1.51%附近，DR007在1.52%附近。 | | | | 银行间 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates room for OMO rate cuts, LPR cuts, and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a slight decline in the central tendency of the 10Y government bond yield [3][4] Economic Conditions - The current domestic market shows strong supply but weak demand, with structural contradictions still evident, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be solidified. The manufacturing PMI for October is at 49.0%, remaining below the 50.0% threshold for seven consecutive months [4][25] - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is correction rather than stimulation, leading to structural and mild impacts on prices. The key variables for future price trends will be the strength of demand recovery and the rhythm of policy coordination [4][25] Valuation Insights - After adjustments, the reasonableness of the 10Y government bond valuation has improved, attributed to the gradual fading of the "seesaw" effect. The correlation coefficient between the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans and the 10Y government bond yield has been consistently high, indicating a strong relationship [4][26][27] - A model was developed to estimate the 10Y government bond yield based on the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans, yielding a formula: 10Y government bond yield = (1.11 × RMB loan weighted average interest rate * 100 - 1.95) / 100, with an adjusted R² of 0.908 [4][27] Policy Environment - The report highlights the central bank's liquidity injection as a significant factor influencing the bond market. The net purchase scale of government bonds in the open market is monitored, indicating the central bank's actions to manage liquidity [29][30] Market Dynamics - The report notes that both the upward and downward space for interest rates in 2025 is limited, suggesting a stable outlook for the bond market [19][32] - The volatility of bond yields has decreased, with the volatility in 2024 recorded at 0.18 and from the beginning of 2025 to November 7 at 0.09, indicating a narrowing and shortening of yield fluctuations [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting its perceived decline in importance compared to the stock market, especially in light of recent economic data and market reactions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.805% after opening at 1.81% [5][6]. - Recent inflation data for October was slightly above expectations, contributing to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [5][6]. - The stock market showed mixed reactions, initially declining but later recovering as news of a potential end to the government shutdown emerged [5][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan, with a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan after 78.3 billion yuan matured [3]. - The liquidity in the market is tightening, with the DR001 and DR007 rates hovering around 1.48% and 1.50%, respectively [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.52% and R007 at 1.50%, reflecting a mixed trend in the short-term funding market [4][9]. - The article notes a divergence in expectations for the 10-year government bond yield, with forecasts ranging from a lower bound of 1.2% to an upper bound of 2.1% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent bond fund durations have increased. On November 7, the median duration (including leverage) of medium - and long - term bond funds rose by 0.14 years compared to November 3 [5][10]. - From a seasonal perspective, historical data shows that interest rates tend to decline from November to December. Current conditions are favorable for going long on the bond market, but the odds may be limited [5][10]. - Investors should pay attention to the issuance scale of the 30 - year ordinary treasury bonds to be issued in November and December. If the scale is around 300 billion yuan, the bond may not strengthen significantly; if it is around 700 billion yuan, it may strengthen [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - Bond fund durations have increased. Funds have increased their purchases of credit bonds, bought 30 - year treasury bonds, sold 10 - year treasury bonds, and increased their allocations of 10 - year policy financial bonds and 20 - and 30 - year local government bonds. Big banks continue to buy short - term bonds, and securities firms have slightly net - sold [5][10]. - Conditions are favorable for going long on the bond market, but the odds may be limited. Attention should be paid to the issuance scale of 30 - year ordinary treasury bonds [5][10][11]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking 3.2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.53bp to 1.40%, the 10 - year rose 1.98bp to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2.05bp to 2.16%. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread rose 0.07bp to 34.39bp, and the 10 - year CDB - 10 - year treasury bond spread rose 1.11bp to 13.47bp [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the 3 - year - 1 - year treasury bond spread rose 0.85bp to 4.04bp, the 5 - year - 3 - year spread fell 1.33bp to 14.24bp, the 7 - year - 5 - year spread rose 2.14bp to 12.65bp, the 10 - year - 7 - year spread fell 1.21bp to 10.04bp, the 20 - year - 10 - year spread rose 0.48bp to 33.42bp, and the 30 - year - 20 - year spread fell 0.41bp to 0.97bp [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.3.1 Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the inter - bank pledged repurchase balance decreased by 0.48 trillion yuan to 11.61 trillion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Changes - As of November 7, compared with November 3, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.34 percentage points to 106.99% [18]. 3.3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From November 3 to November 7, the average pledged repurchase turnover was 7.97 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover was about 7.14 trillion yuan, with an average overnight turnover ratio of 89.59% [22][23]. 3.3.4 Inter - bank Funding Operation - From November 3 to November 7, bank fund lending and single - day fund supply first increased and then decreased. As of November 7, the net fund lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.44 trillion yuan, and the single - day fund supply was 3.90 trillion yuan. Regarding funding rates, DR001 was 1.3321%, DR007 was 1.4130%, R001 was 1.3916%, and R007 was 1.4677% [24][27]. 3.4 Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Durations 3.4.1 Median Bond Fund Duration - As of November 7, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.72 years (de - leveraged), up 0.05 years from November 3; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.87 years, up 0.14 years [39]. 3.4.2 Median Interest - Rate Bond Fund Duration - As of November 7, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.83 years, up 0.10 years from November 3; the median duration (de - leveraged) was 3.34 years, up 0.04 years. The median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.62 years, up 0.10 years, and (de - leveraged) was 2.53 years, up 0.07 years [43]. 3.5 Bond Lending Balance Changes - As of November 6, compared with November 3, the borrowing volume of 10 - year CDB bonds fluctuated [46].

人民财讯10月28日电，中信证券研报认为，短期来看，央行恢复国债买卖释放了较大的宽松信号，一方 面宽货币逻辑延续，另一方面未来央行买债操作落地后可能形成买入信号，预计短期10Y国债利率可能 会迎来一轮小幅的中枢下行。然而中长期视角来看，伴随股市赚钱效应持续，风险偏好上行，而债基赎 回费率改革尚无定论，债市长期走势仍然存在较多的不确定性。尤其是伴随股市持续体现赚钱效应，近 两年资产荒支撑利率维持低位的逻辑能否延续值得关注，长期而言利率或维持宽幅的区间震荡格局。预 计债市短期下行空间打开，但中长期运行逻辑没有太大改变。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of Tier 2 and Perpetual (Two - Yong) bonds may not be over, and they still face risks of callback and repricing. However, they still have certain cost - effectiveness, especially 5 - year high - rating varieties [5][6]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market is likely to fluctuate and decline, and there are still concerns about the decline in spreads. It is difficult to reproduce the unilateral downward trend in April [5]. - After the official release of the new public offering sales regulations, the spread center of Two - Yong bonds and their yield may rise slightly [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Two - Yong Bonds' Cost - Effectiveness is Prominent - In September, affected by market risk appetite and rising interest rates, the bond market continued to adjust. After the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited opinions on the new public offering sales regulations on September 5, the bond market faced redemption pressure. Two - Yong bonds, as heavily - held by public funds, had significant declines, and the yields of 5Y and above Two - Yong bonds reached new highs for the year [5][12]. - In October, the stock market pulled back, the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate declined slightly, and the yields of urban investment bonds and Two - Yong bonds decreased. The Two - Yong bonds with larger previous declines had more obvious recoveries. As of now, the yields and credit spreads of 5Y credit assets are still at relatively high historical percentile levels for the year, and the decline may be limited [5][14]. 3.2 What to Focus on in Two - Yong Bonds - From a macro - fundamental perspective, Sino - US games and a weak economy support the bond market. However, the stock market rebound in October and concerns about the new public offering sales regulations still pose concerns about the decline in yields of quasi - interest - rate varieties [20]. - In terms of supply structure, the redemption of Two - Yong bonds reached a new high in September, the net financing gap widened, and banks faced capital replenishment pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Two - Yong bonds may not be weak due to "redeeming old and issuing new" [5][23]. - From the perspective of institutional behavior, the spread trend of Two - Yong bonds is more related to the net purchases of funds, wealth management products, and securities firms. Currently, the liquidity of Two - Yong bonds is okay, but the buying power of funds is not strong. The impact of the official release of the new public offering sales regulations remains to be observed [27]. - Historically, the bond market in the fourth quarter is likely to show a pattern of fluctuating recovery, and it mostly moves sideways in October. Currently, the trading volume and turnover rate of Two - Yong bonds have rebounded, and the decline space is limited. Attention can be paid to the effect of the interest - rate amplifier of Two - Yong bonds on increasing returns when interest rates decline [47]. 3.3 Which Two - Yong Bonds Still Have Cost - Effectiveness - From the perspective of asset comparison, except for 3Y - AA+ Tier 2 capital bonds, the historical percentiles of the yields of other Two - Yong bonds are higher than those of other varieties with the same maturity, still having certain cost - effectiveness. The yields of 3Y implied AAA - and AA+ perpetual bonds are higher than those of medium - short - term notes and Tier 2 capital bonds of the same maturity, at 76% and 18% historical percentile levels for the year respectively. The yields of 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds are higher than those of other credit assets, and the yields are all at more than 16% historical percentile levels for the year [53]. - From the perspective of credit spreads, high - implied - rating Two - Yong bonds have relatively higher cost - effectiveness, especially 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds. The 3Y implied AAA - perpetual bonds have relatively large spread compression space compared with Tier 2 capital bonds of the same rating and maturity, at the 50% historical percentile level for the year. The spreads of 5 - year high - implied - rating Two - Yong bonds compared with general credit bonds are more sufficient, and the 5Y implied AAA - perpetual bonds are worthy of attention, with a credit spread of 66bp, at the 59% historical percentile level for the year [58].

Group 1 - The report addresses key issues such as analyzing the yield spread between new and old bonds from the perspective of 30Y, 10Y government bonds, and 10Y policy bank bonds, as well as evaluating current trading opportunities for specific bonds [5][13] - The switching of active bonds is influenced by issuance plans, with the scale determining the active status for government bonds, while policy bank bonds rely more on market institutions' behaviors and preferences [5][6] - The new and old bond yield spread exhibits a cyclical pattern of "widening-convergence," where the spread typically widens after a new bond is issued and narrows as liquidity premiums are realized and new bonds are issued [5][14] Group 2 - For 30Y government bonds, the trading focus may remain on the larger scale bond 2500002.IB, while the trading opportunity for the new bond 2500006.IB may be limited due to its yield inversion with the active bond [5][25] - In the case of 10Y government bonds, if the fund redemption fee reform is implemented, the market attention may shift towards this bond type, with the new bond 250016.IB having the potential to become an active bond [31][35] - The 10Y policy bank bonds also show a similar pattern to government bonds, with the yield spread typically widening and then converging after switching, but the opportunities depend more on market sentiment and liquidity changes due to the lack of transparent issuance plans [43][47] Group 3 - The report suggests that investors should focus on structural opportunities, particularly monitoring the transition of 250016.IB to an active bond, especially in the context of potentially increased demand for self-managed bank allocations [48]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [5] Core Insights - The report discusses the dynamic measurement of the EVA balance point for banks' asset allocation between loans and bonds, emphasizing that EVA is just one of many factors influencing asset selection [1][12] - A positive correlation is expected between the change in EVA (△EVA) and the preference for bond investments over corporate loans, indicating that as △EVA rises, banks may shift their asset allocation towards bonds [2][13] - The report identifies a critical point (α) for corporate loan EVA, suggesting that when △EVA exceeds this point, banks should increase their allocation to government bonds [3][17] Summary by Sections Section 1: Bank's EVA Balance Point - The report highlights the importance of considering various factors such as national policy, regulatory requirements, and comprehensive returns from asset operations when evaluating the EVA of loans versus bonds [1][12] - It proposes a methodology to dynamically assess the EVA balance point by analyzing historical asset structure changes [1][12] Section 2: Historical Trends and Future Projections - From 2019 to 2023, a clear positive correlation between △EVA and the ratio of bond investments to corporate loans was observed, although a divergence occurred in the second half of 2024 due to increased government bond supply and strong institutional demand [2][16] - The report anticipates a return to a more balanced strategy for banks, focusing on asset allocation rather than speculative trading, with projections for △EVA to stabilize between 0.80% and 1.25% [18][19] Section 3: Current EVA Values and Implications - The latest value for corporate loan EVA is reported at 0.74%, with expectations for stability in loan pricing and improving loan quality [4][19] - The report concludes that the balance point for the 10Y government bond yield is estimated to be between 1.75% and 1.80%, indicating a critical threshold for banks' asset pricing decisions [20][19]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly for the 4th week of September 2025, focusing on bond market analysis from the perspective of institutional behavior [2][9] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The behavior of funds is crucial in the bond market, with their net purchases strongly correlated with interest rate trends. The instability of funds' liability side has increased due to the new sales fee regulations, and the impact of the regulations' implementation should be closely monitored [4][15] - The three institutional behavior changes (funds having nothing left to sell, brokerages closing short positions, and banks "picking up bargains") are favorable for the bond market. Future interest rates may decline due to funds repurchasing bonds, banks increasing allocations, and brokerages closing positions. Currently, interest rate products have a higher probability of success than Tier 2 and credit bonds [4][15] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Re - examination after Interest Rate Breakthrough 1.1 Three Changes in Institutional Behavior and Future Outlook - Funds are "sold out": Since Q3, funds have continuously reduced duration. As of September 26, 2025, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.8 years, and the cumulative net purchase of ultra - long treasury bonds (over 10Y) by funds has been negative since early September [3][9] - Brokerages are closing short positions: The borrowing volume of the top three active 10Y treasury bonds remains volatile, while that of 10Y CDB bonds has decreased, indicating brokerage short - position closing before the holiday [10] - Banks are "picking up bargains": Since August, joint - stock banks have continuously bought old 10Y treasury bonds, acting as a "buffer" during the bond market correction. Recently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have corrected rapidly, and funds are selling Tier 2 bonds more aggressively [3][14] 1.2 Yield Curve - Treasury bond yields generally increased. On a week - on - week basis, the 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 3Y yield increased by 3bp, the 5Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 7Y yield increased by 1bp, the 10Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 15Y yield increased by 1.5bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 2bp. In terms of percentiles, the 1Y dropped to the 10% percentile, and others had various percentile changes [16][18] - CDB bond yields also generally increased. The 1Y yield decreased by 0.5bp, the 3Y yield increased by 2bp, the 5Y yield increased by about 2.3bp, the 7Y yield increased by 4.6bp, the 10Y yield increased by 1.1bp, the 15Y yield increased by about 4.6bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 4.9bp. Percentiles also had corresponding changes [18] 1.3 Term Spread - The spread between treasury bonds and CDB bonds (1Y - DR001, 1Y - DR007) showed a differentiated trend, and the term spread generally widened [19] 2. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 2.1 Leverage Ratio - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and decreased. As of September 26, it was about 107.06%, up 0.32pct from last Friday and down 0.04pct from Monday [23] 2.2 Repurchase Transactions - From September 22 to September 26, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was about 7.3 trillion yuan, up 0.1 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily trading volume of overnight pledged repurchase was 5.55 trillion yuan, down 0.72 trillion yuan month - on - month. The average overnight trading volume ratio was 75.72%, down 11.92pct month - on - month [27][28] 2.3 Funding Situation - From September 22 to September 26, bank - based fund lending first increased and then decreased. On September 26, the net lending of large and policy banks was 4.09 trillion yuan, and joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks had a net borrowing of 0.28 trillion yuan. The main fund borrowers were brokerages, and money market funds' lending decreased. DR007, R007, 1YFR007, and 5YFR007 all fluctuated and increased, with different changes compared to last Friday [30] 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.1 Overall Duration - From September 22 to September 26, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.68 years (de - leveraged) and 2.79 years (including leverage). On September 26, the median duration (de - leveraged) remained unchanged from last Friday, and the median duration (including leverage) decreased by 0.01 year [41] 3.2 Duration by Bond Fund Type - As of September 26, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 3.53 years, down 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.52 years, up 0.01 year from last Friday. The de - leveraged durations also had corresponding changes [44] 4. Category Strategy Comparison - As of September 26, the Sino - US spread generally narrowed, and the implied tax rate (10Y CDB - treasury bond spread) narrowed at the short end and widened at the medium - and long - ends [48] 5. Bond Lending Balance Changes - On September 26, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds and 10Y CDB bonds increased, that of secondary active 10Y CDB bonds and active 30Y treasury bonds decreased, and that of secondary active 10Y treasury bonds remained unchanged. Except for brokerages, all other institutional lending concentrations increased [50]